Japan’s Economy Beats Expectations—But Is The Growth Real?

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 17, 2025

Japan’s economy outpaced forecasts in the fourth quarter, driven by a surge in exports. However, economists caution that the numbers may not be as strong as they seem, with domestic demand still showing signs of weakness.

Key Takeaways

Japan’s GDP grew 0.7% in Q4, exceeding the 0.3% increase economists predicted.
Exports provided the main boost, while domestic demand remained sluggish.
Capital spending rose by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of the 1% growth expected.
Annual GDP growth hit 2.8%, well above the 1% forecast but driven largely by statistical revisions.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008, setting the stage for further policy tightening.

A Closer Look: Real Growth Or Statistical Illusion?

Stefan Angrik, deputy director and senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, warned against reading too much into the numbers. Speaking with CNBC, he noted that the economy only appears to be expanding due to historical data revisions. Without them, Japan’s GDP would have shrunk in Q4.

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“Exports have been the key driver, while imports declined—highlighting the same weak domestic demand we’ve seen over the past two to three years. Maybe hold off on the champagne for now,” Angrik cautioned.

Looking Ahead: Caution Over Consumer Spending

Economists remain wary about Japan’s economic momentum in early 2025:

Citi’s Katsuhiko Aiba predicts that consumption will remain weak into Q1 2025, with a full recovery likely only after Q2.
Real wage growth is expected to stay negative, even as the government reinstates energy subsidies.
Consumer spending saw a 2.7% jump in December, the first increase since July 2024, but prior months showed contractions of 0.4% (November) and 1.3% (October).

Despite the Q4 surprise, full-year GDP growth for 2024 came in at just 0.1%, a steep drop from 1.5% in 2023. Following the data release, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 0.29%, while the yen strengthened by 0.2% to 152.02 per dollar.

With mixed signals from the economy, policymakers and investors will be watching closely to see whether Japan’s growth is truly sustainable—or just a statistical mirage.

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Central Bank Of Cyprus Balance Sheet Reflects Strong Eurosystem Position

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 17, 2026

Overview Of Financial Stability

The Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) has released its latest balance sheet, reaffirming its steadfast role within the Eurosystem. The balance sheet, featuring total assets and liabilities of €29.545 billion, underscores the institution’s stable financial posture at the close of January 2026.

Asset Allocation And Strategic Holdings

Governor Christodoulos Patsalides issued the balance sheet, which details the CBC’s asset composition under the Eurosystem framework. Notably, the bank’s gold and gold receivables amounted to €1.635 billion, providing a significant hedge and stability to its balance sheet. Additional asset categories include claims on non-euro area residents denominated in foreign currency at €1.099 billion, while claims on euro area residents in both foreign and domestic currency add further depth to its portfolio.

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The most substantial asset category, intra-Eurosystem claims, reached €19.438 billion, an indication of the CBC’s deep integration with its European counterparts. Furthermore, euro-denominated securities held by euro area residents contributed €6.587 billion. Despite a marked emphasis on these areas, lending to euro area credit institutions in monetary policy operations recorded no activity during the period.

Liability Structure And Monetary Policy Implications

On the liabilities side, banknotes in circulation contributed €3.218 billion. Liabilities to euro area credit institutions associated with monetary policy operations were notably the largest single category, totaling €17.636 billion. Supplementary liabilities included those to other euro area residents, which aggregated to €4.989 billion, with government liabilities playing a predominant role at €4.754 billion.

Other liability items, such as claims related to special drawing rights allocated by the International Monetary Fund at €494.193 million, and provisions of €596.571 million, further articulate the CBC’s exposure. Revaluation accounts stood at €1.643 billion, and overall capital and reserves were confirmed at €333.822 million, completing the picture of a well-capitalized institution.

Conclusive Insights And Strategic Alignment

The detailed breakdown illustrates the CBC’s sizeable intra-Eurosystem exposures, reinforcing its central role within Europe’s monetary landscape. With an asset-liability balance maintained at €29.545 billion, the CBC’s financial position remains robust, indicating a commitment to structural stability and strategic risk management.

This fiscal disclosure not only provides transparency into the CBC’s operations but also serves as a benchmark for comparative analysis among other central banks within the Eurosystem, highlighting the intricate balance between asset liquidity, regulatory oversight, and monetary policy imperatives.

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