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EU Labour Market Slack Overview 2024: Trends, Disparities, And Prospects

by THEFUTURE.TEAM
October 23, 2025

Overview Of Labour Market Dynamics

Recent data from Eurostat indicates that labour market slack in the European Union reached 11.7% of the extended labour force in 2024. This figure represents 26.7 million individuals aged 15 to 74 who are either unemployed, underemployed, or otherwise not fully engaged in the workforce.

Understanding The Composition

The comprehensive measure delineated by Eurostat encompasses not only the unemployed but also includes those who are underemployed, individuals who are actively seeking work despite not being immediately available, and those who are ready for employment but are not currently pursuing job opportunities.

Country-Specific Variations

The data highlights significant differences across the EU. For instance, Cyprus recorded a notably lower slack of 8.8% in 2024, well below the EU average. In contrast, Spain reported the highest level at 19.3%, followed by Finland at 17.9% and Sweden at 17.8%. On the other end of the spectrum, Poland (5.0%), Malta (5.1%), Slovenia (6.3%), and Hungary (6.3%) are among the nations with the least slack.

Dissecting The Data Further

A closer look shows that unemployed individuals constitute the largest segment within the slack, accounting for 5.7% of the labour force. Complementing this are 2.7% of individuals who are available for work but not actively seeking employment, 2.4% representing underemployed part-time workers, and 0.9% for those actively pursuing work yet not immediately available to start.

Divergent National Patterns

Country-specific trends reveal unique patterns. In 23 EU countries, the majority of slack stems from unemployment, with Spain leading at 10.9%, followed by Greece at 9.9% and both Finland and Sweden at 7.9%. Conversely, Ireland and the Netherlands have a larger component of slack due to underemployment among part-time workers, contributing 4.4% and 4.9% respectively. Furthermore, Czechia shows a prominence of workers seeking but not immediately available for employment at 3.1%, while in Italy, the highest proportion arises from those available for work yet not actively seeking employment, standing at 7.3%.

Conclusion

The fluctuating patterns in labour market slack across the EU underline the complex interplay of economic factors influencing employment. As the region continues to address these challenges, differentiated strategies tailored to each nation’s unique labour market landscape will be essential for maximizing workforce potential.

European Central Bank Report Highlights Stable Inflation and Economic Outlook

by THEFUTURE.TEAM
October 29, 2025

Overview Of Inflation Trends

The latest European Central Bank survey shows a slight decline in median inflation expectations over the next 12 months, decreasing from 2.8% in August to 2.7% in September. Despite this minor adjustment, consumer perceptions of past 12-month inflation have held steady at 3.1% for the eighth consecutive month. Long-term projections for three- and five-year inflation remain stable at 2.5% and 2.2% respectively.

Consumer Expectations Drive Income And Spending Projections

Across the board, expectations for nominal income growth over the upcoming year have remained consistent at 1.1%. However, there is a noticeable shift in spending behavior: while perceived nominal spending growth for the past year slipped slightly to 4.9% from 5.0%, expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months rose to 3.5%. Notably, lower income groups continue to forecast marginally higher spending increases compared to their higher income counterparts.

Stability In Economic And Labour Market Outlook

Economic growth expectations are modestly pessimistic, with respondents forecasting a contraction of -1.2% over the next 12 months. Concurrently, anticipated unemployment levels remain unchanged at 10.7% a year ahead, though the outlook varies by income, with lower income households expecting unemployment rates as high as 12.7%, while higher income groups maintain expectations around 9.4%. Overall, the slight difference between current and future unemployment suggests a broadly stable labor market outlook.

Housing Market And Credit Conditions

The survey also reveals an upswing in expectations related to the housing market. Home price growth expectations have edged higher to 3.5%, and anticipated mortgage interest rates have risen modestly to 4.6%. Similar to other metrics, expectations vary by income, with lower income households expecting higher mortgage rates. In recent months, a marginal decline in reported credit tightening over the past 12 months contrasts with a renewed forecast of tighter credit conditions in the forthcoming year.

Conclusion

The ECB’s latest findings underscore the delicate balance between stable long-term economic forecasts and short-term adjustments in consumer expectations. The slight dips in inflation expectations, alongside stable perceptions of past inflation, delineate a marketplace that is both cautious and measured. As income, spending, and housing market metrics continue to evolve, these indicators provide critical insights for policymakers and investors navigating an increasingly complex economic landscape.

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