Greek Systemic Banks Forecast Robust Profitability and Strategic Dividend Payouts

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

August 5, 2025

Strong Q2 Performance Sets the Stage

Greece’s four systemic banks continue to deliver impressive profitability, with forecasts projecting total earnings to reach approximately €4.7 billion by the end of 2025. This performance is bolstered by sustained credit activity and a full-year net credit expansion estimate of €13 billion or more.

Sustained Credit Growth and Lending Dynamics

Analysts note that the banks’ robust credit operations are a key driver of this fiscal strength. Business lending is expanding rapidly, fueled by broader economic growth and significant disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. However, mortgage lending remains subdued, constrained by high property costs and limited household incomes. Eurobank’s foreign loan portfolio, in particular, has been a major contributor to overall performance, while domestic mortgage credit continues to stagnate.

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Strategic Dividend Distribution

In line with international practices, all four banks—Piraeus, Eurobank, National Bank of Greece (NBG), and Alpha Bank—have approved interim cash dividend payouts. These distributions, ranging from 10% to 20% of net profits with yields between 1.2% and 2.4%, reflect a return to stability and instill confidence in the sector. NBG leads the field with a €260 million payout, both in absolute terms and as a 20% share of profits, while Piraeus Bank opts for a more conservative 10% allocation. Although share buyback programs are on hold due to elevated stock valuations, several institutions are poised to resume them in the future. Notably, NBG has also signaled the potential for a final dividend payout exceeding 60% of annual earnings.

Resilient Interest Income and Capitalisation

Resilience in net interest income, driven by strong lending volumes and a predominance of low-yield savings and current deposits, underscores the banks’ performance. With 80% of Greek retail savings deposits held in NBG’s portfolio, the banks are well-positioned to weather market fluctuations. Despite anticipating a rate cut in September, industry experts do not expect interest rates to drop below 1.5%, which supports steady income flows and reinforces profitability forecasts.

Future Strategies and Mergers & Acquisitions

Each bank is pursuing distinct strategic pathways in the mergers and acquisitions landscape. NBG is actively exploring strategic acquisition opportunities, Alpha Bank is focused on pursuing investments with a minimum 15% return on investment that boost both capital and earnings per share without impacting dividend policy, and Eurobank is scouting for consolidation prospects outside Greece, particularly in Bulgaria’s evolving banking market. Piraeus Bank is dedicated to finalizing its national insurance process and closing a Danish settlement anticipated to strengthen its capital base.

Conclusion

The sustained interest income and strategic initiatives underpinning these banks provide a robust foundation for their optimistic 2025 outlook. With diversified approaches to lending, dividend distribution, and capital management, these institutions are set to navigate the evolving market landscape and reinforce their positions as pillars of the Greek banking sector.

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Cyprus Income Distribution 2024: An In-Depth Breakdown of Economic Classes

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

December 24, 2025

New findings from the Cyprus Statistical Service offer a comprehensive analysis of the nation’s income stratification in 2024. The report, titled Population By Income Class, provides critical insights into the proportions of the population that fall within the middle, upper, and lower income brackets, as well as those at risk of poverty.

Income Distribution Overview

The data for 2024 show that 64.6% of the population falls within the middle income class – a modest increase from 63% in 2011. However, it is noteworthy that the range for this class begins at a comparatively low threshold of €15,501. Meanwhile, 27.8% of the population continues to reside in the lower income bracket (a figure largely unchanged from 27.7% in 2011), with nearly 14.6% of these individuals identified as at risk of poverty. The upper income class accounted for 7.6% of the population, a slight decline from 9.1% in 2011.

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Income Brackets And Their Thresholds

According to the report, the median equivalent disposable national income reached €20,666 in 2024. The upper limit of the lower income class was established at €15,500, and the threshold for poverty risk was set at €12,400. The middle income category spans from €15,501 to €41,332, while any household earning over €41,333 is classified in the upper income class. The median equivalents for each group were reported at €12,271 for the lower, €23,517 for the middle, and €51,316 for the upper income classes.

Methodological Insights And Comparative Findings

Employing the methodology recommended by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the report defines the middle income class as households earning between 75% and 200% of the national median income. In contrast, incomes exceeding 200% of the median classify households as upper income, while those earning below 75% fall into the lower income category.

Detailed Findings Across Income Segments

Upper Income Class: Comprising 73,055 individuals (7.6% of the population), this group had a median equivalent disposable income of €51,136. Notably, the share of individuals in this category has contracted since 2011.
Upper Middle Income Segment: This subgroup includes 112,694 people (11.7% of the population) with a median income of €34,961. Combined with the upper income class, they represent 185,749 individuals.
Middle Income Group: Encompassing 30.3% of the population (approximately 294,624 individuals), this segment reports a median disposable income of €24,975.
Lower Middle And Lower Income Classes: The lower middle income category includes 22.2% of the population (211,768 individuals) with a median income of €17,800, while the lower income class accounts for 27.8% (267,557 individuals) with a median income of €12,271.

Payment Behaviors And Economic Implications

The report also examines how income levels influence repayment behavior for primary residence loans or rental payments. Historically, households in the lower income class have experienced the greatest delays. In 2024, 27.0% of those in the lower income bracket were late on payments—a significant improvement from 34.6% in 2011. For the middle income class, late payments were observed in 9.9% of cases, down from 21.4% in 2011. Among the upper income class, only 3% experienced delays, compared to 9.9% previously.

This detailed analysis underscores shifts in income distribution and repayment behavior across Cyprus, reflecting broader economic trends that are critical for policymakers and investors to consider as they navigate the evolving financial landscape.

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