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Greece’s Fiscal Surplus Narrows In 2025 As Government Spending Rises

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Overview Of Fiscal Balance And Performance

The Greek General Government recorded a fiscal surplus of €939.2 million between January and December 2025, equivalent to 2.6% of GDP. The figure is lower than the €1,439.3 million surplus, or 4.1% of GDP, reported during the same period in 2024. Revenue growth continued during the year, while higher public spending reduced the overall surplus compared with the previous year.

Revenue Growth And Sectoral Shifts

Total government revenue increased by €864.8 million in 2025, rising 5.9% to €15,615.2 million from €14,750.3 million in 2024.

Income and wealth taxes rose by €341.3 million, or 9%, reaching €4,146 million compared with €3,804.7 million a year earlier. Social contributions increased by €358.7 million, or 7.9%, totaling €4,878.7 million.

Interest and dividend income rose by €37.4 million, or 30.4%, reaching €160.3 million. Taxes on production and imports increased slightly by €14 million, or 0.3%. Net VAT revenue declined by €52.8 million, or 1.7%.

Sales of goods and services generated €159.6 million more in revenue, representing a 17.9% increase to €1,049.4 million. Current transfers rose by €27.9 million, or 7.1%, to €421.1 million. Capital transfers declined by €74.1 million, or 22%, to €262.9 million.

Rising Government Expenditures

Government spending increased by €1,364.9 million in 2025, rising 10.3% to €14,675.9 million compared with €13,311 million in 2024. Personnel costs, including estimated social security contributions and public sector pensions, rose by €253.3 million, or 6.5%, reaching €4,131.2 million.

Social benefits increased by €382.3 million, or 7.2%, totaling €5,686 million. Intermediate consumption rose by €136 million, or 9.3%, to €1,600.8 million. Current transfers also increased, rising by €77.8 million, or 9.2%, to €920.2 million.

Capital Expenditure And Debt Costs

Capital expenditure recorded the largest increase during the year. The capital account rose by €562.1 million, or 46.6%, reaching €1,767.2 million.

Growth was driven by fixed capital investment, which increased by €242.6 million, or 25.1%, to €1,207.3 million. Other capital transfers also expanded, rising by €319.5 million from €240.4 million.

Interest payments on government debt declined by €27 million, or 6.1%, reaching €418.7 million. Subsidies also fell, decreasing by €19.6 million, or 11.4%, to €151.8 million.

Data Reporting Notes

Greece’s statistical authority reported that estimates were used for certain entities within the General Government sector, particularly within local government, due to incomplete data submissions from the relevant authorities.

Dell’s Earnings Beat Puts The AI Trade To The Test

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Dell Technologies has become a key stock to watch after its latest earnings report strengthened the case for continued AI infrastructure spending but failed to trigger a sustained rally.

Shares jumped more than 13% after Tuesday’s opening bell before giving back much of the gain. By late morning Wednesday, the stock was up about 5%, raising questions about whether strong AI-related earnings are still enough to drive higher valuations.

Strong Results Meet A More Skeptical Market

The reaction echoes last week’s trading in Nvidia. Its shares climbed nearly 9% after strong quarterly results and a stronger long-term outlook, only to surrender much of the advance in subsequent sessions.

That pattern has encouraged some investors to reduce exposure to AI stocks. Strong results remain evident, but markets appear less willing to reward them with sustained valuation expansion.

Dell Raises 2027 Earnings Outlook

Three months ago, Dell shares surged almost 33% after the company raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings-per-share guidance by 39%. Analysts followed by lifting their own estimates, while the stock retained most of its gains.

This time, Dell raised fiscal 2027 earnings guidance to $25.50 from $17.90, an increase of about 42.5%. Street consensus rose nearly 29% overnight, yet the stock was up only about 5% in Wednesday trading.

The weaker share-price reaction suggests investors are applying a more cautious valuation to Dell than they did in May.

AI Exposure Faces Greater Caution

We have been raising cash for the Club as the AI trade has become more volatile and less predictable. Tuesday’s decision to exit Corning increased our cash position to about 15%.

If capital is redeployed, it would likely favor more defensive areas outside AI. That reflects greater caution over valuations and positioning rather than a rejection of the AI investment theme.

Dell’s Trading Could Set The Tone

A further rise in Dell shares would suggest investors remain willing to increase AI exposure, while a flat performance would point to greater valuation discipline. A decline could indicate that much of the earnings upside is already priced in.

Dell’s report, along with Broadcom’s results due Wednesday evening, could still improve sentiment across the group. If investors continue to discount strong AI earnings, however, the case for a more defensive approach will strengthen.

For now, Dell offers a real-time test of whether strong AI-related earnings can continue to drive valuations higher as investor caution increases.

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