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Fintech Stocks Slide Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Market Volatility Raises Concerns Over Consumer Credit and Loan Repayments. Financial technology companies—including Robinhood and buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider Affirm—have been caught in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policy, with shares tumbling as investors brace for economic uncertainty.

Fintech Faces Growing Pressure

Since Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, global markets have been rattled, sparking fears of higher consumer prices, weaker demand, and a potential recession. Fintech firms, which rely on consumer spending and loan repayments, are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns.

  • Affirm (AFRM.O) shares have dropped over 21%, reflecting investor concerns over BNPL customers’ ability to repay loans.
  • Robinhood (HOOD.O) is down more than 17%, as its revenue from debit and credit card transactions could decline with softer consumer spending.
  • SoFi (SOFI.O) has lost nearly 20%, given its exposure to personal loans and banking services.

“A recession typically hits mass-market consumer businesses—including fintechs—harder than other sectors, as lower-income consumers cut back first,” said James Ulan, director of research at PitchBook.

Delinquencies On The Rise?

For credit-extending fintechs like Affirm and SoFi, the key concern is rising delinquency rates.

  • Affirm reported 2.5% of its monthly loans were delinquent by over 30 days as of December 31—slightly up from the previous year.
  • SoFi said 0.55% of its personal loans were delinquent by more than 90 days in the same period.
  • For comparison, banks reported a 2.75% delinquency rate on consumer loans, according to the Federal Reserve.

“With renewed inflation, excess cash flows are squeezed, and the ability to service debt weakens,” said John Hecht, analyst at Jeffries.

A Silver Lining?

Despite the turbulence, some analysts see a potential upside. If tariffs push Treasury yields lower, borrowing costs for fintech lenders could drop, making credit extension less risky.

“This could have unintended positive consequences for fintech stocks,” said Dan Dolev, senior analyst at Mizuho, arguing that markets may be overreacting.

Investors are also watching for potential negotiations on tariffs, which could ease recession fears and help stabilize fintech stocks.

“The real damage so far is mostly psychological,” said Nick Thompson, research analyst at Intro-act. “If we see quick relief, markets could rebound fast.”

AI Spending Is Complicating The Fed’s Fight Against Inflation

Silicon Valley leaders have long argued that artificial intelligence will make technology and services dramatically cheaper. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has described a future where intelligence becomes extremely inexpensive, while Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has predicted that AI and robotics will create greater abundance and drive down costs.

So far, those benefits have yet to materialise at scale. AI adoption remains relatively slow, while the enormous investment needed for data centres and AI infrastructure is putting pressure on electricity prices, supply chains and other costs. For the Federal Reserve, this creates a difficult balancing act: AI could eventually boost productivity and reduce inflation, but its current buildout is contributing to higher prices.

OpenAI chief economist Ronnie Chatterji said AI needs to be adopted by organisations and generate measurable value before its broader economic impact becomes visible in productivity statistics.

AI Adoption Remains Uneven

Capital spending on AI infrastructure in the U.S. is expected to reach $581 billion this year, according to Goldman Sachs Research, with global investment potentially reaching $1 trillion.

Despite the scale of spending, adoption remains far from universal. A May survey by the U.S. Census Bureau found that 17% to 20% of U.S. businesses reported using AI, with adoption significantly higher among large companies.

Companies that have implemented AI at scale also highlight the challenges. Julie Averill, former CIO of Lululemon, said successful deployment requires changes in employee behaviour and trust in the technology. OpenAI has observed a similar divide: its most advanced business users deploy AI at around eight times the rate of average companies.

Why Productivity Gains May Take Time

Economists point to the limits of automation. AI can perform individual tasks effectively, but many jobs combine tasks that are difficult to automate.

Stanford professor Charles Jones refers to these as “weak links”. Radiology, for example, involves interpreting scans but also communicating with patients and working with colleagues. AI can automate part of the job without eliminating the profession itself.

As a result, the full economic impact of AI may not become clear until businesses adopt the technology more broadly and reorganise their operations around it.

AI Adds To The Fed’s Policy Challenge

AI’s economic impact has become part of the Federal Reserve’s policy debate. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has argued that AI could eventually become a significant disinflationary force by increasing productivity and strengthening U.S. competitiveness.

Other officials are more cautious. In July, the Fed kept interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, while some officials expressed concern that AI infrastructure spending could add to inflationary pressures.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari pointed to massive data-centre investment as a new source of demand. Household electricity prices rose 10% in the two years through July, compared with a 6.2% increase in overall consumer prices. Meanwhile, shortages of chips and other AI components are pushing up costs. JPMorgan Chase estimates that DRAM prices could rise 400% by the end of 2026 compared with 2024.

Warsh has consequently adopted a more cautious tone, saying that while AI investment is laying the groundwork for future growth, the timing and scale of its economic effects remain difficult to predict.

For the Fed, the challenge is clear: AI could eventually deliver major productivity gains, but the cost of building that future is already showing up in the economy.

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