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Eurobank: The Impact Of Trump’s Tariffs On The Greek Economy – Exports To The US And Indirect Effects Through The EU

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 24, 2025

On the occasion of the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, on January 20, 2025, and his campaign promises to implement protectionist policies in US trade, Eurobank analysts have provided insights into the potential effects on the Greek economy. These effects are outlined in the weekly bulletin “7 Days Economy,” using the most recent trade data between Greece and the US.

In the 11 months from January to November 2024, the share of the US in total Greek merchandise exports was around 4.8% or €2.19 billion at current prices. However, the impact of any potential protectionist policies by the US may not be limited to direct effects on Greek exports but may also have indirect repercussions. These could stem from Greece’s trade relations with the European Union (EU), where around 20% of EU-27 exports are purchased by US entities.

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According to the latest trade data from Eurostat, Greek exports of goods to the US during this period amounted to €2.19 billion, while imports from the US stood at €1.99 billion. As a result, Greece had a trade surplus with the US of €203.5 million. When breaking it down by category, food and live animals showed the largest surplus at €521.6 million, while fossil fuels, lubricants, and related products recorded the biggest deficit at €399 million.

The share of Greek merchandise exports to the US stood at 4.8% in the period from January to November 2024, slightly above the long-term average of 4.5%. For the entire year of 2024, Greek exports to the US are expected to account for 1% of Greece’s GDP. Among the product categories, the US accounted for 7.7% of Greek food and live animal exports, followed by oils and fats (7.2%), machinery and transport equipment (6.5%), and manufactured goods mainly classified by raw materials (5.1%).

A potential increase in tariffs on products imported by the US from the EU-27 could negatively affect some of these Greek exports, particularly in the food and live animals sector, oils and fats, and machinery. For 2024, Greek exports of goods to the US are projected to reach 1% of GDP or approximately €2.4 billion. The extent of the impact on Greek exports will depend on the magnitude of any tariff increase and the elasticity of demand for Greek goods in the face of such price hikes.

Indirect Effects Of Greece’s Trade Relations With The EU

In addition to the direct impact on Greek exports to the US, protectionist measures from the US could also have indirect effects on the Greek economy. This is due to the interconnected nature of Greece’s trade with the EU-27 and the EU’s trade with the US. In the period from January to November 2024, the EU-27 accounted for approximately 55.3% of Greek merchandise exports, or €25.4 billion. The US, in turn, represented 20.6% of EU-27 exports, totaling €490.1 billion (excluding intra-EU trade).

A potential tariff increase on EU-27 exports to the US could lead to:

A reduction in EU-27 exports of goods to the US.
A decrease in the income of EU-27 businesses.
Lower Greek exports of goods and services to the EU-27.

Furthermore, a portion of Greek exports to the EU-27 consists of intermediate goods used in the production of final products that the EU-27 exports to the US. This adds another layer of potential impact on Greek exports through participation in European value chains.

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ECB Launches Geopolitical Stress Tests For 110 Eurozone Banks

The European Central Bank is preparing a new round of geopolitical stress tests aimed at assessing potential risks to major financial institutions across the euro area. Up to 110 systemic banks, including institutions in Greece and the Bank of Cyprus, will take part in the exercise, which examines how geopolitical events could affect financial stability.

Timeline And Testing Process

Banks are expected to submit initial data on March 16, 2026. Supervisors will review the information in April, while the final results are scheduled to be published in July 2026. The process forms part of the ECB’s broader supervisory work to evaluate financial system resilience under different risk scenarios.

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Geopolitical Shock As The Primary Concern

The stress tests place particular emphasis on geopolitical risks. These may include armed conflicts, economic sanctions, cyberattacks and energy supply disruptions. Such events can affect banks through changes in market conditions, borrower solvency and sector exposure. Lending portfolios linked to regions or industries affected by geopolitical developments may face higher risk levels.

Reverse Stress Testing: A Tailored Approach

Unlike traditional stress tests that apply the same scenario to all institutions, the reverse stress test requires each bank to define a scenario that could significantly affect its capital position. Banks must identify a geopolitical shock that could reduce their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio by at least 300 basis points. Institutions are also expected to assess potential effects on liquidity, funding conditions and broader economic indicators such as GDP and unemployment.

Customized Risk Assessments And Supervisor Collaboration

This methodology allows banks to submit risk assessments based on their own exposures and operational structures. The approach is intended to help supervisors understand how geopolitical events could affect institutions differently and to support discussions between banks and regulators on risk management and contingency planning.

Differentiated Vulnerabilities Across Countries

A joint report by the ECB and the European Systemic Risk Board indicates that countries respond differently to geopolitical shocks. The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to higher energy prices and inflation across Europe, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Greece and Austria experienced increases in borrowing costs and lower investor confidence. Germany, France and Portugal recorded more moderate changes, while Spain, Malta, Latvia and Finland showed intermediate levels of exposure.

Conclusion

The geopolitical stress tests will not immediately lead to additional capital requirements for banks. Their results will feed into the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP). ECB supervisors may use the findings when assessing capital adequacy, risk management practices and operational resilience at individual institutions.