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Illegal Employment on the Rise in Cyprus as Undeclared Work Declines

A recent report on the labour market in Cyprus has revealed a worrying increase in illegal employment, even as the rate of undeclared work shows signs of decline. The findings, which were discussed during a parliamentary session, have raised concerns among lawmakers and authorities alike about the ongoing challenges in combating labour exploitation and maintaining fair employment practices.

According to data presented by the Ministry of Labour, the issue of illegal employment—workers being hired without proper work permits or contracts—has escalated in recent months. This rise comes at a time when efforts to reduce undeclared work, where employees are not registered or insured, have seen moderate success. Despite progress in regulating the labour market, illegal employment remains a significant issue, especially in industries such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality.

Understanding the Distinction Between Illegal and Undeclared Employment

Illegal employment refers to the hiring of individuals who are not legally permitted to work, often due to their immigration status or lack of proper documentation. These workers are typically vulnerable to exploitation, receiving lower wages and lacking access to basic protections such as healthcare and social security benefits. In contrast, undeclared work involves the employment of individuals who may be legally allowed to work but are not officially registered, depriving them of insurance coverage and other legal protections.

While authorities have made strides in reducing undeclared work, particularly through stricter inspections and penalties, the rise in illegal employment presents a new challenge. Lawmakers pointed out that illegal employment poses even greater risks, as it not only harms the workers involved but also undermines the integrity of the labour market and contributes to unfair competition among businesses.

Factors Driving Illegal Employment

Several factors contribute to the increase in illegal employment, according to the Ministry of Labour. One key driver is the influx of migrant workers, many of whom lack the necessary documentation to work legally in Cyprus. Without proper channels for legal employment, these individuals often turn to unregulated jobs where they are vulnerable to exploitation.

The growing demand for cheap labour, particularly in sectors like construction and agriculture, also plays a significant role. Employers seeking to cut costs may resort to hiring illegal workers, bypassing the legal requirements for contracts, wages, and benefits. This practice not only puts workers at risk but also creates an uneven playing field, where businesses that comply with legal standards struggle to compete with those exploiting illegal labour.

Efforts to Combat Illegal Employment

In response to these findings, the government has pledged to intensify its efforts to combat illegal employment. This includes increasing inspections, imposing harsher penalties on employers found guilty of hiring illegal workers, and strengthening collaboration with immigration authorities. Additionally, there is a push to create more pathways for legal employment for migrant workers, ensuring they can enter the labour market with proper documentation and protections.

Citigroup Raises Eurobank Target Price Following Strong Q1 Results

Revised Target Price Reflects Strengthened Outlook

Citigroup raised its target price for Eurobank to €5.00 from €4.70 while maintaining a buy recommendation following the bank’s first-quarter results and upgraded medium-term profitability outlook. Based on Eurobank’s reference share price of €3.72 on May 15, 2026, Citigroup’s revised target implies upside potential of 34.4%, rising to 38.5% when the estimated dividend yield of 4.1% is included.

Enhanced Earnings And Comprehensive Forecasts

The upgraded analysis from Citigroup, as reported by Newmoney, points to bolstered momentum in net interest income and fee generation. The investment bank has revised its normalized earnings per share forecasts upward: 4% for 2026, 9% for 2027, and 14% for 2028, primarily driven by higher expected net interest income and increased commissions.

Scenario Analysis Offers Range Of Outcomes

Citigroup’s bullish scenario values Eurobank shares at €6.10, implying potential upside of 64%. Its downside scenario projects a share price of €3.55, approximately 4.6% below the May 15 reference level. The optimistic case assumes a return on tangible equity one percentage point higher, alongside a 100 basis point reduction in the cost of equity. Meanwhile, the negative scenario assumes a 1.5 percentage point lower return combined with a 200 basis point increase in the cost of equity.

Solid Q1 Results Support Growth Targets

Eurobank reported normalized net profits of €351 million during the first quarter, broadly in line with market expectations. Reported net profit reached €331 million after a €35 million expense linked to a voluntary exit programme involving around 200 employees. The programme is expected to generate annual savings of approximately €14 million. Net interest income increased 3% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding consensus forecasts by 2% and supporting expectations that the bank could surpass its €2.6 billion target for 2026.

Looking Ahead: Ambitious Growth And Profitable Outlook

Organic loan growth reached €1.1 billion during the quarter, supporting management’s target for €3.8 billion in annual organic credit expansion. Fee income also rose 20% year-on-year, outperforming forecasts by 4%. Citigroup projects Eurobank’s net profit will reach €1.45 billion in 2026, with earnings per share of €0.40 and a dividend of €0.20 per share.

By 2028, the bank forecasts net profit of €1.76 billion alongside further improvement in profitability metrics and dividend yield. The revised projections reinforce expectations that Eurobank will continue benefiting from stronger lending activity, resilient fee income and improving operational efficiency.

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