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Gulf Markets Subdued Amid US Tariff Concerns And Powell’s Rate Comments

Major stock markets in the Gulf showed caution in early trading on Wednesday, as investors remained uncertain about the future of U.S. import tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s approach to rate cuts. U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade advisers were finalizing plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose duties on U.S. imports, increasing fears of a global trade war.

In Saudi Arabia, the benchmark index (.TASI) dropped 0.3%, largely due to a 1.6% decline in petrochemical producer Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC). Saudi Aramco also saw a 0.3% loss. Oil prices, a key driver for Gulf markets, edged lower as U.S. crude stockpiles increased and tariff concerns dampened sentiment, although stronger refining margins helped to limit losses.

In Dubai, the main share index (.DFMGI) decreased by 0.5%, impacted by a 3.8% fall in Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU), despite the bank reporting an increase in annual profit. However, in Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI) edged up by 0.1%, buoyed by a 0.5% increase in Aldar Properties (ALDAR.AD), which reported a 37% year-on-year rise in fourth-quarter profit.

Qatar’s market (.QSI) declined by 0.3%, with telecom firm Ooredoo (ORDS.QA) falling by 1.9%. Investor attention is now focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due at 1330 GMT.

Investor expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have been scaled back, with many now anticipating the central bank will hold rates steady in March and May. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that the economy is in a strong position, and while the Fed isn’t in a hurry to cut rates, it remains ready to do so if inflation drops or the job market weakens.

Assessing The Divergent Energy Futures: The European Union Versus Cyprus

European Electricity Transition: A Bold New Horizon

A recent report, European Electricity Review 2026, published by Think Tank Ember, highlights a stark disparity between the energy strategies of the European Union and Cyprus. While the EU is rapidly advancing its renewable energy agenda, underpinned by an aggressive shift away from fossil fuels, Cyprus remains reliant on an increasingly costly and pollutant electricity system dominated by conventional fossil fuel sources.

European Union Electricity Mix 2025

The EU’s electricity landscape continues to shift toward renewables at a notable pace. Wind and solar energy now play a central role in the bloc’s power generation, gradually overtaking fossil fuels.

According to projections for 2025, wind contributes 16.9% of electricity production and solar 13.2%, bringing their combined share to 30.1%, slightly ahead of fossil fuels at 29%. Hydropower remains significant at 17.6%, although drought conditions have constrained its output in several regions. In total, renewable sources account for 47.7% of the EU electricity mix, marking a historic milestone in the region’s green transition. Nuclear energy remains stable at around 23%, continuing to provide a consistent base load.

Technology/Source Percentage (%) Observations
Wind 16.9 Steady increase since 2015
Solar 13.2 Rapid development in recent years
Wind + Solar 30.1 Surpassed fossil fuels (29%)
Hydroelectric 17.6 Impacted by drought
Total Renewables 47.7 Driving the green transition
Coal 9.2 Marked decrease, nearing obsolescence
Natural Gas 16.7 Gradual decline, with a spike in 2025 due to reduced hydroelectric output
Other Fossil Fuels 3.1 Gradual decrease
Total Fossils 29.0 Substantial reduction
Nuclear 23.3 Maintained at steady levels

Cyprus’ Energy Conundrum In 2025

Cyprus presents a very different picture. Approximately 74% of its electricity generation still comes from oil and heavy fuel oil through traditional thermal units. Although the country has achieved strong photovoltaic growth, reaching 21% solar penetration, this progress is limited by insufficient grid modernization and the lack of large-scale storage capacity.

Despite being among EU leaders in solar installations for each person, Cyprus faces curtailment issues where excess renewable energy cannot be absorbed by the grid. Estimates suggest that up to 22% of renewable generation is occasionally curtailed, representing roughly 6–7% of annual electricity demand.

Energy Source Percentage (%) Observations
Oil/Heavy Fuel Oil 74 Dominant conventional thermal units
Solar 21 Robust photovoltaic growth without supportive storage
Wind 4 Minimal contribution
Other Renewables (Biomass) 1 Limited deployment
Total Renewables 26 A modest increase with potential for further expansion

Consequences For Electricity Pricing

The inefficiencies in managing renewable integration and the persisting reliance on fossil fuels have had a direct impact on electricity prices in Cyprus. Although temporary measures, such as a 10% VAT reduction through 2027, have been implemented, the cost per kilowatt-hour for 2025 is forecast at 31 cents —significantly above the EU average of 24.6 cents. This pricing imbalance erodes consumer purchasing power and undermines the competitiveness of the local economy.

Strategic Recommendations For Reform

A decisive recalibration of Cyprus’ electricity sector is essential to bridge the gap with its European counterparts. Key strategic recommendations include:

  1. Establishment Of An Independent Coordination Authority: Create an autonomous body dedicated to aligning the efforts of relevant agencies to reduce electricity costs and secure a reliable energy supply.
  2. Development Of A Long-Term Electric Generation Strategy: Formulate a strategic plan that balances the rational expansion of renewable energy with conventional sources, incorporating integrated energy storage solutions and robust system management protocols.
  3. Prioritization Of Centralized Energy Storage And Grid Adaptation: Emphasize the need for centralized energy storage facilities and the reinforcement of distribution networks to stabilize the supply and effectively absorb surplus renewable generation.

Conclusion

Cyprus stands at a critical crossroads. To achieve affordable electricity and remain competitive, decisive reform and strategic investment in renewable infrastructure are imperative. Failure to act could exacerbate both economic and social challenges, further distancing Cyprus from the progressive energy blueprint exemplified by the European Union.

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