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Greece Posts Strong Primary Surplus As Revenues Outpace Budget Targets

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Greece recorded a primary surplus of €5.77 billion in the first seven months of 2026, exceeding the €4.42 billion target set in the state budget, according to budget execution data released this week.

The broader state budget balance showed a €344 million deficit for the period, significantly below the €1.32 billion shortfall projected in the budget.

Revenue Exceeds Forecast

Net state budget revenue reached €45.26 billion, €2.03 billion above target. Even after excluding €884 million received earlier than scheduled from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, revenue remained €2.40 billion, or 5.7%, above the revised target.

Tax revenue excluding exceptional items stood at €42.35 billion, €990 million above forecast. VAT generated €17.74 billion, while income tax brought in €15.07 billion. Excise duties were weaker, falling €224 million short of target at €3.96 billion.

Transfers generated €4.22 billion, €91 million above target, while other current revenues reached €1.87 billion, €455 million above expectations.

Exceptional Payments Affect Comparisons

Several timing differences and one-off receipts affected the comparison with the budget. These included €135 million from a casino concession at Elliniko and €306 million in VAT related to the 35-year Egnatia motorway concession.

The government also recorded €510 million in public investment programme payments that differed from the original timing, along with €406 million in delayed transfers to general government entities. After adjusting for these items and the casino payment, the primary surplus was €302 million above target.

Officials noted that the primary balance calculated on a fiscal basis differs from the cash-based figure and that the data cover central government rather than the entire general government sector.

Spending And Investment Increase

State spending reached €45.60 billion in the first seven months, €1.05 billion above the budget target and €4.92 billion higher than a year earlier.

Major expenditures included €1.24 billion for the National Organisation for the Provision of Health Services, €1.82 billion for welfare benefits and €915 million for medicines and healthcare supplies. Hospitals and primary healthcare facilities received another €801 million, while public transport organisations received €244 million.

Investment spending rose particularly strongly to €7.60 billion, €855 million above target and €1.47 billion higher than in the same period of 2025. The increase was largely linked to faster implementation of projects financed through the Recovery and Resilience Facility.

July Revenue Beats Monthly Target

July net revenue reached €9.25 billion, €946 million above the monthly target. Public investment programme receipts exceeded the forecast by €363 million, while the state also received €234 million from the Modernisation Fund that had not been included in the 2026 budget projection.

Tax revenue reached €8.97 billion, €406 million or 4.7% above target. VAT receipts were €167 million higher than forecast, while income tax revenue exceeded expectations by €147 million. Public investment programme revenue totalled €418 million in July, compared with a budget target of €55 million.

The figures show stronger-than-budgeted revenue collection alongside higher investment spending during the first seven months of 2026.

Dell’s Earnings Beat Puts The AI Trade To The Test

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Dell Technologies has become a key stock to watch after its latest earnings report strengthened the case for continued AI infrastructure spending but failed to trigger a sustained rally.

Shares jumped more than 13% after Tuesday’s opening bell before giving back much of the gain. By late morning Wednesday, the stock was up about 5%, raising questions about whether strong AI-related earnings are still enough to drive higher valuations.

Strong Results Meet A More Skeptical Market

The reaction echoes last week’s trading in Nvidia. Its shares climbed nearly 9% after strong quarterly results and a stronger long-term outlook, only to surrender much of the advance in subsequent sessions.

That pattern has encouraged some investors to reduce exposure to AI stocks. Strong results remain evident, but markets appear less willing to reward them with sustained valuation expansion.

Dell Raises 2027 Earnings Outlook

Three months ago, Dell shares surged almost 33% after the company raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings-per-share guidance by 39%. Analysts followed by lifting their own estimates, while the stock retained most of its gains.

This time, Dell raised fiscal 2027 earnings guidance to $25.50 from $17.90, an increase of about 42.5%. Street consensus rose nearly 29% overnight, yet the stock was up only about 5% in Wednesday trading.

The weaker share-price reaction suggests investors are applying a more cautious valuation to Dell than they did in May.

AI Exposure Faces Greater Caution

We have been raising cash for the Club as the AI trade has become more volatile and less predictable. Tuesday’s decision to exit Corning increased our cash position to about 15%.

If capital is redeployed, it would likely favor more defensive areas outside AI. That reflects greater caution over valuations and positioning rather than a rejection of the AI investment theme.

Dell’s Trading Could Set The Tone

A further rise in Dell shares would suggest investors remain willing to increase AI exposure, while a flat performance would point to greater valuation discipline. A decline could indicate that much of the earnings upside is already priced in.

Dell’s report, along with Broadcom’s results due Wednesday evening, could still improve sentiment across the group. If investors continue to discount strong AI earnings, however, the case for a more defensive approach will strengthen.

For now, Dell offers a real-time test of whether strong AI-related earnings can continue to drive valuations higher as investor caution increases.

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