Fiscal Council Chief Warns Of Hidden Risks Amid Sustained Economic Growth

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

November 10, 2025

Cyprus is currently experiencing a period of robust economic expansion and fiscal balance. Fiscal Council President Michalis Persianis highlighted in the 2024 activity report that the nation is poised to maintain growth around 3 percent, driven by widespread sectoral contributions. State revenues are climbing steadily, even outperforming forecasts adjusted for inflation and general expansion.

Emerging Risks In A Period Of Prosperity

Despite these favorable conditions, Persianis warned that apparent stability could be masking significant long-term risks. He noted that while employment indicators remain strong, a further drop in unemployment could serve as an early warning signal rather than a celebratory milestone. The sustained zero inflation during this high-growth phase exemplifies both the nation’s resilience and the subtle challenges that accompany prosperous times.

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Preparing Fiscal Space And Strategic Flexibility

Central to the Fiscal Council’s mandate is managing the nation’s debt trajectory, which remains on a downward path with a target of falling below 60 percent of GDP by 2025. According to Persianis, one of the Council’s key objectives is to preserve sufficient fiscal space. This flexibility is essential for governments to implement decisive measures when economic conditions require fiscal intervention. He emphasized that the current inflexibility in state expenditures—particularly indiscriminate social spending—limits available policy options and can entrench pro-cyclical dynamics.

Infrastructure, Climate, And Strategic Institutional Upgrades

Persianis underscored the urgent need to address structural weaknesses in vital infrastructures such as water supply, public transport, and energy. Challenges posed by climate change, which has transitioned from a theoretical scenario to a tangible reality, demand significant investment and forward-thinking strategies. His analysis also pointed to external uncertainties—from geopolitical turmoil to rapid technological advancements—that could reshape fiscal dynamics in coming years.

Long-Term Vision And Institutional Readiness

The Fiscal Council’s report calls for proactive, medium- to long-term strategies to safeguard Cyprus from future crises. While current surpluses offer a window of opportunity, Persianis reminded decision makers that easy times can mask the risks of complacency. He stressed the importance of enhanced analytical capacity and strategic planning within the Council to provide decisive guidance as external pressures intensify.

Upcoming Initiatives And Regional Cooperation

Looking forward, the Fiscal Council is organizing a thematic conference under the auspices of the European Network of Independent Fiscal Institutions (EU NIFI) in early 2026. This event, set against the backdrop of Cyprus’s forthcoming Presidency of the European Commission, underscores the critical role of institutional collaboration for broader fiscal reform and policy coordination across the European Union.

In summary, while Cyprus currently enjoys impressive economic health, the Fiscal Council’s leadership warns that significant challenges lie ahead. The nation’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline and implement strategic reforms will be pivotal in navigating the evolving global and domestic landscapes.

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Cyprus Income Distribution 2024: An In-Depth Breakdown of Economic Classes

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

December 24, 2025

New findings from the Cyprus Statistical Service offer a comprehensive analysis of the nation’s income stratification in 2024. The report, titled Population By Income Class, provides critical insights into the proportions of the population that fall within the middle, upper, and lower income brackets, as well as those at risk of poverty.

Income Distribution Overview

The data for 2024 show that 64.6% of the population falls within the middle income class – a modest increase from 63% in 2011. However, it is noteworthy that the range for this class begins at a comparatively low threshold of €15,501. Meanwhile, 27.8% of the population continues to reside in the lower income bracket (a figure largely unchanged from 27.7% in 2011), with nearly 14.6% of these individuals identified as at risk of poverty. The upper income class accounted for 7.6% of the population, a slight decline from 9.1% in 2011.

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Income Brackets And Their Thresholds

According to the report, the median equivalent disposable national income reached €20,666 in 2024. The upper limit of the lower income class was established at €15,500, and the threshold for poverty risk was set at €12,400. The middle income category spans from €15,501 to €41,332, while any household earning over €41,333 is classified in the upper income class. The median equivalents for each group were reported at €12,271 for the lower, €23,517 for the middle, and €51,316 for the upper income classes.

Methodological Insights And Comparative Findings

Employing the methodology recommended by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the report defines the middle income class as households earning between 75% and 200% of the national median income. In contrast, incomes exceeding 200% of the median classify households as upper income, while those earning below 75% fall into the lower income category.

Detailed Findings Across Income Segments

Upper Income Class: Comprising 73,055 individuals (7.6% of the population), this group had a median equivalent disposable income of €51,136. Notably, the share of individuals in this category has contracted since 2011.
Upper Middle Income Segment: This subgroup includes 112,694 people (11.7% of the population) with a median income of €34,961. Combined with the upper income class, they represent 185,749 individuals.
Middle Income Group: Encompassing 30.3% of the population (approximately 294,624 individuals), this segment reports a median disposable income of €24,975.
Lower Middle And Lower Income Classes: The lower middle income category includes 22.2% of the population (211,768 individuals) with a median income of €17,800, while the lower income class accounts for 27.8% (267,557 individuals) with a median income of €12,271.

Payment Behaviors And Economic Implications

The report also examines how income levels influence repayment behavior for primary residence loans or rental payments. Historically, households in the lower income class have experienced the greatest delays. In 2024, 27.0% of those in the lower income bracket were late on payments—a significant improvement from 34.6% in 2011. For the middle income class, late payments were observed in 9.9% of cases, down from 21.4% in 2011. Among the upper income class, only 3% experienced delays, compared to 9.9% previously.

This detailed analysis underscores shifts in income distribution and repayment behavior across Cyprus, reflecting broader economic trends that are critical for policymakers and investors to consider as they navigate the evolving financial landscape.

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