Japan’s Economy Beats Expectations—But Is The Growth Real?

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 17, 2025

Japan’s economy outpaced forecasts in the fourth quarter, driven by a surge in exports. However, economists caution that the numbers may not be as strong as they seem, with domestic demand still showing signs of weakness.

Key Takeaways

Japan’s GDP grew 0.7% in Q4, exceeding the 0.3% increase economists predicted.
Exports provided the main boost, while domestic demand remained sluggish.
Capital spending rose by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of the 1% growth expected.
Annual GDP growth hit 2.8%, well above the 1% forecast but driven largely by statistical revisions.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008, setting the stage for further policy tightening.

A Closer Look: Real Growth Or Statistical Illusion?

Stefan Angrik, deputy director and senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, warned against reading too much into the numbers. Speaking with CNBC, he noted that the economy only appears to be expanding due to historical data revisions. Without them, Japan’s GDP would have shrunk in Q4.

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“Exports have been the key driver, while imports declined—highlighting the same weak domestic demand we’ve seen over the past two to three years. Maybe hold off on the champagne for now,” Angrik cautioned.

Looking Ahead: Caution Over Consumer Spending

Economists remain wary about Japan’s economic momentum in early 2025:

Citi’s Katsuhiko Aiba predicts that consumption will remain weak into Q1 2025, with a full recovery likely only after Q2.
Real wage growth is expected to stay negative, even as the government reinstates energy subsidies.
Consumer spending saw a 2.7% jump in December, the first increase since July 2024, but prior months showed contractions of 0.4% (November) and 1.3% (October).

Despite the Q4 surprise, full-year GDP growth for 2024 came in at just 0.1%, a steep drop from 1.5% in 2023. Following the data release, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 0.29%, while the yen strengthened by 0.2% to 152.02 per dollar.

With mixed signals from the economy, policymakers and investors will be watching closely to see whether Japan’s growth is truly sustainable—or just a statistical mirage.

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EU Agrees On Major Overhaul Of Financial Market Supervision

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 9, 2026

European Union finance ministers have reached agreement on a sweeping package designed to strengthen oversight of the bloc’s financial markets, in a move aimed at reducing fragmentation and improving the flow of capital across borders.

A Push To Deepen Capital Markets

The Market Integration and Supervision Package, or MISP, would grant the European Securities and Markets Authority direct supervision over major market operators that are currently regulated by national authorities. The reforms are intended to make Europe’s capital markets more integrated, more efficient and better able to channel savings into productive investment.

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According to the Irish presidency, the package is meant to help savings and investments move more freely across the European Union, improving access to finance for companies while giving households broader opportunities to earn returns on their savings.

What The Reform Would Change

Under the new framework, ESMA would take direct oversight of key trading venues, clearing houses, securities settlement bodies and crypto-asset service providers. The package would also establish a permanent, independent executive board within the regulator, strengthening its institutional capacity.

Market operators would be able to opt into a new EU-wide operating framework. In parallel, the reforms would seek to make national supervision more consistent and update rules governing trading, transaction completion, investment management and the use of blockchain technology.

Why The Agreement Matters

Supporters of deeper capital markets argue that Europe has long paid a price for regulatory inconsistency. While many rules are harmonised across the bloc, differences in enforcement and supervision have contributed to a patchwork system that can make cross-border investment slower and more costly.

A more integrated framework, proponents say, could lower costs for companies seeking funding and broaden the menu of investment options available to savers and institutional investors alike.

Outstanding Questions Remain

Despite the broad agreement, some important details remain unresolved. Trading venues operated by Deutsche Börse, the company behind the Frankfurt stock exchange, may remain outside ESMA’s direct supervision.

Euronews previously reported that Germany had secured an exemption for Deutsche Börse’s domestically focused trading venues, leaving part of the system under regional supervision. The latest announcement did not clarify whether that arrangement will stand.

A Step Forward For The Savings And Investments Union

Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen welcomed the deal, calling it a major advance for the Capital Markets Union and saying Europe had made more progress in 10 months than in the previous 10 years.

The agreement is an important milestone in the Savings and Investments Union, the EU’s broader effort to channel more of Europeans’ savings into investments that can support growth, innovation and competitiveness across the bloc.

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