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Greek Systemic Banks Forecast Robust Profitability and Strategic Dividend Payouts

by THEFUTURE.TEAM
August 5, 2025

Strong Q2 Performance Sets the Stage

Greece’s four systemic banks continue to deliver impressive profitability, with forecasts projecting total earnings to reach approximately €4.7 billion by the end of 2025. This performance is bolstered by sustained credit activity and a full-year net credit expansion estimate of €13 billion or more.

Sustained Credit Growth and Lending Dynamics

Analysts note that the banks’ robust credit operations are a key driver of this fiscal strength. Business lending is expanding rapidly, fueled by broader economic growth and significant disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. However, mortgage lending remains subdued, constrained by high property costs and limited household incomes. Eurobank’s foreign loan portfolio, in particular, has been a major contributor to overall performance, while domestic mortgage credit continues to stagnate.

Strategic Dividend Distribution

In line with international practices, all four banks—Piraeus, Eurobank, National Bank of Greece (NBG), and Alpha Bank—have approved interim cash dividend payouts. These distributions, ranging from 10% to 20% of net profits with yields between 1.2% and 2.4%, reflect a return to stability and instill confidence in the sector. NBG leads the field with a €260 million payout, both in absolute terms and as a 20% share of profits, while Piraeus Bank opts for a more conservative 10% allocation. Although share buyback programs are on hold due to elevated stock valuations, several institutions are poised to resume them in the future. Notably, NBG has also signaled the potential for a final dividend payout exceeding 60% of annual earnings.

Resilient Interest Income and Capitalisation

Resilience in net interest income, driven by strong lending volumes and a predominance of low-yield savings and current deposits, underscores the banks’ performance. With 80% of Greek retail savings deposits held in NBG’s portfolio, the banks are well-positioned to weather market fluctuations. Despite anticipating a rate cut in September, industry experts do not expect interest rates to drop below 1.5%, which supports steady income flows and reinforces profitability forecasts.

Future Strategies and Mergers & Acquisitions

Each bank is pursuing distinct strategic pathways in the mergers and acquisitions landscape. NBG is actively exploring strategic acquisition opportunities, Alpha Bank is focused on pursuing investments with a minimum 15% return on investment that boost both capital and earnings per share without impacting dividend policy, and Eurobank is scouting for consolidation prospects outside Greece, particularly in Bulgaria’s evolving banking market. Piraeus Bank is dedicated to finalizing its national insurance process and closing a Danish settlement anticipated to strengthen its capital base.

Conclusion

The sustained interest income and strategic initiatives underpinning these banks provide a robust foundation for their optimistic 2025 outlook. With diversified approaches to lending, dividend distribution, and capital management, these institutions are set to navigate the evolving market landscape and reinforce their positions as pillars of the Greek banking sector.

EU E-Commerce VAT Systems Generate €257.9 Million Revenue for Cyprus in 2024

by THEFUTURE.TEAM
August 11, 2025

Robust Revenue Growth Through Streamlined VAT Collection

Cyprus has demonstrated a significant fiscal boost in 2024 with €257.9 million generated from the European Union’s e-commerce VAT systems, according to Tax Commissioner Sotiris Markides. This impressive performance underscores the effectiveness of the One Stop Shop (OSS) and Import One Stop Shop (IOSS) frameworks in simplifying cross-border tax compliance.

Simplified Procedures for EU and Non-EU Businesses

The OSS system allows Cyprus-registered businesses to streamline VAT declaration and payment on sales to consumers in other EU countries. Companies simply register on the local OSS platform, apply the consumer’s VAT rate, aggregate their submissions quarterly or monthly, and remit a single consolidated payment. Subsequently, Cyprus allocates the appropriate share to each respective EU country. This efficient process extends to non-EU sellers as well, who can have their intra-EU distance sales managed under the Union Scheme.

Breakdown of VAT Revenue Streams

Last year’s declarations under the various schemes illustrate the system’s broad reach: €217.9 million was collected via the Union Scheme, €36.9 million through the Non-Union Scheme, and €3.1 million via the Import Scheme. While the Union Scheme caters to both EU and non-EU sellers engaging in distance sales, the Non-Union Scheme specifically accommodates non-EU firms delivering services to EU consumers. Furthermore, the Import Scheme targets goods valued at less than €150 that are imported from outside the EU.

Implications and Broader Impact

Implemented in July 2021 as an evolution from the more limited MOSS system, these reforms have not only consolidated tax collection through an expansive OSS but also integrated the IOSS for low-value imports. By designating certain online marketplaces as “deemed suppliers,” the new framework ensures that VAT collection is both efficient and equitable. Across the EU, these mechanisms have generated over €33 billion in VAT revenues in 2024, reflecting a successful effort to simplify tax compliance, reduce administrative burdens, and promote fair taxation across the bloc.

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