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Global Electricity Demand To Outpace Japan’s Total Consumption By 2027

Global electricity demand is projected to increase by 4% annually until 2027, a rate that surpasses Japan’s entire current electricity consumption. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rapid rise in demand is expected to be mitigated somewhat by a shift toward low-emission energy sources like renewables and nuclear power.

Emerging Economies Lead Demand Growth

The vast majority of this demand growth will come from emerging and developing economies, with China playing a dominant role, contributing over half of the global increase. China’s electricity consumption is forecast to grow at a 6% annual rate through 2027, largely driven by its energy-intensive industrial sector and booming production of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles. India is also expected to play a key role, contributing 10% of global demand growth due to strong economic activity and surging air conditioning use.

Developed Economies Set For A Turnaround

In developed economies, such as the US, electricity demand, which had previously been stagnant, is expected to grow due to the increased electrification of sectors like transportation, heating, and data centers. However, the European Union’s outlook has been revised downward, with expected growth in 2025 now pegged at 1.6%. This reflects a weaker macroeconomic environment, and the EU may not recover to 2021 demand levels until at least 2027, despite a growth rebound in 2024.

Renewables To Meet Growing Demand

Low-emission energy sources, including renewables and nuclear power, are expected to increasingly meet global electricity demand. Solar power is forecast to become the second-largest low-emission source by 2027, after hydropower. Notably, renewables are set to overtake coal as the leading power generation source by 2025, with coal’s share in the energy mix dipping below 33% for the first time in a century, according to the IEA.

The AI Agent Revolution: Can the Industry Handle the Compute Surge?

As AI agents evolve from simple chatbots into complex, autonomous assistants, the tech industry faces a new challenge: Is there enough computing power to support them? With AI agents poised to become integral in various industries, computational demands are rising rapidly.

A recent Barclays report forecasts that the AI industry can support between 1.5 billion and 22 billion AI agents, potentially revolutionizing white-collar work. However, the increase in AI’s capabilities comes at a cost. AI agents, unlike chatbots, generate significantly more tokens—up to 25 times more per query—requiring far greater computing power.

Tokens, the fundamental units of generative AI, represent fragmented parts of language to simplify processing. This increase in token generation is linked to reasoning models, like OpenAI’s o1 and DeepSeek’s R1, which break tasks into smaller, manageable chunks. As AI agents process more complex tasks, the tokens multiply, driving up the demand for AI chips and computational capacity.

Barclays analysts caution that while the current infrastructure can handle a significant volume of agents, the rise of these “super agents” might outpace available resources, requiring additional chips and servers to meet demand. OpenAI’s ChatGPT Pro, for example, generates around 9.4 million tokens annually per subscriber, highlighting just how computationally expensive these reasoning models can be.

In essence, the tech industry is at a critical juncture. While AI agents show immense potential, their expansion could strain the limits of current computing infrastructure. The question is, can the industry keep up with the demand?

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