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Greece’s Fiscal Surplus Narrows In 2025 As Government Spending Rises

Overview Of Fiscal Balance And Performance

The Greek General Government recorded a fiscal surplus of €939.2 million between January and December 2025, equivalent to 2.6% of GDP. The figure is lower than the €1,439.3 million surplus, or 4.1% of GDP, reported during the same period in 2024. Revenue growth continued during the year, while higher public spending reduced the overall surplus compared with the previous year.

Revenue Growth And Sectoral Shifts

Total government revenue increased by €864.8 million in 2025, rising 5.9% to €15,615.2 million from €14,750.3 million in 2024.

Income and wealth taxes rose by €341.3 million, or 9%, reaching €4,146 million compared with €3,804.7 million a year earlier. Social contributions increased by €358.7 million, or 7.9%, totaling €4,878.7 million.

Interest and dividend income rose by €37.4 million, or 30.4%, reaching €160.3 million. Taxes on production and imports increased slightly by €14 million, or 0.3%. Net VAT revenue declined by €52.8 million, or 1.7%.

Sales of goods and services generated €159.6 million more in revenue, representing a 17.9% increase to €1,049.4 million. Current transfers rose by €27.9 million, or 7.1%, to €421.1 million. Capital transfers declined by €74.1 million, or 22%, to €262.9 million.

Rising Government Expenditures

Government spending increased by €1,364.9 million in 2025, rising 10.3% to €14,675.9 million compared with €13,311 million in 2024. Personnel costs, including estimated social security contributions and public sector pensions, rose by €253.3 million, or 6.5%, reaching €4,131.2 million.

Social benefits increased by €382.3 million, or 7.2%, totaling €5,686 million. Intermediate consumption rose by €136 million, or 9.3%, to €1,600.8 million. Current transfers also increased, rising by €77.8 million, or 9.2%, to €920.2 million.

Capital Expenditure And Debt Costs

Capital expenditure recorded the largest increase during the year. The capital account rose by €562.1 million, or 46.6%, reaching €1,767.2 million.

Growth was driven by fixed capital investment, which increased by €242.6 million, or 25.1%, to €1,207.3 million. Other capital transfers also expanded, rising by €319.5 million from €240.4 million.

Interest payments on government debt declined by €27 million, or 6.1%, reaching €418.7 million. Subsidies also fell, decreasing by €19.6 million, or 11.4%, to €151.8 million.

Data Reporting Notes

Greece’s statistical authority reported that estimates were used for certain entities within the General Government sector, particularly within local government, due to incomplete data submissions from the relevant authorities.

Solar Photovoltaics Drive Global Energy Demand: A Renewable Milestone

Solar Photovoltaics Lead The Charge

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems accounted for 27% of global energy demand growth in 2025, marking the first time a single renewable technology has led the increase. This compares with overall demand growth of 1.3% in 2025, 2% in 2024, and an average of 1.4% over the previous decade, highlighting the accelerating role of solar in the global energy mix.

Surpassing Traditional Energy Sources

Solar PV outpaced natural gas, which contributed 17% of the increase in energy demand. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), new solar installations added capacity equivalent to 600 terawatt-hours (TWh), bringing total solar generation to 2,700 TWh, or roughly 8% of global electricity production. This shift reflects growing reliance on renewable energy for power generation across major markets.

Traditional Fuels Under Pressure

Demand for fossil fuels showed slower growth. Natural gas consumption rose by 1% in the first half of the year, compared to 2.8% in 2024. Oil demand increased by 0.7%, with additional daily consumption reaching 650,000 barrels, down from 750,000 in 2024 and well below pre-pandemic increases of around 1.4 million barrels per day. Part of this slowdown is linked to the substitution of cleaner energy sources. Electric vehicle sales rose by 20% in 2025, accounting for roughly one-quarter of the global market.

Mixed Trends In Coal Consumption And Emissions

Coal demand increased by 0.4%, reflecting diverging regional trends. China and India reduced coal use as renewable capacity expanded, while the United States increased coal consumption in response to higher electricity demand. Coal contributed around 9% to demand growth, similar to wind energy.

Global CO2 emissions from the power sector rose by approximately 0.4%. Emissions declined in China due to increased use of renewables and nuclear energy, while U.S. emissions increased alongside higher coal usage.

Record-Breaking European Renewable Production

Europe recorded strong growth in renewable generation in the first quarter of 2026. Solar output increased by 15%, marking the highest quarterly rise on record, while wind generation grew by 22% year over year. Total renewable production reached 384.9 TWh, supported by solar, wind, and hydroelectric output. These gains helped offset volatility in gas markets linked to geopolitical tensions, including developments involving Iran.

Looking Ahead

Renewables are taking a larger share of global energy demand growth, with solar PV at the center of this shift. Combined contributions from renewables, biofuels, and nuclear energy now account for roughly 60% of new demand, indicating continued structural change in the global energy system.

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