Euro Steadies Near Six-Week High Amid ECB Policy Shift and US Economic Uncertainty

Market Overview And Strategic Currency Movements

The euro has edged near six-week highs against the dollar as markets anticipate an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. In contrast, the US dollar has mounted a modest recovery after concerns over slowing growth and persistent inflation were reignited by new economic data.

Data-Driven Shifts In Economic Sentiment

Recent reports reveal that the US services sector contracted in May for the first time in nearly a year, accompanied by signs of a loosening labor market. This data led to a rally in Treasuries, boosting speculation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.

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Currency Adjustments And The Awaited ECB Decision

Senior strategist Michael Brown of Pepperstone noted that the markets have largely traded within narrow ranges, though some dollar weakness was evident following the surprise downturn in US ISM services data. By Thursday, the dollar registered modest gains against both the yen and Swiss franc, signaling a cautious repositioning by investors ahead of the ECB’s policy announcement and the closely watched US jobs report set for Friday.

ECB Policy Outlook And Eurozone Economic Challenges

Market expectations lean towards the ECB trimming its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points—its eighth reduction in 13 months—as inflation pressures ease. Analysts from Commerzbank anticipate revised lower growth and inflation forecasts for 2025, a move aimed at supporting a eurozone economy already beleaguered by past regional challenges and erratic global trade policies.

Global Implications And Strategic Currency Prospects

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, cautioned that while downside risks remain for the euro ahead of the ECB meeting, any discussion regarding a globalized euro could buoy the currency. Echoing this sentiment, ECB President Christine Lagarde recently declared that the euro might emerge as a viable alternative to the dollar, citing inflation control as a key determinant in her support for a stronger currency.

US Labor Market And The Future Of Monetary Policy

Looking further ahead, US payrolls data due Friday is expected to offer deeper insights into the labor market. Preliminary figures from ADP indicate that US private payrolls in May have grown less robustly than anticipated. Economists predict a non-farm payroll increase of 130,000 jobs for May, with the unemployment rate projected to hold at 4.2 percent.

Geopolitical Tensions And The Dollar’s Decline

Investor caution remains high amid ongoing US trade negotiations and unpredictable tariff policies, issues that have pressured the dollar. The dollar index, now at 98.87, has fallen approximately 9 percent this year, approaching its weakest performance since 2017. Calls by political leaders for a more accommodative monetary policy have only compounded these concerns, intensifying market anxiety over the Federal Reserve’s future course.

As policymakers and market participants brace for further developments, the interlinked dynamics of ECB policy decisions, US economic data, and global trade uncertainties will continue to shape currency performance and investor sentiment in the months ahead.

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Cyprus Foreclosure Reform Debate Intensifies Amid Rising Non-Performing Loans

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 18, 2026

Political Stakes And Foreclosure Regulation

Cypriot political parties are engaging in a high-stakes debate in parliament as they deliberate changes to the legal framework governing foreclosures ahead of the May parliamentary elections. The proposed shifts are aimed at curbing the rapid escalation in the value of non-performing loans, a trend that has sparked significant public and legislative concern. Confidential data from the Central Bank of Cyprus indicates that the nation has not yet moved away from its longstanding issues related to so-called “red loans.”

Non-Performing Loans: A Mounting Financial Challenge

Recent figures show that the value of distressed loans has continued to rise, surpassing €20 billion following transfers involving banks and credit recovery companies. This level exceeds the approximately €15 billion recorded during the economic crisis period. Central Bank data indicates that after loan sales, credit recovery firms now manage portfolios totaling €19.7 billion, of which €18.5 billion are classified as non-performing. About 87% of these loans are considered terminated, while the firms acquired 141,478 loans for €3.2 billion, roughly 80% below their original value.

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Credit Recovery Companies: Overshooting Investment Returns

By June, credit recovery companies had recovered €5.7 billion through a combination of cash repayments, judicial asset auctions and property-for-debt exchanges. Cash repayments accounted for €3.6 billion, judicial recoveries contributed €619 million, and property swaps added €1.5 billion. These recoveries exceeded the original purchase cost of many loan portfolios while overall balances continued to increase due to accrued interest, a development that remains a concern for policymakers.

Bank Portfolios And The Impact On Financial Stability

Data from the State Guarantee Fund for Deposits and Loans shows that 77,561 loans valued at €7.5 billion were transferred, leaving a remaining balance of €5.7 billion by June 2025, of which €5 billion are non-performing. Within the banking sector, non-performing loans totaled €1.45 billion across 24,736 accounts as of last June. Since December 2024, these figures have improved by approximately €86 million due to repayments and asset recoveries. The reduction in problematic loans has lowered bank exposure compared with levels recorded during the 2013 crisis.

Legislative Proposals And Government Considerations

Political leaders argue that adjustments to foreclosure procedures can be introduced without undermining banking stability. Parliament’s Economic Committee is scheduled to begin discussions on March 9, with an estimated 20 to 30 legislative proposals currently pending from multiple parties. While the Ministry of Finance has not announced immediate legislative action, officials are evaluating the potential reintroduction of elements of the Rent-Versus-Rate plan for vulnerable borrowers, subject to fiscal impact assessments.

Advocacy From AKEL And Environmental Groups

Proposals supported by the AKEL party and several civil organizations focus on strengthening legal protections for borrowers. Among the suggested measures is restoring the right to seek judicial relief to delay foreclosures in cases involving disputed charges or alleged abusive contract clauses. AKEL representative Aristos Damianou criticized the pace of foreclosure proceedings and warned of risks to primary residences and small businesses.

Proposals Targeting Guarantors And Foreclosure Processes

The Democratic Rally party has introduced a proposal aimed at limiting guarantor liability during foreclosure procedures. Under the draft measure, if a property is auctioned or repossessed, the guarantor’s responsibility would be capped at the original loan amount adjusted by recovered sums. The proposal also requires that enforcement actions against guarantors be suspended until a court ruling is issued if the borrower formally disputes the debt.

Revisions Proposed By The Democratic Party of Cyprus

The Democratic Party is also preparing new legislative measures to be introduced on Thursday. Party leader Mario Karogian outlined plans to suspend the foreclosures of primary residences valued up to €350,000 until the end of the year, allowing time to address legislative gaps. Additional proposals include broadening the powers of the Financial Ombudsperson to make binding decisions on disputes up to €50,000, enforcing the Central Bank’s code of conduct, and ensuring strict adherence to refinancing guidelines for first residences.

Outlook And Strategic Implications

The range of proposals reflects an ongoing effort to balance financial system stability with stronger consumer protections. Decisions made in the coming months are expected to shape the regulatory environment for foreclosures and influence broader confidence in Cyprus’ financial sector and economic outlook.

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