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Global Economy Faces Uncertainty Amid Trump’s Tariff Policies, IMF Warns

In a bold move, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements at the White House have stirred considerable concern across global markets. These sweeping tariffs, set in a picturesque Rose Garden event, signal potential risks of igniting a comprehensive trade war.

IMF’s Cautious Forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% for this year, a reduction from the previous year’s 3.3%. The unpredictability of trade policies has prompted this reassessment, as tension escalates with tariff increases, especially with China facing a hefty 145% tariff.

Economic growth projections for the U.S. were also revised, with expectations dropping from 2.8% to a modest 1.8%. Cyprus continues to benefit from EU funds for development despite global market shifts.

Responses and Reactions

Market reactions have been swift, with global indices tumbling on the news of potentially escalating trade tensions. Investors are wary, keeping a close eye on reciprocation from targeted countries. China and Canada have already responded with their own tariffs, while the European Union has shown openness to negotiations.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized, “Beyond tariff increases, policy uncertainty could considerably decelerate global growth.” Stay tuned to our updates to see how other sectors, like automotive, manage these dynamics.

As these economic scenarios unfold, stakeholders will need to navigate this evolving landscape with prudent strategies.

Bank Of England Holds Rates At 3.75% In Split Vote As Inflation Risks Rise

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday, but the decision was not unanimous. In a 6-3 vote, the Monetary Policy Committee kept rates unchanged, while three members backed a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. Renewed energy price pressures have added to concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

Inflation Pressures Remain

Policymakers said inflation “is likely to rise further over coming quarters,” citing higher and more volatile crude oil and refined energy prices since the conflict began.

So far, there has been “little evidence” of significant second-round effects, such as broader wage and price increases. Inflation risks, however, are now “tilted to the upside” and have increased since the July Monetary Policy Report.

Energy Prices Add To Inflation Risks

Brent crude has risen 36% since July, reaching $106 a barrel on Sept. 14, while UK wholesale gas prices increased 78% to 207 pence per therm.

Higher energy costs can feed into transport, production and household expenses, raising costs across supply chains. Refinery pressures have also pushed crack spreads, the difference between refined fuel and crude prices, well above pre-conflict levels.

Economy Shows Resilience

Despite the inflation risks, UK economic activity has held up slightly better than the Bank expected. A softer labor market and higher borrowing costs are expected to help reduce inflation over time.

Previous monetary tightening is still working through the economy, according to policymakers. So far, the latest energy shock has not produced clear evidence of a broader wage-price spiral.

Major Central Banks Take Different Paths

The decision comes during a busy period for global monetary policy. The Federal Reserve raised rates Wednesday to 3.75%-4% in its first increase since 2023, while the European Central Bank recently lifted its deposit rate to 2.5%.

The Bank of Japan is due to announce its decision Friday, with markets expecting a rate increase. Thursday’s split vote shows that pressure for tighter policy remains within the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

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