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Global Economy Faces Uncertainty Amid Trump’s Tariff Policies, IMF Warns

In a bold move, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements at the White House have stirred considerable concern across global markets. These sweeping tariffs, set in a picturesque Rose Garden event, signal potential risks of igniting a comprehensive trade war.

IMF’s Cautious Forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% for this year, a reduction from the previous year’s 3.3%. The unpredictability of trade policies has prompted this reassessment, as tension escalates with tariff increases, especially with China facing a hefty 145% tariff.

Economic growth projections for the U.S. were also revised, with expectations dropping from 2.8% to a modest 1.8%. Cyprus continues to benefit from EU funds for development despite global market shifts.

Responses and Reactions

Market reactions have been swift, with global indices tumbling on the news of potentially escalating trade tensions. Investors are wary, keeping a close eye on reciprocation from targeted countries. China and Canada have already responded with their own tariffs, while the European Union has shown openness to negotiations.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized, “Beyond tariff increases, policy uncertainty could considerably decelerate global growth.” Stay tuned to our updates to see how other sectors, like automotive, manage these dynamics.

As these economic scenarios unfold, stakeholders will need to navigate this evolving landscape with prudent strategies.

Cyprus Government Surplus Rises To €1.61 Billion In First Nine Months Of 2026

Cyprus recorded a general government surplus of €1.61 billion in the first nine months of 2026, equal to 4.0% of gross domestic product, as revenue growth outpaced the rise in public spending. Higher receipts from income taxes, social contributions and value-added tax (VAT) drove the improvement, while lower capital expenditure helped restrain spending.

Preliminary figures released Tuesday by the Statistical Service of Cyprus show the surplus rose to €1.17 billion, or 3.0% of GDP, up from € 442.1 million in the same period of 2025.

Total government revenue increased 6.5% to €12.09 billion, while expenditure rose 2.9% to €10.48 billion.

Key Fiscal MeasureJanuary–September 2025January–September 2026
Total revenue€11,353.9 million€12,091.8 million
Total expenditure€10,186.2 million€10,482.1 million
Government surplus€1,167.6 million€1,609.7 million
Surplus as a share of GDP3.0%4.0%

Income Taxes And VAT Lead Revenue Growth

Taxes on income and wealth made the largest contribution to the increase in revenue. Receipts in this category climbed by €442.2 million, or 15.3%, to €3.34 billion, compared with €2.89 billion a year earlier.

Social contributions rose by €235 million, or 6.6%, to €3.78 billion. Taxes on production and imports increased by €251.5 million, or 7.2%, reaching €3.77 billion.

Net VAT receipts, after refunds, totalled €2.64 billion, up €293.1 million, or 12.5%, from €2.35 billion in the first nine months of 2025.

Some Revenue Streams Decline

Not all revenue categories moved higher. Capital transfers fell by €74.6 million to €96.7 million, while current transfers declined by €71.6 million, or 20.5%, to €278.2 million.

Revenue from services slipped 1.0% to €743.5 million. Interest and dividend receipts dropped by €37 million, or 28.6%, to €92.4 million.

Social Benefits And Personnel Costs Increase

On the expenditure side, social benefits rose by €199.6 million, or 4.9%, to €4.27 billion. Compensation of employees—which includes imputed social contributions and public-sector pensions—increased by €108.3 million, or 3.8%, to €2.99 billion.

Intermediate consumption, covering goods and services used in the delivery of public services, rose by €114.3 million, or 11.0%, to €1.16 billion. Interest payments increased by €8.7 million, or 2.6%, to €340.7 million. Current transfers were up €68.7 million, or 10.6%, at €714.7 million.

Lower Capital Spending Limits Expenditure Growth

The overall increase in spending was tempered by a decline in capital expenditure. Capital-account spending fell by €189.9 million, or 16.9%, to €936.2 million from €1.13 billion in the same period last year.

Investment in fixed capital declined by €94.1 million, or 12.1%, to €686.4 million. Other capital transfers fell by €95.8 million, or 27.7%, to €249.8 million. Subsidies also decreased, dropping by €13.9 million, or 15.5%, to €75.8 million.

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