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Fitch Upgrades Cyprus’s Credit Rating to ‘A-‘ from ‘BBB+’

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

December 9, 2024

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Cyprus’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘BBB+’ to ‘A-‘, citing significant progress in debt reduction, robust fiscal performance, and strong economic growth. The upgrade reflects a series of key rating drivers that underscore the country’s financial stability and growth prospects.

Sharp Decline in Debt-to-GDP Ratio

A standout factor in the upgrade is Cyprus’s remarkable reduction in its debt-to-GDP ratio. Fitch highlighted that Cyprus has achieved “one of the sharpest declines in public debt/GDP among Fitch-rated sovereigns in recent years.” Public debt is projected to fall from a peak of 113.5% in 2020 to 65.5% in 2024, with further reductions to 60% in 2025 and 55.1% in 2026. This trend would position Cyprus well below the current eurozone average of 89% and in line with the ‘A’-median ratio.

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Driving this debt reduction is a combination of factors, including high primary fiscal surpluses, sustained nominal GDP growth, and stable interest rate costs. Fitch forecasts an average primary surplus of 4.8% of GDP for the period 2024-2026, with the general government surplus expected to reach 3.9% of GDP in 2024.

Consistent Fiscal Discipline

Fitch acknowledged Cyprus’s consistent outperformance in fiscal results, which have regularly exceeded prior forecasts. Revenue growth, fuelled by strong employment gains and enhanced tax collection, has been a key contributor. Fitch projects a gradual decline in fiscal surpluses, averaging 2.9% in 2025-2026, but this still surpasses the projected ‘A’ median deficit of 2.7%.

Another crucial factor is Cyprus’s commitment to prudent fiscal policies, with support from across the political spectrum. This commitment includes a focus on debt reduction, increased revenue-raising capacity, and the maintenance of substantial cash reserves, which are expected to average 12% of GDP over the forecast period. Efforts to address long-term structural issues, such as financing the social security system, could further mitigate future fiscal risks.

Solid Economic Growth Outlook

Cyprus’s economic outlook remains positive, with Fitch forecasting GDP growth of 3.8% in 2024 and an average of 3.1% over the forecast period. Growth will be driven by high-performing sectors, notably information and communication technology (ICT) and financial services, which are known for their high productivity.

Unemployment is also on a steady downward trajectory. Fitch expects the unemployment rate to drop to 4.6% by 2026, a sharp decline from its peak of 16.1% in 2014.

Banking Sector Resilience

Cyprus’s banking sector has continued to strengthen, with Fitch highlighting improvements in solvency, liquidity, and profitability. Benefiting from higher interest rates and a favourable macroeconomic environment, banks have seen a reduction in non-performing loans (NPLs) — now at 7% as of the first half of 2024, down from 7.9% at the end of 2023. While still above the EU average, the drop was achieved organically rather than through asset sales, signalling long-term financial stability.

Fitch noted that improvements in the banking sector have reduced risks to macroeconomic stability and lowered the likelihood of contingent liabilities for the government. However, some legacy challenges within the sector remain and will need to be addressed in the medium term.

What the Upgrade Means for Cyprus

The Fitch upgrade to ‘A-‘ reflects growing international confidence in Cyprus’s fiscal and economic outlook. The country’s ability to reduce debt, maintain strong fiscal surpluses, and enhance banking sector stability all contributed to the rating uplift. This enhanced rating positions Cyprus more favourably in global financial markets, potentially reducing borrowing costs and attracting further investment.

As Cyprus continues to make progress on its economic and fiscal targets, it is well-placed to sustain its role as a regional financial hub, offering strong growth prospects and financial stability for investors and stakeholders alike.

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Cyprus Business Registrations Surge Despite EU Economic Pressures

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 16, 2026

Recent Eurostat data underscores a significant surge in new business registrations in Cyprus during the fourth quarter of 2025, outstripping the modest gains observed across the European Union. While the EU saw a 0.5% rise from the previous quarter, Cyprus posted notably stronger figures, signaling renewed entrepreneurial vigor.

Cyprus Emerges As A Leader In Business Creation

Utilizing 2021 as the benchmark, Cyprus’s business registration index climbed from 114.7 units in Q3 2025 to 118.7 units in Q4 2025, a marked improvement from 95.2 units recorded in Q4 2024. This robust growth not only surpasses the broader EU performance, which reached 112.5 units in the same period, but also highlights a remarkable year-on-year rebound in Cyprus’s market dynamics.

Differentiated Sectoral Trends Across Europe

The latest Eurostat report provides valuable insights into sector-specific developments. The information and communication sector led the charge with a 6.4% increase, followed by the industry sector, which expanded by 4.9%. However, modest contractions were observed in trade, as well as in the construction and transport sectors, each experiencing slight declines. Such mixed developments underscore the varying degrees of economic recovery and stress among different business segments.

Complex Economic Environment With Rising Insolvencies

Despite the positive trend in business registrations, the overall EU environment remains complex. A 2.5% increase in bankruptcy declarations from the previous quarter illustrates the financial pressures facing several sectors. Notably, the accommodation and food services sector saw an 8.6% rise in bankruptcies, while the information and communication sector and transport recorded increases of 7.9% and 5.6%, respectively. This juxtaposition of entrepreneurial activity and financial strain creates a nuanced economic landscape for investors and policymakers alike.

Strategic Implications For Stakeholders

The divergent trends in registrations and bankruptcies present both opportunities and challenges. For investors, the surge in business creation in Cyprus highlights an attractive market for emerging ventures. For policymakers, the need to foster sustainable growth while mitigating financial vulnerabilities is more critical than ever. As economic conditions continue to evolve, both local and EU-wide stakeholders must navigate this complex interplay between opportunity and risk.