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EU-U.S. Trade In 2025: Surpluses, Shifting Flows And Strategic Ties

Trade Overview And Robust Growth

In 2025, the European Union exported goods worth €554.0 billion to the United States and imported €354.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of €199.6 billion. Exports increased 3.4% year over year, while imports rose 4.8%, reflecting continued strength in transatlantic trade flows.

Fluctuating Quarterly Trends

Trade activity varied across the year. The first quarter recorded strong growth in both exports and imports, supported by higher demand in U.S. markets. The second quarter showed a decline, followed by limited recovery in imports during the third quarter, while exports edged lower. By the fourth quarter, both exports and imports declined, indicating softer momentum toward year-end.

Sectoral Highlights And Product Leadership

According to the Standard International Trade Classification, the five largest product groups accounted for 53.0% of EU exports to the United States. Medicinal and pharmaceutical products led with a 29.0% share, followed by road vehicles (7.5%), general industrial machinery and equipment (5.9%), electrical machinery and parts (5.8%), and power-generating machinery (4.8%).

On the import side, medicinal and pharmaceutical products also ranked first at 17.0%, followed by petroleum and related materials (11.2%), power-generating machinery and equipment (9.4%), natural and manufactured gas (7.9%), and other transport equipment (6.6%).

Foreign Direct Investment And Geopolitical Connectivity

The scale of EU-U.S. trade highlights the strategic importance of the American market for Europe and its broader investment links. Data from the Central Bank of Cyprus show that the United States remained one of Cyprus’ key foreign direct investment partners in 2024, alongside major European economies.

The report notes that while Europe remained Cyprus’ largest FDI partner overall, net FDI stock declined due to a sharper reduction in outward investment, primarily linked to equity instruments and, to a lesser extent, debt instruments.

Special purpose entities continued to influence investment flows, contributing to parallel movements in inward and outward FDI. Despite negative net FDI transactions and income in 2024, inward and outward rates of return improved to 7.8% from 6.7% a year earlier, reinforcing Cyprus’ role as a regional financial services hub.

Cyprus Central Bank Reports Sharp Decline In New Loans For January 2026

Overview Of Lending Trends

The Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) reported a marked downturn in total net new loans for January 2026. The figures reveal a decline of €377.7 million in net new loans compared with the previous month, reflecting broader adjustments in both consumer and housing credit markets.

Detailed Lending Activity

Net new loans in January totaled €247.3 million, based on €495.9 million in total new lending. In December 2025, net new loans reached €625.0 million from €986.9 million in total lending. Changes were recorded across several credit categories. Net new consumer loans increased slightly to €18.9 million from €17.2 million in December. Housing loans declined to €95.7 million from €135.4 million in the previous month.

Interest Rate Movements

Interest rates for both consumer and housing loans declined slightly during the period. Consumer loan rates fell to 7.20% from 7.22%, while housing loan rates decreased to 3.70% from 3.78%. Deposit rates showed limited changes. Household term deposits remained at 1.20%, while deposits from non-financial corporations increased to 1.34% from 1.27%.

Comparative European Context

In comparison with other euro area countries, lending rates in Cyprus are close to the median for outstanding loan balances. Margins for households are around 0%, while margins for non-financial corporations stand at approximately 0.4%. The transmission of monetary policy in Cyprus broadly follows developments in the wider euro area, particularly during periods of monetary tightening or easing. However, the pass-through of rate changes to new loans, especially those issued to non-financial corporations, appears lower than in some other euro area markets.

Shifts In Borrower Behavior And Market Dynamics

The CBC report also highlights changes in borrower preferences regarding interest rate structures. The share of new housing loans with variable interest rates has declined from nearly 100% in early 2022 to 11.6%. Fixed-rate loans have become more common in new housing lending, although many of these products later transition to variable rates.

Banking Liquidity And Deposit Rates

In addition to lending trends, the Central Bank of Cyprus noted that deposit rates in Cyprus remain among the lowest in the euro area. High liquidity levels within the banking system contribute to this trend. Cypriot banks reported a liquidity coverage ratio of 319% in December 2025, compared with a euro area median of 192% and an EU average of 161%. These liquidity levels influence the pricing of deposits in the domestic market. Changes in policy interest rates have also shown limited pass-through to new deposits, reflecting the structure of Cyprus’s relatively small banking sector. The CBC report highlights ongoing developments in both lending and deposit conditions within the country’s banking system as economic conditions and borrowing preferences continue to evolve.

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