HSBC Adjusts Target Prices For Greek Banks, Highlights Rising Dividends As Key Attraction

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 27, 2025

HSBC has revised its target prices for Greek banks, with an emphasis on increasing dividends as the main factor attracting investors, even as profitability momentum slows.

For Alpha Bank, the target price is set at €3.05, up from €3, with a “buy” recommendation and a potential upside of 75.3%. Eurobank’s target remains unchanged at €3.50, also with a “buy” rating and a 44% upside potential. National Bank’s target has increased to €9.90, up from €9, with a “hold” recommendation and a 16.2% upside margin, while Piraeus Bank’s target is raised to €7.25 from €6, with a “buy” rating and a 63.7% upside potential.

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HSBC notes that the sector’s main appeal lies in the anticipated rise in dividends, with a forecasted 27% increase in dividends per share by 2026, leading to dividend yields of 7-10%. The outlook is supported by strong nine-month 2024 results, improving capital strength, better credit ratings, and the limited impact of faster DTC amortization, which positions all banks to achieve a payout ratio of 50% by 2026.

Despite profitability declines due to lower interest rates, higher payouts will likely drive further stock appreciation, with HSBC indicating that lower book valuations and high dividend yields leave room for gains. The profitability of Greek systemic banks is expected to decline by 9% in 2025, but this follows a strong base. However, HSBC has revised its 2024/25/26 profit forecasts upwards by 16/14/20% on average, reflecting factors like robust credit expansion in Greece, asset management momentum, and a reduction in the cost of risk.

HSBC has downgraded National Bank to a “hold” from a “buy” due to limited downward adjustment potential in its funding costs, which may result in weaker net interest income (NII) prospects over the next two years. Conversely, Piraeus Bank stands out with a 10% dividend yield for 2026, one of the highest in CEEMEA. Eurobank is favored for its successful capital allocation and attractive valuation, while Alpha Bank is seen as the most accessible exposure to Greek banks, with a positive earnings outlook and a compressed valuation.

While Greek banks are appealing, HSBC also highlights alternatives with better combinations of earnings growth and dividend yield, including PKO, Moneta, and Isbank, particularly due to factors such as reduced mortgage loan provisions and favorable shifts in interest rates.

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ECB Launches Geopolitical Stress Tests For 110 Eurozone Banks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

March 9, 2026

The European Central Bank is preparing a new round of geopolitical stress tests aimed at assessing potential risks to major financial institutions across the euro area. Up to 110 systemic banks, including institutions in Greece and the Bank of Cyprus, will take part in the exercise, which examines how geopolitical events could affect financial stability.

Timeline And Testing Process

Banks are expected to submit initial data on March 16, 2026. Supervisors will review the information in April, while the final results are scheduled to be published in July 2026. The process forms part of the ECB’s broader supervisory work to evaluate financial system resilience under different risk scenarios.

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Geopolitical Shock As The Primary Concern

The stress tests place particular emphasis on geopolitical risks. These may include armed conflicts, economic sanctions, cyberattacks and energy supply disruptions. Such events can affect banks through changes in market conditions, borrower solvency and sector exposure. Lending portfolios linked to regions or industries affected by geopolitical developments may face higher risk levels.

Reverse Stress Testing: A Tailored Approach

Unlike traditional stress tests that apply the same scenario to all institutions, the reverse stress test requires each bank to define a scenario that could significantly affect its capital position. Banks must identify a geopolitical shock that could reduce their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio by at least 300 basis points. Institutions are also expected to assess potential effects on liquidity, funding conditions and broader economic indicators such as GDP and unemployment.

Customized Risk Assessments And Supervisor Collaboration

This methodology allows banks to submit risk assessments based on their own exposures and operational structures. The approach is intended to help supervisors understand how geopolitical events could affect institutions differently and to support discussions between banks and regulators on risk management and contingency planning.

Differentiated Vulnerabilities Across Countries

A joint report by the ECB and the European Systemic Risk Board indicates that countries respond differently to geopolitical shocks. The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to higher energy prices and inflation across Europe, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Greece and Austria experienced increases in borrowing costs and lower investor confidence. Germany, France and Portugal recorded more moderate changes, while Spain, Malta, Latvia and Finland showed intermediate levels of exposure.

Conclusion

The geopolitical stress tests will not immediately lead to additional capital requirements for banks. Their results will feed into the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP). ECB supervisors may use the findings when assessing capital adequacy, risk management practices and operational resilience at individual institutions.

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