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Illegal Employment on the Rise in Cyprus as Undeclared Work Declines

A recent report on the labour market in Cyprus has revealed a worrying increase in illegal employment, even as the rate of undeclared work shows signs of decline. The findings, which were discussed during a parliamentary session, have raised concerns among lawmakers and authorities alike about the ongoing challenges in combating labour exploitation and maintaining fair employment practices.

According to data presented by the Ministry of Labour, the issue of illegal employment—workers being hired without proper work permits or contracts—has escalated in recent months. This rise comes at a time when efforts to reduce undeclared work, where employees are not registered or insured, have seen moderate success. Despite progress in regulating the labour market, illegal employment remains a significant issue, especially in industries such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality.

Understanding the Distinction Between Illegal and Undeclared Employment

Illegal employment refers to the hiring of individuals who are not legally permitted to work, often due to their immigration status or lack of proper documentation. These workers are typically vulnerable to exploitation, receiving lower wages and lacking access to basic protections such as healthcare and social security benefits. In contrast, undeclared work involves the employment of individuals who may be legally allowed to work but are not officially registered, depriving them of insurance coverage and other legal protections.

While authorities have made strides in reducing undeclared work, particularly through stricter inspections and penalties, the rise in illegal employment presents a new challenge. Lawmakers pointed out that illegal employment poses even greater risks, as it not only harms the workers involved but also undermines the integrity of the labour market and contributes to unfair competition among businesses.

Factors Driving Illegal Employment

Several factors contribute to the increase in illegal employment, according to the Ministry of Labour. One key driver is the influx of migrant workers, many of whom lack the necessary documentation to work legally in Cyprus. Without proper channels for legal employment, these individuals often turn to unregulated jobs where they are vulnerable to exploitation.

The growing demand for cheap labour, particularly in sectors like construction and agriculture, also plays a significant role. Employers seeking to cut costs may resort to hiring illegal workers, bypassing the legal requirements for contracts, wages, and benefits. This practice not only puts workers at risk but also creates an uneven playing field, where businesses that comply with legal standards struggle to compete with those exploiting illegal labour.

Efforts to Combat Illegal Employment

In response to these findings, the government has pledged to intensify its efforts to combat illegal employment. This includes increasing inspections, imposing harsher penalties on employers found guilty of hiring illegal workers, and strengthening collaboration with immigration authorities. Additionally, there is a push to create more pathways for legal employment for migrant workers, ensuring they can enter the labour market with proper documentation and protections.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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