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Eurozone Trade Deficit Widens As Machinery Exports Collapse, Cyprus Achieves Remarkable Recovery

Shifting Trade Dynamics In The Eurozone

The euro area recorded a trade deficit of €1.9 billion in January 2026, according to Eurostat, marking a reversal from a surplus a year earlier. The shift reflects lower export values alongside a sharp decline in surpluses across key sectors, particularly machinery and vehicles.

Export Declines And Import Trends

Exports fell to €215.3 billion, down 7.6% from €232.9 billion in January 2025, while imports declined by 7.3% to €217.2 billion from €234.3 billion a year earlier. Despite both flows decreasing, the monthly balance weakened significantly, moving from an €11.2 billion surplus in December 2025 to a deficit in January. The change points to uneven pressure across sectors rather than a broad-based contraction.

Sector-Specific Impacts

The machinery and vehicles sector saw the most pronounced shift, with its surplus falling to €1.6 billion from €13.2 billion a year earlier. The chemicals sector also recorded a decline, with its surplus dropping to €16.7 billion from €24.6 billion. In contrast, the energy sector showed some improvement, as its deficit narrowed to €19.2 billion from €26.2 billion, partially offsetting broader pressures.

EU-Wide Trade Patterns

Across the European Union, trade dynamics followed a similar pattern. The bloc recorded a deficit of €5.9 billion in January 2026, compared with €5.4 billion a year earlier, reversing a €12.3 billion surplus in December 2025. Lower trade volumes in machinery, vehicles and chemicals contributed to the shift, while improvements in the energy balance provided limited support.

Annual Trade Figures And Intra-Regional Activity

Despite the weaker start to the year, full-year data for 2025 remained positive. The euro area recorded a trade surplus of €149.9 billion, down from €159.0 billion in 2024, while the EU posted a surplus of €130.0 billion compared with €140.2 billion a year earlier. Intra-regional trade remained strong, with intra-euro area activity reaching €2.67 trillion and intra-EU trade totalling €4.14 trillion.

Cyprus’ Trade Balance Rebound

Against this backdrop, Cyprus reported an improvement in its trade balance. The deficit narrowed to €476.6 million in January 2026 from €707.5 million a year earlier, supported by lower import volumes and stronger export performance. Exports increased by 16.6% to €517.5 million, reflecting gains across multiple categories.

Export Category Performance In Cyprus

Growth was recorded in industrial, agricultural and re-exported goods, with vessel transfers showing a notable increase from €11.3 million to €193.5 million. For 2025, mineral fuels and oils remained the largest export category at €2.33 billion, while products such as halloumi cheese and pharmaceuticals continued to support export revenues.

Conclusion

Trade data shows weaker export performance and pressure in key sectors across the euro area at the start of 2026. Cyprus, in contrast, recorded a narrower deficit and higher exports, reflecting stronger performance across several categories.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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