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Fintech Stocks Slide Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Market Volatility Raises Concerns Over Consumer Credit and Loan Repayments. Financial technology companies—including Robinhood and buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider Affirm—have been caught in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policy, with shares tumbling as investors brace for economic uncertainty.

Fintech Faces Growing Pressure

Since Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, global markets have been rattled, sparking fears of higher consumer prices, weaker demand, and a potential recession. Fintech firms, which rely on consumer spending and loan repayments, are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns.

  • Affirm (AFRM.O) shares have dropped over 21%, reflecting investor concerns over BNPL customers’ ability to repay loans.
  • Robinhood (HOOD.O) is down more than 17%, as its revenue from debit and credit card transactions could decline with softer consumer spending.
  • SoFi (SOFI.O) has lost nearly 20%, given its exposure to personal loans and banking services.

“A recession typically hits mass-market consumer businesses—including fintechs—harder than other sectors, as lower-income consumers cut back first,” said James Ulan, director of research at PitchBook.

Delinquencies On The Rise?

For credit-extending fintechs like Affirm and SoFi, the key concern is rising delinquency rates.

  • Affirm reported 2.5% of its monthly loans were delinquent by over 30 days as of December 31—slightly up from the previous year.
  • SoFi said 0.55% of its personal loans were delinquent by more than 90 days in the same period.
  • For comparison, banks reported a 2.75% delinquency rate on consumer loans, according to the Federal Reserve.

“With renewed inflation, excess cash flows are squeezed, and the ability to service debt weakens,” said John Hecht, analyst at Jeffries.

A Silver Lining?

Despite the turbulence, some analysts see a potential upside. If tariffs push Treasury yields lower, borrowing costs for fintech lenders could drop, making credit extension less risky.

“This could have unintended positive consequences for fintech stocks,” said Dan Dolev, senior analyst at Mizuho, arguing that markets may be overreacting.

Investors are also watching for potential negotiations on tariffs, which could ease recession fears and help stabilize fintech stocks.

“The real damage so far is mostly psychological,” said Nick Thompson, research analyst at Intro-act. “If we see quick relief, markets could rebound fast.”

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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