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European House Prices Keep Climbing, But The Pace Varies Sharply By Market

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Housing Inflation Remains A Europe-Wide Story

House prices continue to rise across much of Europe, but the scale of that growth varies dramatically from one market to the next. In the second quarter of 2026, Portugal, Bulgaria and Spain posted double-digit annual gains, while prices fell in Finland, Luxembourg and France.

Across the European Union, home prices were up 4.7% year on year, ahead of inflation at 3.2%. The headline figure suggests resilience, but the regional picture reveals a far more uneven market shaped by local supply constraints, financing conditions and household demand.

Portugal And Bulgaria Lead The Region

Among 29 European countries tracked by Eurostat, nine recorded double-digit annual house price increases. Portugal posted the strongest rise, at 16.5%, followed closely by Bulgaria at 15.5%.

Mikk Kalmet, real estate expert at Global Property Guide, said Portuguese housing demand continues to outpace supply, particularly in Lisbon, Porto and popular coastal destinations.

“Limited new construction, foreign investment, tourism-related demand and persistent housing shortages have all contributed to rising prices,” Kalmet told Euronews Business.

In Bulgaria, he pointed to rising household incomes, wage growth, relatively affordable mortgage financing and strong demand for property as an investment as key drivers of price growth.

Lithuania (14.3%), Slovakia (13.6%), Croatia (12.7%), Spain (12.1%), Romania (12.1%), Latvia (11.4%) and Hungary (10.2%) also recorded annual gains above 10%.

Denmark (9.4%), Slovenia (9.1%) and Czechia (8.6%) came close to that threshold, while Cyprus (7.9%), Malta (6.9%), Poland (6.3%), Ireland (6%), Estonia (5.8%), Austria (5.1%) and Sweden (4.8%) also outpaced the EU average.

Only Three Markets Posted Declines

At the other end of the spectrum, Finland (-2.7%), Luxembourg (-2.2%) and France (-0.8%) were the only countries to record year-on-year declines in house prices.

Kalmet said Finland’s weak economic growth, subdued consumer confidence and the lingering effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on the market.

In France, he said affordability pressures, relatively weak housing demand and the impact of previously elevated mortgage rates have pushed prices lower, while broader economic uncertainty has also encouraged some buyers to delay purchases.

Among the EU’s largest economies, Spain stands out with a 12.1% increase. Italy rose 4%, below the EU average, while Germany managed only a marginal 0.6% gain, just ahead of France’s decline.

Commenting on Germany, Carsten Brzeski and Franziska Biehl of ING said higher mortgage rates have returned, affordability has worsened and demand for mortgage loans is weakening.

Why Europe’s Housing Market Is Splitting In Two

Kalmet said the divergence in house price growth largely reflects local fundamentals rather than a single Europe-wide trend. Housing shortages, wage growth, mortgage conditions and demographic pressures all play a role.

“Housing markets are fundamentally local, even though European countries share many of the same economic and monetary conditions,” he said.

Where demand is strong and new construction is limited, prices tend to rise faster. Where growth is weaker, consumer demand is softer or borrowing costs weigh more heavily on buyers, house price growth slows or turns negative.

Inflation Still Matters

When inflation is stripped out, real house price growth remains strong in many markets. Across the EU, with inflation at 3.2%, house prices rose 1.5% in real terms.

Portugal again led the pack, with inflation of 3.6% still leaving real house price growth at 12.1%.

Real gains also exceeded 7% in Slovakia (9.4%), Bulgaria (9.1%), Lithuania (8.8%), Spain (8.3%), Latvia (7.9%), Denmark (7.7%), Hungary (7.7%) and Croatia (7.5%).

Six countries saw real prices fall, led by Luxembourg at -6.4%. Real house prices also declined in France (-3.2%) and Germany (-2%).

Kalmet said the main forces shaping the market over the past year have been persistent housing shortages, household income growth and changing mortgage conditions.

“In many European countries, residential construction has failed to keep pace with housing demand,” he said.

What Comes Next

Looking ahead, Kalmet expects tight supply and continued demand to support further price increases in many European markets. But he warned that growth is likely to remain uneven, and another year of double-digit gains should not be assumed.

The biggest unknown is interest rates. The European Central Bank raised rates in September 2026 in response to renewed inflationary pressure. Higher mortgage costs, combined with weaker purchasing power driven by rising energy prices, could cool housing demand.

Brzeski and Biehl said prospective buyers in Germany now face a difficult combination of higher property prices, more expensive financing and lingering pressure on real incomes, compounded by the broader economic fallout from the war in the Middle East.

Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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