Global tourism is heading for another record year in 2026, with Europe expected to outperform the wider market as travellers increasingly favour regional destinations over long-haul trips.
International overnight arrivals worldwide are forecast to reach 1.57 billion, up 2% from 2025. Europe is expected to record stronger growth of 5%, according to the WTM Global Travel Report 2026, produced by Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics.
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The report, covering more than 185 countries, forecasts 23.9 billion visitor nights across domestic and international travel. Spending at destinations is expected to increase by 9% to $7.8 trillion (€6.97 trillion).
Despite higher airfares, geopolitical tensions and pressure on household budgets, travel demand remains resilient. Three in four consumers say annual leisure trips remain a priority, although many are adjusting where and how they travel.
Regional Travel Supports Europe’s Growth
Europe is benefiting from a shift towards shorter and more accessible journeys. Worldwide, travel within the same region is forecast to grow by 3% in 2026, while inter-regional trips, including long-haul travel, are expected to decline by 3%.
Higher oil prices, inflation and airfares are making long-distance travel more expensive. Reduced capacity through Gulf aviation hubs and security concerns are also affecting demand. The Middle East is forecast to experience the sharpest decline, with international arrivals falling by 40%.
Already the world’s largest destination region for international leisure nights, Europe is expected to record a further 4% increase in this segment in 2026.
“Travellers are more active in 2026 than ever before,” said Dave Goodger, managing director for EMEA at Tourism Economics. He noted that leisure travel remains a priority despite cost-of-living pressures, with consumers adapting their destinations and travel choices.
International Travel Set For Stronger Recovery In 2027
Global international arrivals are forecast to increase by 8% in 2027, supported by an expected 11% rebound in inter-regional travel as disruption eases.
Europe is projected to grow by another 5%, while arrivals in the Middle East could recover by 43%. However, that increase would not fully restore the region’s visitor numbers to 2025 levels. Continued geopolitical tensions could also delay the broader recovery.
Europe Could Add 226 Million Arrivals By 2032
The longer-term outlook is particularly positive for Europe. The region is projected to record an additional 226 million international arrivals between 2026 and 2032, representing average annual growth of around 4%.
Worldwide, international overnight arrivals are expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2032. Rising incomes, continued consumer interest in travel and expanding aviation and accommodation capacity are expected to support the increase.
European Leisure Spending Continues To Rise
Total leisure spending in Europe, including domestic and international visitors, is forecast to reach $2.05 trillion (€1.83 trillion) in 2026.
International leisure spending is expected to grow by 11%, compared with an 8% increase in domestic spending. International visitors account for around one-third of Europe’s leisure expenditure, the highest share among the three largest regional markets: Europe, Asia and North America.
All spending forecasts are expressed in nominal US dollars and are not adjusted for inflation.
The outlook points to continued opportunities for European tourism businesses and destinations. With travellers prioritising leisure while becoming more selective about costs and destinations, regional accessibility and the ability to adapt to changing travel patterns will remain important competitive advantages.
