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Illegal Employment on the Rise in Cyprus as Undeclared Work Declines

A recent report on the labour market in Cyprus has revealed a worrying increase in illegal employment, even as the rate of undeclared work shows signs of decline. The findings, which were discussed during a parliamentary session, have raised concerns among lawmakers and authorities alike about the ongoing challenges in combating labour exploitation and maintaining fair employment practices.

According to data presented by the Ministry of Labour, the issue of illegal employment—workers being hired without proper work permits or contracts—has escalated in recent months. This rise comes at a time when efforts to reduce undeclared work, where employees are not registered or insured, have seen moderate success. Despite progress in regulating the labour market, illegal employment remains a significant issue, especially in industries such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality.

Understanding the Distinction Between Illegal and Undeclared Employment

Illegal employment refers to the hiring of individuals who are not legally permitted to work, often due to their immigration status or lack of proper documentation. These workers are typically vulnerable to exploitation, receiving lower wages and lacking access to basic protections such as healthcare and social security benefits. In contrast, undeclared work involves the employment of individuals who may be legally allowed to work but are not officially registered, depriving them of insurance coverage and other legal protections.

While authorities have made strides in reducing undeclared work, particularly through stricter inspections and penalties, the rise in illegal employment presents a new challenge. Lawmakers pointed out that illegal employment poses even greater risks, as it not only harms the workers involved but also undermines the integrity of the labour market and contributes to unfair competition among businesses.

Factors Driving Illegal Employment

Several factors contribute to the increase in illegal employment, according to the Ministry of Labour. One key driver is the influx of migrant workers, many of whom lack the necessary documentation to work legally in Cyprus. Without proper channels for legal employment, these individuals often turn to unregulated jobs where they are vulnerable to exploitation.

The growing demand for cheap labour, particularly in sectors like construction and agriculture, also plays a significant role. Employers seeking to cut costs may resort to hiring illegal workers, bypassing the legal requirements for contracts, wages, and benefits. This practice not only puts workers at risk but also creates an uneven playing field, where businesses that comply with legal standards struggle to compete with those exploiting illegal labour.

Efforts to Combat Illegal Employment

In response to these findings, the government has pledged to intensify its efforts to combat illegal employment. This includes increasing inspections, imposing harsher penalties on employers found guilty of hiring illegal workers, and strengthening collaboration with immigration authorities. Additionally, there is a push to create more pathways for legal employment for migrant workers, ensuring they can enter the labour market with proper documentation and protections.

AI Spending Is Complicating The Fed’s Fight Against Inflation

Silicon Valley leaders have long argued that artificial intelligence will make technology and services dramatically cheaper. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has described a future where intelligence becomes extremely inexpensive, while Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has predicted that AI and robotics will create greater abundance and drive down costs.

So far, those benefits have yet to materialise at scale. AI adoption remains relatively slow, while the enormous investment needed for data centres and AI infrastructure is putting pressure on electricity prices, supply chains and other costs. For the Federal Reserve, this creates a difficult balancing act: AI could eventually boost productivity and reduce inflation, but its current buildout is contributing to higher prices.

OpenAI chief economist Ronnie Chatterji said AI needs to be adopted by organisations and generate measurable value before its broader economic impact becomes visible in productivity statistics.

AI Adoption Remains Uneven

Capital spending on AI infrastructure in the U.S. is expected to reach $581 billion this year, according to Goldman Sachs Research, with global investment potentially reaching $1 trillion.

Despite the scale of spending, adoption remains far from universal. A May survey by the U.S. Census Bureau found that 17% to 20% of U.S. businesses reported using AI, with adoption significantly higher among large companies.

Companies that have implemented AI at scale also highlight the challenges. Julie Averill, former CIO of Lululemon, said successful deployment requires changes in employee behaviour and trust in the technology. OpenAI has observed a similar divide: its most advanced business users deploy AI at around eight times the rate of average companies.

Why Productivity Gains May Take Time

Economists point to the limits of automation. AI can perform individual tasks effectively, but many jobs combine tasks that are difficult to automate.

Stanford professor Charles Jones refers to these as “weak links”. Radiology, for example, involves interpreting scans but also communicating with patients and working with colleagues. AI can automate part of the job without eliminating the profession itself.

As a result, the full economic impact of AI may not become clear until businesses adopt the technology more broadly and reorganise their operations around it.

AI Adds To The Fed’s Policy Challenge

AI’s economic impact has become part of the Federal Reserve’s policy debate. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has argued that AI could eventually become a significant disinflationary force by increasing productivity and strengthening U.S. competitiveness.

Other officials are more cautious. In July, the Fed kept interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, while some officials expressed concern that AI infrastructure spending could add to inflationary pressures.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari pointed to massive data-centre investment as a new source of demand. Household electricity prices rose 10% in the two years through July, compared with a 6.2% increase in overall consumer prices. Meanwhile, shortages of chips and other AI components are pushing up costs. JPMorgan Chase estimates that DRAM prices could rise 400% by the end of 2026 compared with 2024.

Warsh has consequently adopted a more cautious tone, saying that while AI investment is laying the groundwork for future growth, the timing and scale of its economic effects remain difficult to predict.

For the Fed, the challenge is clear: AI could eventually deliver major productivity gains, but the cost of building that future is already showing up in the economy.

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