Global Luxury Market To Shrink 2% In 2024 Amid Economic Strain, Price Hikes

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

November 14, 2024

The global luxury goods market is facing a rare contraction, with sales of personal luxury items forecasted to drop by 2% in 2024, marking one of the sector’s weakest years on record. Consultancy Bain & Company’s latest report attributes the decline to economic pressures and steep price hikes, which have contributed to a shrinking customer base and softened demand.

According to Bain, the luxury market lost approximately 50 million consumers over the past two years, a sharp drop from its previous 400 million customer base. This decline has largely been driven by rising prices, especially as luxury brands repositioned their products within higher price brackets. Bain estimates a 20-22% slump in luxury sales in China, once a powerhouse market for high-end goods, now experiencing sluggish demand amid economic uncertainty.“This is the first time we’re seeing a drop in the personal luxury goods sector since the 2008-09 crisis, barring the pandemic,” said Bain partner Federica Levato. The report may raise concerns among investors that the sector’s downturn could endure longer than expected, impacting key players like LVMH and Kering.

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The forecast reveals a shift in luxury consumer behaviour, particularly among younger shoppers, who have scaled back on purchases amid global economic headwinds, from geopolitical tensions to China’s economic challenges. Levato noted that while luxury spending on experiences like travel and dining remains strong, demand for physical luxury goods is expected to remain flat through the holiday season at constant exchange rates.

Strategies to Drive Future Growth

The report highlights that growth prospects for 2025 will depend significantly on brands’ strategic choices, particularly regarding pricing. Bain anticipates that global sales could rise modestly, between 0% and 4%, driven by European and American markets. China, however, is only expected to regain momentum in the latter half of 2025.

In another telling trend, the outlet channel—offering discounted luxury items—has outperformed the wider luxury market, reflecting a shift towards value-seeking among luxury buyers. Levato suggests that easing interest rates and potential tax cuts in the U.S. under Donald Trump’s leadership could lift consumer confidence and spending stateside.

The Shift to Experiential Luxury

While personal luxury goods are seeing a slowdown, Bain reports that luxury spending on experiences, such as upscale hospitality and dining, is on the rise, highlighting a potential shift in consumer preferences toward experience-driven purchases.

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Middle East Tensions Cast A Long Shadow Over Cyprus Economic Outlook

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

May 12, 2026

Improved Current Account Performance Amid Uncertainty

Cyprus recorded an improvement in its current account balance during 2025, with the deficit narrowing to 6.4% of GDP from 9.7% in 2023, according to analysis by Michail Vassileiadis. The improvement was primarily supported by continued expansion in the country’s services surplus, which reached a historic high of 25.2% of GDP compared with 23.5% a year earlier.

Sectoral Strength And Fiscal Dynamics

A moderate reduction in the goods deficit also contributed to the stronger current account position, although the deficit remained elevated at 19.5% of GDP. At the same time, the primary income deficit widened from 10.8% to 11.2% of GDP, reflecting higher outward flows linked to direct investment profits. The secondary income balance improved slightly, moving to a deficit of 0.9% of GDP.

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Robust Contributions From Key Economic Sectors

Strong contributions continued coming from intellectual property, tourism and financial services, which generated surpluses equal to 5.3%, 5.7% and 6.5% of GDP, respectively. Although transport and other business services weakened compared with the previous year, ICT services remained stable at 7.5% of GDP, continuing to support economic growth between 2021 and 2025.

Export-Import Dynamics And Structural Shifts

In value terms, the goods deficit widened by 2.5%, driven by a 1.4% increase in imports alongside a 0.2% decline in exports. Petroleum products accounted for 53.9% of the increase in imports, while pharmaceuticals represented another 16.5%. At the same time, exports of refined petroleum products surged by 298.8%, helping offset the impact of a sharp decline in ship exports.

Risks From Geopolitical Instability And Future Outlook

The analysis noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue posing risks for sectors including tourism and transport. A slowdown in European economic activity or prolonged regional instability could affect tourism revenues and disrupt shipping activity. The report also noted that Cyprus benefited from safe-haven inflows during earlier periods of regional instability, including the Gaza conflict between 2023 and 2025, although prolonged uncertainty could weigh on investment activity and increase market caution.

Conclusion

Cyprus’ recent fiscal improvements, supported by structural reforms and successive sovereign credit rating upgrades, have bolstered investor confidence, enabling a return to A-tier status. Nonetheless, the country faces a delicate balancing act as it navigates rising energy prices and the potential market turbulence induced by external geopolitical pressures. Strategic policy measures and adaptive economic planning will be critical in maintaining this positive momentum against a backdrop of persistent uncertainty.

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