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Global Economy Faces Uncertainty Amid Trump’s Tariff Policies, IMF Warns

In a bold move, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements at the White House have stirred considerable concern across global markets. These sweeping tariffs, set in a picturesque Rose Garden event, signal potential risks of igniting a comprehensive trade war.

IMF’s Cautious Forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% for this year, a reduction from the previous year’s 3.3%. The unpredictability of trade policies has prompted this reassessment, as tension escalates with tariff increases, especially with China facing a hefty 145% tariff.

Economic growth projections for the U.S. were also revised, with expectations dropping from 2.8% to a modest 1.8%. Cyprus continues to benefit from EU funds for development despite global market shifts.

Responses and Reactions

Market reactions have been swift, with global indices tumbling on the news of potentially escalating trade tensions. Investors are wary, keeping a close eye on reciprocation from targeted countries. China and Canada have already responded with their own tariffs, while the European Union has shown openness to negotiations.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized, “Beyond tariff increases, policy uncertainty could considerably decelerate global growth.” Stay tuned to our updates to see how other sectors, like automotive, manage these dynamics.

As these economic scenarios unfold, stakeholders will need to navigate this evolving landscape with prudent strategies.

Middle East Tensions Cloud Cyprus Growth Outlook As Inflation Pressures Build

Cyprus’ economic growth is expected to slow in 2026 while inflation accelerates, according to updated forecasts from the Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus (CypERC), which cited weaker momentum and higher uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Growth Forecast Revised Lower

CypERC expects real GDP growth to slow to 2.7% in 2026 from an estimated 3.8% in 2025 before recovering to 3.1% in 2027.

The 2026 forecast was revised down by 0.2 percentage points from the centre’s April projections, while the 2027 estimate was unchanged.

According to CypERC, the downgrade reflects weaker economic activity during the first quarter of 2026 in Cyprus and the euro area, together with signals from leading indicators between April and June. The centre said the conflict in the Middle East has contributed to weaker regional and international economic conditions.

Inflation Expected To Accelerate

The research centre forecasts inflation will rise from 0.1% in 2025 to 3% in 2026 before easing to 2.1% in 2027.

The 2026 and 2027 inflation forecasts were both revised up by 0.3 percentage points from April. CypERC attributed the higher projections mainly to rising international oil prices in April and May, as well as stronger domestic inflation during the second quarter.

“The continuing tensions in the Middle East have intensified upward pressure on international commodity prices, particularly oil, and have increased uncertainty regarding the outlook for economic growth and inflation,” the centre said.

Domestic Fundamentals Remain Supportive

Despite the weaker outlook, CypERC said low unemployment, strong public finances and higher new housing lending should continue to support economic activity.

However, the centre warned that weaker external demand, stronger inflationary pressures and tighter financing conditions could weigh further on growth.

“As the effects of the conflict continue to spread through the Cypriot economy, leading to weaker external demand, stronger inflationary pressures and tighter financing conditions, the risks are tilted towards even lower economic growth than forecast, as well as even higher or more persistent inflation,” the report said.

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