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IMF Boosts Cyprus Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for Cyprus, raising the 2024 projection from 2.7% (April estimate) to 3.3%, according to the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO). For 2025, growth is also expected to increase to 3.1%, up from 2.9%. This places Cyprus among the top economies in the eurozone, with only Malta and Croatia expected to post higher growth rates at 5% and 3.4%, respectively. Cyprus’ Finance Ministry is even more optimistic, estimating 3.7% growth for 2024.

Inflation in Cyprus is forecasted to ease, with the IMF projecting a slight decrease to 2.2% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. This represents an improvement from the previous forecast of 2.3% for 2024. Unemployment is also expected to drop, with figures predicted to fall to 5.3% in 2024 (down from April’s 5.9% projection) and further to 5.1% in 2025.

On a less positive note, Cyprus’ current account deficit is expected to widen. The IMF predicts a deficit of -10.1% of GDP in 2024, compared to the -8.6% previously estimated, and -8.6% in 2025. The Cypriot government, however, has a more conservative forecast of -8.5% for 2024 and -7.6% for 2025.

Globally, the IMF forecasts steady growth of 3.2% for 2024 and 2025, with notable upgrades for the U.S. economy. U.S. growth is now expected to reach 2.8% in 2024, up from 2.7%, and 2.2% in 2025, revised from 1.9%. In contrast, Germany’s growth outlook has been downgraded, with zero growth expected in 2024, down from 0.2%, and a modest recovery to 0.8% in 2025.

This report highlights Cyprus’ strong economic recovery, buoyed by strategic fiscal policies, even as other global economies face slower growth.

Price Shifts: Temu And Shein React To Upcoming Tariffs

The online shopping world experienced a jolt as Temu and Shein, popular e-commerce platforms, recently adjusted their prices due to impending tariff changes. These platforms, known for offering budget-friendly options, have echoed with changes that might surprise many shoppers.

What Sparked the Price Hike?

Effective next week, a significant tariff will impact goods imported from China. This tariff follows the expiration of the “de minimis” exemption on May 2. This exemption previously allowed American shoppers to skip tariffs on items valued under $800. The new tariff demands a 120% fee or a flat $100 per postal item, increasing to $200 come June 1.

For instance, Temu’s two patio chairs jumped from $61.72 to $70.17 overnight, while a bathing suit on Shein saw a 91% surge in price. Yet, the price landscape isn’t consistently upward; a smart ring on Temu dropped by $3.

Implications for Consumers

Due to economic shifts and evolving trade rules, both Shein and Temu emphasized their efforts to maintain quality and affordability despite costlier operational expenses. They advised consumers to shop before April 25 to dodge the upcoming hikes, though it’s uncertain if this timing affects the 120% tariff applicability.

Impact on Lower-Income Households

The discontinuation of the “de minimis” exemption is poised to hit lower-income families hardest. Reports indicate these households spend a higher income proportion on apparel, and this change could burden them further.

Further economic insights highlight how industries adjust to challenges, such as in the face of AI-driven changes, potentially offsetting emissions concerns with economic gains.

For buyers and businesses alike, the shifting sands of trade laws call for adaptability and forethought.

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