Global air cargo demand registered a 2.9 percent increase in September 2025 compared to the previous year, with total capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), up by 3 percent. For international operations, demand rose by 3.2 percent while capacity advanced by 4.4 percent, maintaining a global load factor of 45.7 percent. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasized that these figures underscore the ongoing resilience in the air cargo market, marking the seventh consecutive month of overall growth.
Shifting Trade Patterns and Tariff Impacts
Walsh pointed to significant alterations in trade dynamics largely influenced by recent US tariff policies, including the cessation of de minimis exemptions. Although a decline in demand on the North America-Asia corridor has emerged over the past five months, robust growth in Asia and on routes connecting Asia to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East has more than compensated for this setback. The adaptability of the air cargo sector has allowed it to respond effectively to evolving market demands.
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Global and Regional Performance Overview
Several macroeconomic factors have contributed to the current operating environment. Global goods trade expanded by 7 percent year-on-year in August, while jet-fuel prices increased by 5.4 percent in September. Meanwhile, manufacturing sentiment strengthened for the second consecutive month, as evidenced by a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 51.3. Despite these positive trends, new export orders remained cautious due to prevailing tariff uncertainties.
Regionally, Asia-Pacific airlines led global growth with a 6.8 percent increase in demand and a 4.8 percent rise in capacity, yielding a load factor of 49.3 percent. African carriers delivered the strongest performance with a 14.7 percent demand increase and a 7.4 percent capacity gain. European airlines, while experiencing a modest demand rise of 2.5 percent against a 4.4 percent capacity surge, maintained the highest regional load factor at 51.3 percent. Middle Eastern carriers and those in Latin America and North America experienced varied impacts, reflecting the diverse challenges and opportunities across markets.
Trade Corridor Trends and Future Outlook
Air freight volumes surged across major trade corridors. Europe–Asia and within Asia routes posted double-digit growth, while Middle East–Asia, North America–Europe, and Africa–Asia routes also saw gains. In contrast, corridors such as Asia–North America, Middle East–Europe, and within Europe registered moderate declines. Notably, Europe–Asia traffic experienced a 12.4 percent year-on-year increase, marking a 31-month growth streak, and within Asia, volumes climbed 10 percent for the 23rd consecutive month.
Overall, the shift in global trade patterns and evolving tariff policies have introduced volatility in certain routes. Nevertheless, the robust performance of key regions, particularly Asia and Africa, alongside the sector’s adaptive capacity, positions air cargo favorably in an increasingly dynamic global marketplace.
