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Government Fiscal Performance Q3 2025: Surplus Decline Amid Revenue Gains and Elevated Spending

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 26, 2026

Fiscal Surplus Contraction in Q3 2025

Preliminary fiscal data for the period July–September 2025 indicate that the general government recorded a surplus of €653.6 million, a decline from the €871.0 million surplus achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2024. Detailed analysis from the Pleonasma series and related commentary on fiscal outcomes underscores the evolving economic landscape.

Revenue Enhancements

Total revenues for Q3 2025 increased by €104.2 million (+2.6%), reaching €4,099.0 million from €3,994.8 million in Q3 2024. Social contributions demonstrated robust growth, rising by €62.5 million (+5.7%) to €1,151.2 million from €1,088.7 million during the same period last year.

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Revenue gains were also observed in personal income and wealth taxation, which grew by €10.9 million (+0.8%) to €1,299.3 million compared to €1,288.4 million. Taxes on production and imports increased by €7.1 million (+0.6%), totaling €1,264.3 million; notably, net VAT revenue (after reimbursements) saw an encouraging rise of €40.2 million (+4.8%) to €886.4 million.

Other revenue segments, including receivables from property income, capital transfers, and goods and services provided, also registered modest improvements. Property income receivables climbed by €3.0 million (+13.5%), while capital transfers surged by €6.0 million to €10.8 million. Revenues from goods and services increased by €15.1 million (+6.1%) to €260.9 million. Conversely, current transfers experienced a slight contraction, decreasing by €0.4 million (-0.5%) to €87.2 million.

Escalating Expenditures

Total expenditures during the period advanced by €321.5 million (+10.3%), reaching €3,445.3 million versus €3,123.8 million in Q3 2024. Social benefits were the primary driver, with an increase of €97.8 million (+7.9%) to €1,334.6 million compared to €1,236.8 million previously.

Employee compensation—which encompasses statutory social contributions and public employee pensions—rose by €50.5 million (+5.6%), culminating at €955.6 million, up from €905.1 million. Intermediate consumption saw a moderate uptick of €4.5 million (+1.2%) to €382.0 million.

Notably, the capital account expenditures surged by €223.7 million (+84.2%) to €489.3 million, which includes €321.0 million in capital investments and €168.3 million in capital transfers, compared with €265.6 million the previous year. In contrast, payable property income contracted by €26.1 million (-25.7%) to €75.3 million, and other current expenditures fell by €16.1 million (-8.6%) to €171.2 million. Furthermore, subsidies experienced a marked reduction, dropping by €12.6 million (-25.3%) to €37.3 million from €49.9 million.

Implications for Policy and Economic Stability

The evolving fiscal indicators highlight the complex balance between revenue enhancements and growing expenditures amid changing economic conditions. The data, meticulously compiled and reported by the national statistical authority, point to significant challenges and opportunities for policymakers tasked with sustaining long-term fiscal stability.

Outlook

The detailed disaggregation of revenue and expenditure items is critical for informed decision-making in the public sector. As governments navigate the interplay of rising social contributions, evolving tax bases, and shifting capital investments, the Q3 2025 fiscal performance offers pivotal insights into the broader economic trajectory and the future direction of public finance management.

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Central Bank Of Cyprus Balance Sheet Reflects Strong Eurosystem Position

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 17, 2026

Overview Of Financial Stability

The Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) has released its latest balance sheet, reaffirming its steadfast role within the Eurosystem. The balance sheet, featuring total assets and liabilities of €29.545 billion, underscores the institution’s stable financial posture at the close of January 2026.

Asset Allocation And Strategic Holdings

Governor Christodoulos Patsalides issued the balance sheet, which details the CBC’s asset composition under the Eurosystem framework. Notably, the bank’s gold and gold receivables amounted to €1.635 billion, providing a significant hedge and stability to its balance sheet. Additional asset categories include claims on non-euro area residents denominated in foreign currency at €1.099 billion, while claims on euro area residents in both foreign and domestic currency add further depth to its portfolio.

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The most substantial asset category, intra-Eurosystem claims, reached €19.438 billion, an indication of the CBC’s deep integration with its European counterparts. Furthermore, euro-denominated securities held by euro area residents contributed €6.587 billion. Despite a marked emphasis on these areas, lending to euro area credit institutions in monetary policy operations recorded no activity during the period.

Liability Structure And Monetary Policy Implications

On the liabilities side, banknotes in circulation contributed €3.218 billion. Liabilities to euro area credit institutions associated with monetary policy operations were notably the largest single category, totaling €17.636 billion. Supplementary liabilities included those to other euro area residents, which aggregated to €4.989 billion, with government liabilities playing a predominant role at €4.754 billion.

Other liability items, such as claims related to special drawing rights allocated by the International Monetary Fund at €494.193 million, and provisions of €596.571 million, further articulate the CBC’s exposure. Revaluation accounts stood at €1.643 billion, and overall capital and reserves were confirmed at €333.822 million, completing the picture of a well-capitalized institution.

Conclusive Insights And Strategic Alignment

The detailed breakdown illustrates the CBC’s sizeable intra-Eurosystem exposures, reinforcing its central role within Europe’s monetary landscape. With an asset-liability balance maintained at €29.545 billion, the CBC’s financial position remains robust, indicating a commitment to structural stability and strategic risk management.

This fiscal disclosure not only provides transparency into the CBC’s operations but also serves as a benchmark for comparative analysis among other central banks within the Eurosystem, highlighting the intricate balance between asset liquidity, regulatory oversight, and monetary policy imperatives.