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Global Economy Faces Uncertainty Amid Trump’s Tariff Policies, IMF Warns

In a bold move, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements at the White House have stirred considerable concern across global markets. These sweeping tariffs, set in a picturesque Rose Garden event, signal potential risks of igniting a comprehensive trade war.

IMF’s Cautious Forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% for this year, a reduction from the previous year’s 3.3%. The unpredictability of trade policies has prompted this reassessment, as tension escalates with tariff increases, especially with China facing a hefty 145% tariff.

Economic growth projections for the U.S. were also revised, with expectations dropping from 2.8% to a modest 1.8%. Cyprus continues to benefit from EU funds for development despite global market shifts.

Responses and Reactions

Market reactions have been swift, with global indices tumbling on the news of potentially escalating trade tensions. Investors are wary, keeping a close eye on reciprocation from targeted countries. China and Canada have already responded with their own tariffs, while the European Union has shown openness to negotiations.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized, “Beyond tariff increases, policy uncertainty could considerably decelerate global growth.” Stay tuned to our updates to see how other sectors, like automotive, manage these dynamics.

As these economic scenarios unfold, stakeholders will need to navigate this evolving landscape with prudent strategies.

Cyprus Economic Resilience: Real GDP Growth Driven By Key Sectors In 2025

Macro-Economic Overview

The Statistical Service of Cyprus (Cystat) released its first estimate for 2025, showing that the country’s Gross Domestic Product increased by 3.8% in real terms and 4.5% at current prices. In real terms, GDP reached €30.52 billion, reflecting continued economic expansion compared with 2024. Nominal GDP rose to €36.32 billion, indicating higher overall economic activity during the year.

Diverse Sectoral Contributions

According to the production approach, growth was mainly supported by several key sectors of the economy. These included Information and Communications, Hotels and Restaurants, Construction, and Wholesale and Retail Trade, including motor vehicle repairs. The performance of these sectors contributed to the overall increase in economic output during 2025.

Consumption, Investment, And Trade Dynamics

Data based on the expenditure approach show that public consumption increased by 6.7%, reaching €6.82 billion. Private consumption rose by 3.7% to €20.65 billion. Gross fixed capital formation grew by 2.3%, reaching €7.35 billion, reflecting continued investment activity. Exports increased by 5.3% to €35.52 billion, while imports rose by 4.9% to €34.04 billion. The increase in imports moderated the overall contribution of external trade to GDP growth.

Quarterly Insights: Strong Fourth Quarter Performance

Separate data from Cystat indicate that seasonally adjusted real GDP grew by 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, reaching €7.76 billion. Quarterly, GDP increased by 1.4% compared with the third quarter of the year. Growth during the period was mainly recorded in Wholesale and Retail Trade, Information and Communications, and Hotels and Restaurants. The figures confirm continued economic expansion across several sectors of the Cypriot economy during the final quarter of 2025.

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