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Global Economy Faces Uncertainty Amid Trump’s Tariff Policies, IMF Warns

In a bold move, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements at the White House have stirred considerable concern across global markets. These sweeping tariffs, set in a picturesque Rose Garden event, signal potential risks of igniting a comprehensive trade war.

IMF’s Cautious Forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% for this year, a reduction from the previous year’s 3.3%. The unpredictability of trade policies has prompted this reassessment, as tension escalates with tariff increases, especially with China facing a hefty 145% tariff.

Economic growth projections for the U.S. were also revised, with expectations dropping from 2.8% to a modest 1.8%. Cyprus continues to benefit from EU funds for development despite global market shifts.

Responses and Reactions

Market reactions have been swift, with global indices tumbling on the news of potentially escalating trade tensions. Investors are wary, keeping a close eye on reciprocation from targeted countries. China and Canada have already responded with their own tariffs, while the European Union has shown openness to negotiations.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized, “Beyond tariff increases, policy uncertainty could considerably decelerate global growth.” Stay tuned to our updates to see how other sectors, like automotive, manage these dynamics.

As these economic scenarios unfold, stakeholders will need to navigate this evolving landscape with prudent strategies.

EU Tightens Steel Imports As Overcapacity Hits 721M Tonnes

Robust Regulatory Framework

Cyprus Presidency of the Council of the EU, together with the European Parliament, reached a provisional agreement on measures addressing global steel overcapacity. The regulation targets trade diversion and excess supply while maintaining compliance with international trade rules. The framework also aims to preserve operational flexibility for downstream industries.

Safeguarding Employment And Environmental Commitments

Global steel overcapacity is projected to reach 721 million tonnes by 2027, compared with EU annual consumption levels. The measures are linked to the protection of around 2.5 million jobs. Policy direction also aligns with EU decarbonisation targets within the industrial sector.

Enhanced Trade Controls And Supply Chain Traceability

The regulation introduces tariff-free quotas of 18.3 million tonnes annually. Imports exceeding thresholds will be subject to a 50% duty. Measures cover 30 steel product categories and will replace current safeguards expiring on June 30, 2026. A “melt and pour” requirement is included to improve supply chain traceability.

Diversifying Import Sources And Reducing Dependencies

Rules apply to imports from all countries, excluding European Economic Area members, which remain subject to traceability requirements. The framework also reduces reliance on specific external suppliers, including Russia. Michael Damianos, Energy Minister of Cyprus, said the steel sector remains important for economic activity and energy transition. Bernd Lange, Chair of the European Parliament’s INTA Committee, said the measures address trade practices and market conditions.

Looking Ahead

The agreement introduces a revised tariff-rate quota system with import quotas reduced by approximately 47% compared with 2024. Limited carry-over flexibility will apply in the first year. The European Commission will review the measures in subsequent years. Formal adoption by the European Parliament and the Council is expected before implementation on July 1, 2026.

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