EU Unemployment Reaches Historic Lows, Long-Term and Youth Rates Show Significant Improvement

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

November 11, 2024

According to the latest data from Eurostat, unemployment across the European Union has fallen to its lowest levels in recent history. The statistics reveal a decline in the number of people out of work, with only a little over 6% of the working-age population currently unemployed.

Key Statistics

Overall Unemployment: In 2023, the EU’s unemployment rate for those aged 15-74 stands at 6.1%, the lowest since 2014.
Long-Term Unemployment: The rate of long-term unemployment, measuring those out of work for over a year, has also hit a new low, at 2.1% of the labour force in 2023.
Highest Long-Term Unemployment: Greece reports the highest long-term unemployment rate within the EU at 6.2%, followed by Spain at 4.3% and Italy at 4.2%.
Lowest Long-Term Unemployment: Denmark and the Netherlands report the lowest rates, both at 0.5%.

Youth Unemployment at Record Low

Youth unemployment, defined as those aged 15-29, has also dropped to a record low of 6.3% in 2023, marking a continuing downward trend. However, disparities between countries are noticeable:

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Highest Youth Unemployment: Sweden has the highest youth unemployment rate in the EU at 10.9%, closely followed by Spain (10.8%) and Greece (9.8%).
Lowest Youth Unemployment: The Czech Republic leads with the lowest rate at 2.4%, with Bulgaria (3.2%) and Germany (3.3%) close behind.

This data highlights significant strides in labour market recovery and stability across the EU, although variances remain between member states. Countries like Greece and Spain continue to experience challenges, particularly in reducing long-term and youth unemployment rates. However, the overall trend points to a stronger labour market, with more EU citizens gaining employment and fewer experiencing prolonged joblessness.

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European Central Bank Report Highlights Stable Inflation and Economic Outlook

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 29, 2025

Overview Of Inflation Trends

The latest European Central Bank survey shows a slight decline in median inflation expectations over the next 12 months, decreasing from 2.8% in August to 2.7% in September. Despite this minor adjustment, consumer perceptions of past 12-month inflation have held steady at 3.1% for the eighth consecutive month. Long-term projections for three- and five-year inflation remain stable at 2.5% and 2.2% respectively.

Consumer Expectations Drive Income And Spending Projections

Across the board, expectations for nominal income growth over the upcoming year have remained consistent at 1.1%. However, there is a noticeable shift in spending behavior: while perceived nominal spending growth for the past year slipped slightly to 4.9% from 5.0%, expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months rose to 3.5%. Notably, lower income groups continue to forecast marginally higher spending increases compared to their higher income counterparts.

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Stability In Economic And Labour Market Outlook

Economic growth expectations are modestly pessimistic, with respondents forecasting a contraction of -1.2% over the next 12 months. Concurrently, anticipated unemployment levels remain unchanged at 10.7% a year ahead, though the outlook varies by income, with lower income households expecting unemployment rates as high as 12.7%, while higher income groups maintain expectations around 9.4%. Overall, the slight difference between current and future unemployment suggests a broadly stable labor market outlook.

Housing Market And Credit Conditions

The survey also reveals an upswing in expectations related to the housing market. Home price growth expectations have edged higher to 3.5%, and anticipated mortgage interest rates have risen modestly to 4.6%. Similar to other metrics, expectations vary by income, with lower income households expecting higher mortgage rates. In recent months, a marginal decline in reported credit tightening over the past 12 months contrasts with a renewed forecast of tighter credit conditions in the forthcoming year.

Conclusion

The ECB’s latest findings underscore the delicate balance between stable long-term economic forecasts and short-term adjustments in consumer expectations. The slight dips in inflation expectations, alongside stable perceptions of past inflation, delineate a marketplace that is both cautious and measured. As income, spending, and housing market metrics continue to evolve, these indicators provide critical insights for policymakers and investors navigating an increasingly complex economic landscape.

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