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Goldman Sachs Predicts Lower Oil Prices Amid Global Supply Surplus And Geopolitical Volatility

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 13, 2026

Market Surplus Drives New Dynamics

Goldman Sachs has signaled that oil prices are expected to decline later this year as a significant supply surplus takes shape. The investment bank maintained its 2026 average forecast at $56 per barrel for Brent and $52 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), predicting a price bottom at $54 on Brent and $50 on WTI during the last quarter as OECD inventories expand.

Geopolitical Tensions Propel Volatility

Despite the anticipated surplus, ongoing geopolitical risks associated with Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are likely to inject volatility into the markets. The interplay between supply abundance and enduring political uncertainties underscores the complex global energy landscape, forcing investors and policymakers alike to navigate these challenges carefully.

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Policy Focus and Implications for Investors

Brent crude futures were reported around $63 a barrel, with U.S. WTI crude at $59, as of recent trading sessions. This follows a year marked by nearly a 20% decline in both benchmarks, the worst performance since 2020. Analysts note that U.S. policymakers remain committed to ensuring robust energy supplies and keeping prices relatively modest, a stance that is expected to temper further price increases before the midterm elections.

Outlook Through 2027 and Beyond

Goldman Sachs anticipates a gradual recovery in oil prices in 2027, projecting average prices of $58 for Brent and $54 for WTI. This revision comes on the back of modest upward adjustments in U.S., Venezuelan, and Russian supply estimates. Looking further ahead, the bank forecasts a substantial recovery later in the decade as demand picks up through 2040, with projections of $75 and $71 for Brent and WTI respectively between 2030 and 2035.

Strategic Recommendations

Given these market conditions, Goldman Sachs recommends that investors consider shorting the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent time-spread to articulate a view of the surplus. Additionally, the bank suggests that oil producers hedge against the potential downside in 2026 prices.

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Greek Retail Powerhouse Expands Into Six Strategic International Markets

Greek retail titan Jumbo has announced an ambitious expansion strategy that positions the company to extend its international footprint beyond its established strongholds in Cyprus and Southeast Europe. In a strategic agreement with the Balfin Group, the retailer is set to penetrate six new markets, including Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.

Strategic Global Expansion

The agreement builds on the existing cooperation between Jumbo and Balfin Group, which previously supported the retailer’s expansion into markets including Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Moldova. According to the company, the next phase of expansion will include a greater degree of local operational management across the new markets.

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Enhanced Logistics And Supply Chain Capabilities

To support the expanded international network, Balfin Group is also developing a new central logistics hub in China. The facility is expected to strengthen sourcing, warehousing, transportation and distribution operations across the Caucasus region, Central Asia and Ukraine. Previously, Jumbo relied primarily on logistics infrastructure based in Greece to support franchise operations across Southeast Europe.

Sustainable Growth And Robust Financial Foundation

Alongside its franchise expansion strategy, Jumbo continues focusing on organic growth across existing markets. The retailer currently operates 89 physical stores, including 53 in Greece, six in Cyprus, 10 in Bulgaria and 20 in Romania, in addition to its e-commerce operations. A new store in Baia Mare is expected to open by the end of October.

Jumbo also operates 46 franchise stores across seven countries, including Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Israel. According to the company, its expansion strategy continues to be supported by strong liquidity levels and the absence of bank borrowing.