Market Volatility Raises Concerns Over Consumer Credit and Loan Repayments. Financial technology companies—including Robinhood and buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider Affirm—have been caught in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policy, with shares tumbling as investors brace for economic uncertainty.
Fintech Faces Growing Pressure
Since Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, global markets have been rattled, sparking fears of higher consumer prices, weaker demand, and a potential recession. Fintech firms, which rely on consumer spending and loan repayments, are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns.
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- Affirm (AFRM.O) shares have dropped over 21%, reflecting investor concerns over BNPL customers’ ability to repay loans.
- Robinhood (HOOD.O) is down more than 17%, as its revenue from debit and credit card transactions could decline with softer consumer spending.
- SoFi (SOFI.O) has lost nearly 20%, given its exposure to personal loans and banking services.
“A recession typically hits mass-market consumer businesses—including fintechs—harder than other sectors, as lower-income consumers cut back first,” said James Ulan, director of research at PitchBook.
Delinquencies On The Rise?
For credit-extending fintechs like Affirm and SoFi, the key concern is rising delinquency rates.
- Affirm reported 2.5% of its monthly loans were delinquent by over 30 days as of December 31—slightly up from the previous year.
- SoFi said 0.55% of its personal loans were delinquent by more than 90 days in the same period.
- For comparison, banks reported a 2.75% delinquency rate on consumer loans, according to the Federal Reserve.
“With renewed inflation, excess cash flows are squeezed, and the ability to service debt weakens,” said John Hecht, analyst at Jeffries.
A Silver Lining?
Despite the turbulence, some analysts see a potential upside. If tariffs push Treasury yields lower, borrowing costs for fintech lenders could drop, making credit extension less risky.
“This could have unintended positive consequences for fintech stocks,” said Dan Dolev, senior analyst at Mizuho, arguing that markets may be overreacting.
Investors are also watching for potential negotiations on tariffs, which could ease recession fears and help stabilize fintech stocks.
“The real damage so far is mostly psychological,” said Nick Thompson, research analyst at Intro-act. “If we see quick relief, markets could rebound fast.”
