Labor Market Pressure Is Concentrated In A Few Industries

AI is beginning to weigh on employment across major developed economies, with the strongest effects appearing in highly exposed industries and among entry-level workers, according to Goldman Sachs.

Since late 2022, sectors more vulnerable to AI automation have generally seen slower growth in job openings, particularly in Germany, Australia and the U.S. Employment in information and communication services has also weakened across most developed economies, although it remains near or above its long-term trend outside the U.S.

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Call Centers Show The Clearest Impact

Call centers, software publishing, management consulting and advertising have seen employment fall well below historical trends. Call-center employment is now 39% below trend in the U.S., 33% lower in Canada and 27% lower in Germany.

Goldman’s analysis of more than 800 occupations found that entry-level workers face the strongest AI-related pressure. A 10% increase in occupational exposure to AI was associated with a 0.1 percentage-point drag on annual employment growth in France, Canada and the U.S., while the effect for entry-level workers was larger.

Still, Goldman said the impact remains concentrated in a relatively narrow group of industries and workers.

AI Adoption Continues To Grow

Goldman’s analysis of 11 surveys found AI adoption rates of around 15% to 20% across major developed economies. France, the U.S., the Netherlands and the U.K. were among the leaders, while Italy, Japan and New Zealand had lower adoption rates.

Major emerging markets recorded adoption rates of roughly 10% to 15%.