Euro Area Trade Surplus Squeezed In November 2025 As Machinery Exports Slide

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

January 16, 2026

The euro area recorded a €9.90 billion surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in November 2025, marking a notable decline from the €15.40 billion surplus in November 2024. Eurostat’s latest data points to a cooling in international trade activity, driven primarily by weaker exports of manufactured goods, despite improvements in the energy sector.

Declining Exports And Imports

In November 2025, the euro area’s exports fell to €240.20 billion, a 3.4 percent drop from €248.70 billion a year earlier. Imports declined by 1.3 percent to €230.30 billion, compared with €233.30 billion in November 2024. This contraction in trade was mainly due to reduced activity in the manufacturing sector, which was only partially offset by gains in energy.

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Sectoral Shifts: Improvement In Energy Performance

Among the notable shifts, the energy sector showed substantial improvement. The energy deficit was narrowed significantly, decreasing from a minus €24.30 billion in November 2024 to minus €17.60 billion in November 2025. This improvement underscores strategic adjustments in energy-related policies and investments aimed at mitigating broader economic challenges.

Year-To-Date Performance And Trends

For the first 11 months of 2025, the euro area achieved a total surplus of €152.70 billion, a decrease from €156.80 billion in the same period of 2024. During this period, exports to the rest of the world increased by 2.3 percent to €2.70 trillion, while imports edged up by 2.6 percent to €2.55 trillion. Intra-euro area trade also grew by 1.6 percent, reaching €2.42 trillion, reflecting steady domestic market activities within the single currency bloc.

European Union Trade Outlook

Across the wider European Union, the trade surplus in November 2025 stood at €8.10 billion, compared with €11.80 billion in November 2024. EU exports fell by 4.4 percent to €213.80 billion, while imports declined by 2.9 percent to €205.70 billion. Although the energy deficit improved, shrinking from €28.20 billion to €20.40 billion, weaker performance in key manufacturing segments, particularly machinery and vehicles, weighed on the overall balance.

Over the first 11 months of 2025, the EU recorded a trade surplus of €122.40 billion, down from €128.00 billion in the same period of 2024. Exports and imports increased by 2 percent and 2.3 percent respectively, while intra-EU trade grew by 2.2 percent to €3.82 trillion. The data points to mixed trends across EU trade rather than a uniform pattern of expansion or contraction.

Seasonally Adjusted Insights

On a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis, figures for November 2025 show that euro area exports increased by 1.1 percent and imports by 2.5 percent, resulting in a surplus of €10.70 billion. In the European Union, exports rose by 2 percent and imports by 3.5 percent, yielding a seasonally adjusted surplus of €8.80 billion.

During the three months from September to November 2025, trade with non-euro and non-EU partners revealed divergent trends. Manufactured goods continued to face challenges, while energy-related trade showed relative strength.

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Drought And Rising Temperatures Pose Long-Term Risk To Cyprus Growth

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

August 25, 2026

More frequent droughts and extreme heat are creating economic risks across Europe, with Cyprus particularly exposed because of its limited water resources and dependence on climate-sensitive sectors. Morningstar DBRS said successive heatwaves and below-average rainfall during the summer of 2026 had worsened drought conditions across parts of Europe, affecting agriculture, inland transport, industry and power generation.

Climate Risks Are Increasing Economic Costs

Droughts are becoming more frequent and severe worldwide, according to Morningstar DBRS. While the impact on the creditworthiness of most sovereigns remains limited for now, the agency said long-term economic effects will depend on how effectively countries adapt to more frequent and costly weather events.

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“As climate risks accumulate and droughts become more frequent and costly, it is critical to assess the various economic impacts,” said Adriana Alvarado, senior vice-president in Morningstar DBRS’ Sovereign Ratings Group. The agency considers whether extreme weather could damage national wealth, weaken financial systems or disrupt economic activity when assessing sovereign creditworthiness.

Cyprus Faces Exposure Across Several Sectors

Cyprus is particularly exposed through water availability, agriculture and tourism. A study by the Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus estimated that cumulative discounted GDP losses under a business-as-usual climate scenario could reach about €29 billion by 2050 and €162 billion by 2100, with tourism, financial services and agriculture among the most vulnerable sectors.

Under the same scenario, tourism losses were projected at about €3.8 billion by 2050, while agriculture could face GDP losses of €500 million. Both figures were lower under scenarios involving stronger climate action.

Water And Tourism Face Direct Pressure

Limited water resources and prolonged hot, dry periods can reduce agricultural output and increase pressure on water infrastructure. Tourism is also exposed as rising temperatures and extreme heat affect the traditional summer season.

“Climate, quality and digital data will determine tourism development over the next five years,” said Nejc Jus, research director at the World Travel and Tourism Council. He said destinations may need to extend shoulder seasons as hotter conditions affect visitor demand.

Climate Investment Remains A Concern

Cyprus’ Fiscal Council has warned that investment in climate adaptation and mitigation remains below the level required by the island’s exposure to physical climate risks. The council said those risks could increasingly affect public finances, households and businesses, while higher climate-related financial risks could influence borrowing costs and sovereign credit ratings.

Cyprus has also sought greater regional cooperation on climate adaptation. At an international climate conference in Nicosia earlier this year, the government called for closer coordination across the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.

The Morningstar DBRS assessment comes as Cyprus continues to face drought, water shortages and rising temperatures. Those risks affect several parts of the economy, particularly agriculture and tourism.

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