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France’s Debt Load Is Set to Hit a Multi-Decade High as Deficit Pressures Mount

France’s public debt is on track to reach its highest level since 1978, underscoring the scale of the fiscal challenge facing the eurozone’s second-largest economy as deficits remain stubbornly elevated.

A source at the finance ministry said public debt is expected to climb to 119.3% of gross domestic product in 2026 and 121.7% in 2027, more than double the European Union’s 60% reference threshold that member states are meant to pursue.

According to France’s national statistics agency, Insee, those levels would mark an unprecedented burden since 1978. The ministry source described the increase as “automatic,” the result of a deficit that remains high.

France Remains Among The Eurozone’s Most Indebted Economies

France is now the third most indebted country in the eurozone, behind only Greece and Italy. The contrast with some of its peers is notable: Spain’s debt fell below 100% of GDP in July, while Portugal reduced its debt ratio to below 90% in 2025.

Under EU fiscal rules, the annual public deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP. France, however, recorded a deficit of 5.1% last year, and the government expects it to rise to 5.4% this year.

Those figures have placed the country under enhanced EU monitoring for the past two years. The government now expects the deficit to ease to 5% next year, when France will hold elections to choose its next president and government.

Budget Scrutiny Intensifies Ahead Of Election Year

The government has submitted draft 2027 budget measures to the High Council of Public Finances, or HCFP, an independent fiscal watchdog that will assess their macroeconomic credibility and budgetary feasibility.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Thursday that the government is planning €54 billion in adjustments and spending cuts in the 2027 budget. But with elections approaching, he has left parliament to decide on some of the most politically sensitive measures, including a proposal to reduce tax breaks for pensioners.

The head of parliament’s finance committee has already argued that the proposed cuts would fall too broadly across the population and could hit lower-income households hardest.

Officials Say There Is Still Time To Stabilize The Outlook

Despite the deterioration in the fiscal outlook, the head of the HCFP said the situation is not yet beyond repair.

In an interview with Le Parisien, Amélie de Montchalin said, “The crisis is neither certain nor guaranteed — nor is it the only outcome.”

“France is not doomed, provided the choices made are swift and responsible,” she added.

The growth forecast for 2026 has recently been revised lower, as the French economy continues to struggle with weak consumer spending and, more recently, higher energy prices linked to the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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