Global markets were sent into a tailspin Thursday as President Donald Trump’s aggressive new trade tariffs sparked fears of a worldwide recession. Stock prices plunged, oil prices took a hit, and investors sought refuge in traditional safe havens—bonds, gold, and the yen—as the effects of the tariffs reverberated across the globe.
Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on imported goods, along with hefty ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on countries he accused of maintaining high trade barriers against the U.S., left traders rattled. The market’s reaction was swift and severe. In Europe, the 27-nation EU bloc now faces a reciprocal 20% tariff, sending major stock indices down between 1.3% and 2%. In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei dropped 2.7%, marking its worst performance in nearly two years. Wall Street futures also took a beating, falling 3%, while the U.S. dollar plummeted by over 1% to a six-month low.
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Analysts were quick to warn of the severe economic consequences of Trump’s tariffs. JPMorgan labeled the tariffs as “significantly higher than the realistic worst-case scenario” they had anticipated, while Fthe itch credit rating agency called them a “game-changer” for both the U.S. and the global economy. Deutsche Bank went further, calling it a “once-in-a-lifetime” event that could shave 1%-1.5% off U.S. growth this year. Fitch’s Olu Sonola predicted that “many countries will likely end up in a recession” if these tariffs remain in place long-term.
The market rush to the safety of government bonds, which provide guaranteed returns, drove U.S. Treasury yields to near 4%, while Germany’s 10-year yield—Europe’s benchmark borrowing rate—dropped 8.5 basis points to 2.64%. The rising tariffs will push import taxes in the U.S. to their highest level in a century, sparking expectations that central banks worldwide may soon slash interest rates, which in turn benefits bonds.
Tech stocks were among the hardest hit. Apple saw its market cap drop by over $240 billion after its shares fell 7% in after-hours trading, while Nvidia’s market value plummeted by 5.6%, losing $153 billion. This added to the ongoing loss of trillions from the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech giants.
Asia bore the brunt of the tariff pain. China faced a 34% levy, Japan a 24% tariff, South Korea 25%, and Vietnam saw a staggering 46% tariff on its exports. The Vietnamese stock market responded with a 6.7% drop. Meanwhile, Australia’s shares and the Aussie dollar also fell as the tariffs impacted the country too.
Oil prices, often seen as a barometer of economic activity, dropped by as much as 3%, with Brent futures falling below $73 a barrel, marking the worst day of the year. Meanwhile, gold surged to a record high above $3,160 an ounce before cooling off, while the Japanese yen soared more than 1.5%, trading at 147.01 yen to the dollar.
In the foreign exchange market, the Swiss franc reached its strongest level in four months, and the euro jumped 1% to $1.0970, as traders sought alternatives to the U.S. dollar.
Despite the tariff storm, China held its currency steady, limiting the yuan’s drop to just 0.4%. The world’s second-largest economy’s large domestic market and the expectation of government support helped limit losses in Hong Kong and Shanghai, with the former falling just 1.5% and the latter about 0.5%.
Looking ahead, attention now turns to China. As the country faces the brunt of the tariffs, questions remain about how Beijing will respond. Will China continue to wait for trade negotiations to yield results, or will it seek to “export” the shock via a devaluation of the yuan? The next few days will be critical in shaping the course of the global economy.
