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Global Recorded Music Revenue Seen Reaching $48.3 Billion In 2026

Global recorded-music retail sales are projected to reach $48.3 billion in 2026, marking a 12th consecutive year of growth, according to forecasts from research firm Omdia.

Streaming Remains The Main Growth Driver

Omdia expects the market to surpass $50 billion in 2027 before reaching $56.8 billion by 2030.

The forecast covers consumer spending on physical and digital music formats and services, as well as trade revenue from advertising, performance rights and synchronisation.

Subscription services, including Spotify, Apple Music and YouTube Music, are expected to remain the industry’s main source of growth. Subscription retail sales are projected to increase 7.2% to $30.5 billion in 2026 from $28.4 billion a year earlier and exceed $37 billion by 2030.

Physical Sales Continue To Grow

Advertising revenue is forecast to outpace physical music sales over the next five years, with compound annual growth rates of 4.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

Despite slower growth, physical formats are expected to remain the second-largest source of recorded-music revenue. Sales are projected to reach $8.3 billion by 2030, while combined audio and video advertising revenue is forecast to rise to $6.2 billion.

China Climbs The Global Rankings

China is expected to become the world’s second-largest recorded-music market by 2029 after overtaking the UK in 2028 and Japan a year later.

By 2030, the country is projected to account for 8.7% of global recorded-music retail revenue, up from 5.8% in 2025. The United States is expected to remain the largest market, although its share of global sales is forecast to decline from 40.3% to 38.4% over the same period.

Outlook

Simon Dyson, senior principal analyst at Omdia, said the forecasts point to continued momentum for the industry, with global retail sales expected to reach new record highs over the next five years.

He added that China becoming the world’s second-largest music market would mark a significant milestone, reflecting its growing contribution to the global music industry.

Mirendil Signs $100 Million Google Cloud Deal To Advance Self-Improving AI

AI startup Mirendil has signed a multi-year agreement worth more than $100 million with Google Cloud to secure computing infrastructure for its self-improving AI research.

The partnership reflects growing competition among AI companies to lock in access to high-performance computing, while cloud providers race to attract promising startups developing next-generation AI models.

Backing The Next Stage Of AI Research

Mirendil plans to use Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), Nvidia GPUs and managed training infrastructure to develop AI systems capable of improving their own performance over time.

Known as recursive self-improvement, the concept focuses on building AI that can refine its knowledge and capabilities with minimal human intervention. The technology is attracting growing interest across the industry, with several startups and leading AI labs exploring similar approaches.

According to co-founder and Chief Executive Behnam Neyshabur, the long-term goal is to develop AI that can automate scientific research and accelerate discoveries in fields such as medicine, biology and materials science.

Compute Capacity Becomes A Strategic Asset

Training increasingly advanced AI models requires enormous computing resources, making long-term infrastructure agreements a critical competitive advantage.

Mirendil said Google’s combination of TPUs and GPUs allows workloads to be matched with the most suitable hardware, improving efficiency while reducing costs for customers.

For Google Cloud, the agreement strengthens its position in the race to provide infrastructure for frontier AI developers, while giving the company exposure to one of the industry’s emerging approaches to next-generation artificial intelligence.

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