For decades, Europe has led the world in life expectancy, with people born today expected to live well into their 80s. But after years of steady gains, progress stalled in the 2010s—long before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a sharp decline. A new study sheds light on why longevity gains slowed and what policymakers can do to reverse the trend.
The Numbers Tell The Story
A study published in The Lancet Public Health examined life expectancy trends across 20 European nations, including Germany, France, the UK, and Nordic countries. Between 1990 and 2011, life expectancy rose by an average of 0.23 years per year, driven by fewer deaths from heart disease and cancer. This meant that each new generation could expect to live nearly three months longer than the previous one.
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However, from 2011 to 2019, that rate dropped to 0.15 years per year, signaling a clear slowdown. England experienced the sharpest stagnation, followed by Germany and Spain. Meanwhile, Nordic countries saw only minimal deceleration, maintaining their upward trajectory.
What’s Behind The Slowdown?
The primary culprit: a rise in deaths from cardiovascular diseases linked to obesity, high cholesterol, hypertension, poor diet, and lack of physical activity. While past public health efforts successfully reduced mortality from infectious diseases and cancer, lifestyle-related health risks have become more prevalent.
Demographic shifts also play a role. Researchers suggest that increased migration in countries like the UK, France, and Germany has altered the population’s age structure, impacting overall life expectancy figures.
The Pandemic Effect
COVID-19 accelerated the decline. From 2019 to 2021, life expectancy fell across most of Europe, with Greece and England seeing the biggest drops—0.61 and 0.6 years, respectively. However, some countries fared better. Life expectancy continued to rise in Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Ireland, while Belgium held steady.
Why did some nations withstand the crisis better? The study suggests that strong public health policies played a crucial role. Countries with proactive healthcare systems and healthier populations before the pandemic were more resilient when the crisis hit.
Reversing The Trend: What Needs To Change?
The solution lies in aggressive public health strategies. The study highlights key policy areas that could help reinvigorate longevity gains:
- Targeting preventable health risks – Governments must double down on initiatives promoting healthier diets, regular exercise, and better access to preventive healthcare.
- Investing in social infrastructure – Research shows that increased public spending on education and disability services correlates with longer life expectancy.
- Economic stability matters – A 2021 study in England found that cuts to local government funding widened the gap in life expectancy between wealthy and lower-income areas.
Signs Of A Rebound?
There’s hope. Recent data from the European Union suggests life expectancy has begun to recover, with the average reaching 81.5 years in 2023. However, some nations—including Austria, Finland, Estonia, the Netherlands, Greece, and Germany—are still seeing declines.
“Life expectancy for older people in many countries is still improving, showing that we have not yet reached a natural longevity ceiling,” says lead researcher Nick Steel. “We still can reduce risks and prevent early mortality.”
The question now is whether policymakers will act decisively—or risk allowing Europe’s hard-won longevity gains to erode further.
