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Europe’s Social Protection Measures Fall Short In Combating Poverty Risks

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

November 28, 2025

Overview Of Divergent National Trends

The latest European Commission report, Social Protection Committee Annual Report 2025, highlights that existing social measures across Europe are not sufficiently robust to eliminate the risk of poverty among workers and the broader population. The report reveals a marked divergence among Member States: while nearly half report a significant reduction in poverty risk, almost one-third have experienced an increase.

Variations In Unemployment Benefit Uptake

Analysis indicates that in approximately half of the Member States, there has been an increase in the number of citizens receiving unemployment benefits. Particularly steep rises have been observed in countries such as Austria, Croatia, and the Netherlands. Conversely, countries including Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, and Spain have registered declines, with three Member States showing little to no change.

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Shifts In Social Welfare Distribution

The report further details that nearly half of the Member States have seen declines in the number of beneficiaries of social welfare benefits, with pronounced reductions in Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovakia. However, about one-third of the nations have experienced increases, notably marked in Bulgaria and Spain.

Ageing Populations And Benefit Allocations

Nine countries allocate more than half of their total social protection expenditure to old-age benefits. Italy tops this list at 59.2%, followed by Portugal (54.8%), Romania (53.2%), and Poland (52.7%). In some cases, these high allocations can be attributed to the challenges posed by an ageing population. Excluding Ireland, where disease and healthcare benefits dominate, the next highest expenditure in several countries has been in the area of healthcare, ranging from 45.0% in Ireland to around 22% in Finland, Denmark, and Italy.

Targeted Reforms For The Cultural And Self-Employed Sectors

Recent initiatives have been directed at workers in niche sectors. Belgium, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus have enhanced the social protection regimes for artists and other cultural professionals. In Poland, legislation is underway to integrate professional artists into the social security system, backed by public funding to support their contributions.

Innovations In Self-Employment Coverage

Several reforms have addressed the needs of the self-employed. For instance, Greece and Germany have extended maternity leave benefits to self-employed women, following Italy’s lead from 2022. Malta has broadened paternity leave rights for the self-employed. Moreover, Cyprus has expanded benefits relating to workplace accidents and occupational illnesses for the self-employed, while Belgium now mandates platform companies to insure their self-employed workers against workplace accidents.

Deferred Reforms And Future Considerations

However, not all announced measures have been implemented as planned. For instance, Cyprus opted not to extend unemployment benefits to self-employed individuals at this stage, and Poland has yet to adopt its scheduled comprehensive reform for extending social protection to all workers under civil contracts.

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ECB Launches Geopolitical Stress Tests For 110 Eurozone Banks

The European Central Bank is preparing a new round of geopolitical stress tests aimed at assessing potential risks to major financial institutions across the euro area. Up to 110 systemic banks, including institutions in Greece and the Bank of Cyprus, will take part in the exercise, which examines how geopolitical events could affect financial stability.

Timeline And Testing Process

Banks are expected to submit initial data on March 16, 2026. Supervisors will review the information in April, while the final results are scheduled to be published in July 2026. The process forms part of the ECB’s broader supervisory work to evaluate financial system resilience under different risk scenarios.

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Geopolitical Shock As The Primary Concern

The stress tests place particular emphasis on geopolitical risks. These may include armed conflicts, economic sanctions, cyberattacks and energy supply disruptions. Such events can affect banks through changes in market conditions, borrower solvency and sector exposure. Lending portfolios linked to regions or industries affected by geopolitical developments may face higher risk levels.

Reverse Stress Testing: A Tailored Approach

Unlike traditional stress tests that apply the same scenario to all institutions, the reverse stress test requires each bank to define a scenario that could significantly affect its capital position. Banks must identify a geopolitical shock that could reduce their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio by at least 300 basis points. Institutions are also expected to assess potential effects on liquidity, funding conditions and broader economic indicators such as GDP and unemployment.

Customized Risk Assessments And Supervisor Collaboration

This methodology allows banks to submit risk assessments based on their own exposures and operational structures. The approach is intended to help supervisors understand how geopolitical events could affect institutions differently and to support discussions between banks and regulators on risk management and contingency planning.

Differentiated Vulnerabilities Across Countries

A joint report by the ECB and the European Systemic Risk Board indicates that countries respond differently to geopolitical shocks. The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to higher energy prices and inflation across Europe, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Greece and Austria experienced increases in borrowing costs and lower investor confidence. Germany, France and Portugal recorded more moderate changes, while Spain, Malta, Latvia and Finland showed intermediate levels of exposure.

Conclusion

The geopolitical stress tests will not immediately lead to additional capital requirements for banks. Their results will feed into the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP). ECB supervisors may use the findings when assessing capital adequacy, risk management practices and operational resilience at individual institutions.