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High Interest Rates Continue To Put Pressure On Loan Demand

Loan demand continued to decline in the first quarter of 2024, with banks attributing the decline to high interest rates, while the terms and conditions for granting loans to businesses became tighter in the first quarter of 2024 after three consecutive quarters in which they had remained unchanged.

The criteria for lending to households remained stable.

According to the Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey for the first quarter of 2024, the credit standards, as well as the terms and conditions for loans to enterprises, tightened in the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to Banks’ reduced risk tolerance, as well as their perception of increased risk about the general economic situation and the outlook for the economy.

On the other hand, the credit standards for loans to households remained unchanged in the first quarter of 2024, for mortgage loans, consumer and other loans.

The terms and conditions for housing loans also remained unchanged while they tightened for consumer credit and other lending to households.

The net demand for business loans decreased, in the first quarter of 2024, and at the same time, the net demand for housing loans as well as for consumer credit and other lending also decreased.

However, the survey notes that increased financing needs for fixed investment, possibly reflecting the positive growth prospects of the Cypriot economy, as well as debt refinancing/restructuring, contributed positively to loan demand.

As far as households are concerned, the net decline in demand for mortgage loans is attributed by banks to higher interest rates, lower consumer confidence and a weakening housing market outlook.

Finally, according to banks’ expectations for the second quarter of 2024, the lending criteria for both businesses and households are expected to remain unchanged compared to the previous quarter. At the same time, a decline in net demand for consumer and other loans from households is expected, while both net demand for business loans and mortgage loans from households are expected to remain stable.

Bitcoin Surges 23% In A Week As Investor Optimism Returns

Bitcoin was on track for a weekly gain of around 23% on Friday as a series of positive macroeconomic and policy developments boosted investor sentiment.

The cryptocurrency was trading about 6% higher at roughly $77,000, up from around $62,800 at the start of the week. Crypto-related stocks also rallied, with Coinbase and Circle gaining more than 9%, while Strategy rose 7%.

Macro Factors Fuel Rally

Bitcoin’s latest surge began Wednesday after Treasury yields fell sharply following a major intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market. Lower yields eased pressure on risk assets and helped trigger a broader move into cryptocurrencies.

The rally was further amplified by a major short squeeze. Around $2.7 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass.

Max Stuedlein, head of Partnerships at Sygnum APAC, said the move reflected an alignment of macroeconomic and policy catalysts, including the Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated government debt.

Clarity Act Boosts Sentiment

Investor confidence improved further on Thursday as the White House and crypto industry leaders made a final push to advance the Clarity Act in the coming weeks.

The legislation is widely viewed as a potential catalyst for the crypto market, although its chances of passing remain relatively limited.

Despite the rally, bitcoin remains well below its 2026 high of $94,820 reached in January and its all-time high of $126,198, set last October.

Analysts See More Volatility Ahead

Lucy Gazmararian, founder and managing partner at Token Bay Capital, said the crypto market may be approaching the end of its bear cycle.

She expects bitcoin could experience one more decline of around 20% before the market turns, pointing to historical cycles and the recent liquidation of heavily leveraged short positions.

Gazmararian also described bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, while warning that its short-term price remains highly volatile and driven by market cycles.

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