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Global Oil Supply Forecast Revised: IEA Anticipates Surge Amid OPEC+ Expansion

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its projections for global oil supply growth, attributing the upward revision to aggressive output enhancements by OPEC+ members and significant production gains from non-OPEC sources. The agency now forecasts an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 2.1 million bpd, and an additional 1.9 million bpd boost the following year. This recalibration comes on the heels of accelerated efforts by not only OPEC but also allied producers, including Russia, as they expedite the relaxation of recent output cut measures.

Reluctant Demand and a Surplus On The Horizon

Despite robust supply increases, demand growth remains subdued. The IEA now expects global oil demand to rise by 680,000 bpd this year and 700,000 bpd next year—figures that not only trail earlier forecasts but also starkly contrast with higher estimates from other industry players. Concerns over anemic consumer confidence and lingering economic uncertainty, driven by tariff challenges, have left market analysts wary. As a result, the agency cautions that the market could face an oversupply scenario, with forecasts suggesting an imbalance of nearly 3 million bpd next year.

Market Responses And Future Outlook

The immediate market response reflected this bearish sentiment, as oil prices fell below $66 per barrel following the report’s release. Non-OPEC producing nations, especially those in North America and parts of South America, are set to drive supply growth even in the face of additional sanctions on major producers like Russia and Iran. Notably, evolving energy policies in China aimed at bolstering energy security through strategic stockpiling may serve as a buffer to offset some of the surpluses, although the broader market equilibrium remains in jeopardy.

Record Refining Activity And The Road Ahead

In parallel with these supply and demand shifts, the IEA anticipates that global crude oil refining rates will approach record levels, reaching 85.6 million bpd in August after a July peak at 84.9 million bpd. Refinery throughput is projected to climb steadily, with substantial increases expected in market economies under the OECD and within China through to 2026. The dynamics of this expanded refining capacity, juxtaposed with the supply-demand imbalance, underscore the critical need for market adjustments as stakeholders navigate the multifaceted challenges ahead.

Cyprus Foreclosure Reform Debate Intensifies Amid Rising Non-Performing Loans

Political Stakes And Foreclosure Regulation

Cypriot political parties are engaging in a high-stakes debate in parliament as they deliberate changes to the legal framework governing foreclosures ahead of the May parliamentary elections. The proposed shifts are aimed at curbing the rapid escalation in the value of non-performing loans, a trend that has sparked significant public and legislative concern. Confidential data from the Central Bank of Cyprus indicates that the nation has not yet moved away from its longstanding issues related to so-called “red loans.”

Non-Performing Loans: A Mounting Financial Challenge

Recent figures show that the value of distressed loans has continued to rise, surpassing €20 billion following transfers involving banks and credit recovery companies. This level exceeds the approximately €15 billion recorded during the economic crisis period. Central Bank data indicates that after loan sales, credit recovery firms now manage portfolios totaling €19.7 billion, of which €18.5 billion are classified as non-performing. About 87% of these loans are considered terminated, while the firms acquired 141,478 loans for €3.2 billion, roughly 80% below their original value.

Credit Recovery Companies: Overshooting Investment Returns

By June, credit recovery companies had recovered €5.7 billion through a combination of cash repayments, judicial asset auctions and property-for-debt exchanges. Cash repayments accounted for €3.6 billion, judicial recoveries contributed €619 million, and property swaps added €1.5 billion. These recoveries exceeded the original purchase cost of many loan portfolios while overall balances continued to increase due to accrued interest, a development that remains a concern for policymakers.

Bank Portfolios And The Impact On Financial Stability

Data from the State Guarantee Fund for Deposits and Loans shows that 77,561 loans valued at €7.5 billion were transferred, leaving a remaining balance of €5.7 billion by June 2025, of which €5 billion are non-performing. Within the banking sector, non-performing loans totaled €1.45 billion across 24,736 accounts as of last June. Since December 2024, these figures have improved by approximately €86 million due to repayments and asset recoveries. The reduction in problematic loans has lowered bank exposure compared with levels recorded during the 2013 crisis.

Legislative Proposals And Government Considerations

Political leaders argue that adjustments to foreclosure procedures can be introduced without undermining banking stability. Parliament’s Economic Committee is scheduled to begin discussions on March 9, with an estimated 20 to 30 legislative proposals currently pending from multiple parties. While the Ministry of Finance has not announced immediate legislative action, officials are evaluating the potential reintroduction of elements of the Rent-Versus-Rate plan for vulnerable borrowers, subject to fiscal impact assessments.

Advocacy From AKEL And Environmental Groups

Proposals supported by the AKEL party and several civil organizations focus on strengthening legal protections for borrowers. Among the suggested measures is restoring the right to seek judicial relief to delay foreclosures in cases involving disputed charges or alleged abusive contract clauses. AKEL representative Aristos Damianou criticized the pace of foreclosure proceedings and warned of risks to primary residences and small businesses.

Proposals Targeting Guarantors And Foreclosure Processes

The Democratic Rally party has introduced a proposal aimed at limiting guarantor liability during foreclosure procedures. Under the draft measure, if a property is auctioned or repossessed, the guarantor’s responsibility would be capped at the original loan amount adjusted by recovered sums. The proposal also requires that enforcement actions against guarantors be suspended until a court ruling is issued if the borrower formally disputes the debt.

Revisions Proposed By The Democratic Party of Cyprus

The Democratic Party is also preparing new legislative measures to be introduced on Thursday. Party leader Mario Karogian outlined plans to suspend the foreclosures of primary residences valued up to €350,000 until the end of the year, allowing time to address legislative gaps. Additional proposals include broadening the powers of the Financial Ombudsperson to make binding decisions on disputes up to €50,000, enforcing the Central Bank’s code of conduct, and ensuring strict adherence to refinancing guidelines for first residences.

Outlook And Strategic Implications

The range of proposals reflects an ongoing effort to balance financial system stability with stronger consumer protections. Decisions made in the coming months are expected to shape the regulatory environment for foreclosures and influence broader confidence in Cyprus’ financial sector and economic outlook.

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