Cyprus is expected to remain among the better-performing economies in the European Union, although growth is projected to moderate this year as higher energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and softer tourism activity weigh on economic momentum.

Growth Set To Moderate After A Strong Run

In its latest Article IV Consultation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that the Cypriot economy has remained resilient despite a challenging external environment. However, the Fund expects growth to slow compared with last year as rising energy costs and regional tensions begin to affect household incomes, business confidence, and tourism flows.

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“Growth is expected to moderate this year as higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions weigh on real incomes, tourism and confidence,” the IMF said.

The Fund projects GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, compared with 3.8% in 2025. Under a more adverse scenario involving a prolonged crisis in the Gulf region, growth could slow further to 1.7%.

Inflation Is Turning Higher Again

Alongside slower growth, inflation is expected to increase in the near term after easing significantly last year. According to the IMF, higher energy costs linked to developments in the Middle East are beginning to feed through to consumer prices.

“Inflation is projected to rise in the near term before easing. Risks are tilted to the downside, notably from a more prolonged war in the Middle East, tighter global financial conditions and weaker external demand. Medium-term prospects are more balanced, supported by strong fundamentals and reform momentum,” the Fund said.

The harmonised inflation rate, which declined to 0.8% in 2025, is forecast to rise to 3.5% this year before easing again to 1.5% in 2027.

Tourism Softens, But Fiscal And Financial Buffers Hold

While the IMF pointed to signs of weaker tourism activity, it said the broader economy continues to benefit from strong fiscal and financial fundamentals.

“Fiscal performance has remained strong, with continued surpluses and public debt declining below 60 per cent of GDP. The financial sector is sound, with strong capital and liquidity buffers and improving asset quality,” the report noted.

Domestic demand remains resilient, while exports of services continue to support economic activity. Sectors such as information and communications technology and tourism are expected to remain important contributors to growth, helping Cyprus maintain one of the strongest economic performances within the EU.

A Recovery Built On Policy Discipline

The IMF praised the Cypriot authorities for maintaining a strong fiscal position, rebuilding policy buffers and putting public debt on a clear downward trajectory. It also pointed to the country’s remarkable rebound since the 2013 banking crisis. Per capita GDP, measured against the EU average, has now returned to pre-crisis levels.

That said, the Fund urged policymakers to keep focusing on the quality of public finances. It said Cyprus should improve the efficiency of spending and taxation, prioritise high-quality public investment and maintain discipline in public wage growth.

Any support for households, the IMF added, should be temporary and tightly targeted. It welcomed the government’s recent comprehensive tax reform and a proposal to build financial assets in the social security fund.