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IATA Reports 3.8% Increase In Global Air Travel Demand

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that global air travel demand increased in January 2026, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) rising by 3.8% compared with the same month a year earlier. Available seat kilometres (ASK) increased by 3.5%, while the global passenger load factor reached 82%, the highest level recorded for January

Record Load Factors And International Growth

International travel recorded stronger growth than domestic markets. Passenger demand on international routes increased by 5.9%, while capacity expanded by 5.8% compared with January 2025. These figures brought the international load factor to 82.5%, the highest level recorded for January in this segment. Domestic markets recorded more limited changes. Demand increased by 0.1%, while capacity declined by 0.4%. The domestic load factor reached 81.2%.

Impact Of Lunar New Year Timing

IATA noted that the timing of the Lunar New Year influenced year-over-year comparisons. In 2025, the holiday occurred in January, while in 2026 it fell in February. According to IATA Director General Willie Walsh, this calendar shift partly explains the 3.8% increase recorded for January. Walsh said underlying travel demand in 2026 continues to show growth.

Outlook And Strategic Implications

Industry schedules indicate that global seat capacity could increase by 5.2% by March, which would represent the fastest expansion since April 2024. Walsh also noted that geopolitical developments may affect passenger demand and fuel costs. He said governments should continue to protect civil aviation operations and ensure passenger safety.

Regional Trends And Market Dynamics

Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region reported a 4.4% increase in demand while capacity increased by 5.2%. Load factors in the region reached 85.9%. European carriers recorded demand growth of 6.3%, while North American airlines reported a 3.4% increase. Latin American airlines saw demand rise by 11.4% and capacity by 8.9%, resulting in a load factor of 86.5%. African airlines also recorded increases, with demand rising by 11.7% and capacity by 10.1%.

Looking Ahead

Walsh said average airfares are expected to decline in real terms during 2026, continuing a long-term trend in the aviation sector. At the same time, airlines continue to face higher costs related to infrastructure charges, regulatory requirements and energy transition policies. He also noted that 2025 recorded the slowest pace of new airline start-ups since 1999. According to Walsh, this development may raise questions for governments focused on maintaining competition in the aviation industry. The report also points to ongoing challenges for airlines as the industry expands capacity and adapts to regulatory and cost pressures.

Copyright Law Struggles To Keep Up With AI Training

Courts Are Still Applying Old Copyright Rules To AI

AI companies train models on enormous amounts of published material, including books, articles and academic research. Whether using that content without authors’ permission violates copyright law remains unresolved.

Much of the debate centres on fair use, which allows copyrighted material to be used without permission in certain circumstances. Courts consider factors such as the purpose of the use, how much material was involved and its impact on the original market.

Anthropic Case Sets An Important Precedent

A major case involving Anthropic and a group of authors provided one of the clearest rulings so far. Judge William Alsup found that using copyrighted books to train AI models was lawful, comparing the process to people reading and studying literature before creating something new.

Anthropic was nevertheless ordered to pay $1.5 billion in a settlement. The penalty concerned books the company had obtained from illegal online libraries rather than the AI training itself.

For AI companies, that distinction could prove significant because it separates studying copyrighted material from directly copying it.

Competition Could Be The Key Issue

A case involving Thomson Reuters and Ross Intelligence offers a different perspective. A court ruled that Ross could not claim fair use after using Reuters’ copyrighted material to develop a competing AI-powered legal research platform.

The decision suggests courts may be less willing to consider AI training fair use when copyrighted content is used to build a product that directly competes with the original.

For authors, an unresolved question is whether AI-generated content should be considered competition for the works used to train these models.

The Law Has Yet To Catch Up

US copyright law predates generative AI by decades, leaving courts to apply old principles to new technology. Questions also remain over copyright protection for AI-generated works. In Thaler v. Perlmutter, a court ruled that material created entirely by AI cannot receive copyright protection.

Major AI companies remain involved in copyright litigation, and different courts could reach different conclusions. For now, there is no universal rule: the legality of AI training will depend on the circumstances of each case and how courts ultimately interpret copyright and fair use.

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