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Global Oil Supply Forecast Revised: IEA Anticipates Surge Amid OPEC+ Expansion

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its projections for global oil supply growth, attributing the upward revision to aggressive output enhancements by OPEC+ members and significant production gains from non-OPEC sources. The agency now forecasts an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 2.1 million bpd, and an additional 1.9 million bpd boost the following year. This recalibration comes on the heels of accelerated efforts by not only OPEC but also allied producers, including Russia, as they expedite the relaxation of recent output cut measures.

Reluctant Demand and a Surplus On The Horizon

Despite robust supply increases, demand growth remains subdued. The IEA now expects global oil demand to rise by 680,000 bpd this year and 700,000 bpd next year—figures that not only trail earlier forecasts but also starkly contrast with higher estimates from other industry players. Concerns over anemic consumer confidence and lingering economic uncertainty, driven by tariff challenges, have left market analysts wary. As a result, the agency cautions that the market could face an oversupply scenario, with forecasts suggesting an imbalance of nearly 3 million bpd next year.

Market Responses And Future Outlook

The immediate market response reflected this bearish sentiment, as oil prices fell below $66 per barrel following the report’s release. Non-OPEC producing nations, especially those in North America and parts of South America, are set to drive supply growth even in the face of additional sanctions on major producers like Russia and Iran. Notably, evolving energy policies in China aimed at bolstering energy security through strategic stockpiling may serve as a buffer to offset some of the surpluses, although the broader market equilibrium remains in jeopardy.

Record Refining Activity And The Road Ahead

In parallel with these supply and demand shifts, the IEA anticipates that global crude oil refining rates will approach record levels, reaching 85.6 million bpd in August after a July peak at 84.9 million bpd. Refinery throughput is projected to climb steadily, with substantial increases expected in market economies under the OECD and within China through to 2026. The dynamics of this expanded refining capacity, juxtaposed with the supply-demand imbalance, underscore the critical need for market adjustments as stakeholders navigate the multifaceted challenges ahead.

Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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