The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that global air travel demand increased in January 2026, with revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) rising by 3.8% compared with the same month a year earlier. Available seat kilometres (ASK) increased by 3.5%, while the global passenger load factor reached 82%, the highest level recorded for January

Record Load Factors And International Growth

International travel recorded stronger growth than domestic markets. Passenger demand on international routes increased by 5.9%, while capacity expanded by 5.8% compared with January 2025. These figures brought the international load factor to 82.5%, the highest level recorded for January in this segment. Domestic markets recorded more limited changes. Demand increased by 0.1%, while capacity declined by 0.4%. The domestic load factor reached 81.2%.

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Impact Of Lunar New Year Timing

IATA noted that the timing of the Lunar New Year influenced year-over-year comparisons. In 2025, the holiday occurred in January, while in 2026 it fell in February. According to IATA Director General Willie Walsh, this calendar shift partly explains the 3.8% increase recorded for January. Walsh said underlying travel demand in 2026 continues to show growth.

Outlook And Strategic Implications

Industry schedules indicate that global seat capacity could increase by 5.2% by March, which would represent the fastest expansion since April 2024. Walsh also noted that geopolitical developments may affect passenger demand and fuel costs. He said governments should continue to protect civil aviation operations and ensure passenger safety.

Regional Trends And Market Dynamics

Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region reported a 4.4% increase in demand while capacity increased by 5.2%. Load factors in the region reached 85.9%. European carriers recorded demand growth of 6.3%, while North American airlines reported a 3.4% increase. Latin American airlines saw demand rise by 11.4% and capacity by 8.9%, resulting in a load factor of 86.5%. African airlines also recorded increases, with demand rising by 11.7% and capacity by 10.1%.

Looking Ahead

Walsh said average airfares are expected to decline in real terms during 2026, continuing a long-term trend in the aviation sector. At the same time, airlines continue to face higher costs related to infrastructure charges, regulatory requirements and energy transition policies. He also noted that 2025 recorded the slowest pace of new airline start-ups since 1999. According to Walsh, this development may raise questions for governments focused on maintaining competition in the aviation industry. The report also points to ongoing challenges for airlines as the industry expands capacity and adapts to regulatory and cost pressures.