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EU Demographics Shift: New Data On Foreign-Born And Third-Country Residents As Of January 2025

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

February 18, 2026

Overview Of European Demographic Trends

Recent Eurostat figures show notable changes in the demographic structure of the European Union as of January 1, 2025. Around 46.7 million residents, or 10.4% of the EU’s total population of 450.6 million, were born outside the bloc. This represents an increase of 1.9 million compared with the previous year and reflects the continued evolution of population patterns across Europe.

Foreign-Born Populations: Absolute And Relative Insights

In absolute numbers, foreign-born residents are most concentrated in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, with 17.2 million, 9.6 million, 9.5 million and 6.9 million people respectively. When measured as a share of national populations, Luxembourg ranks highest, with 51.5% of its permanent residents born abroad. Malta follows with 32.0%, Cyprus with 27.6%, Ireland with 23.3%, Austria with 22.5%, Sweden with 20.8% and Germany with 20.5%.

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At the lower end of the scale, Poland reports 2.6%, Romania 3.6%, Bulgaria 3.8% and Slovakia 4.0% of residents born outside the EU. These differences illustrate varying migration flows as well as distinct national approaches to demographic and integration policy.

Third-Country Nationals And Intra-EU Mobility

As of January 1, 2025, approximately 30.6 million third-country nationals were living in the EU, accounting for 6.8% of the total population. This marks an annual increase of 1.6 million. In addition, about 14.1 million residents were citizens of another EU member state, up by 0.1 million year over year.

Germany, Spain, France and Italy host the largest numbers of third-country nationals, with 12.4 million, 6.9 million, 6.5 million and 5.4 million people respectively. Together, these four countries represent 69.7% of all third-country nationals in the EU while accounting for 57.8% of the bloc’s overall population.

Comparative Analysis Of National And Regional Statistics

In proportional terms, Luxembourg again leads, with third-country nationals making up 47.0% of its population. Malta reports 29.4% and Cyprus 24.8%. By contrast, Poland and Slovakia each record 1.2%, Romania 1.6%, Bulgaria 2.3% and Hungary 2.7%.

Looking at EU citizens residing in another member state, Luxembourg also ranks first at 35.8%, followed by Cyprus at 10.1% and Austria at 10.0%. Several countries show minimal intra-EU mobility, including Poland and Lithuania at 0.1%, Latvia at 0.2%, Romania at 0.3%, Bulgaria at 0.5%, Croatia at 0.6%, Slovakia at 0.7% and Hungary at 0.9%. In Estonia and Latvia, figures are influenced by a sizable population of recognized non-citizens, primarily former Soviet Union nationals who reside permanently without obtaining additional citizenship.

Conclusion: Navigating A Changing Demographic Landscape

These demographic developments highlight both opportunities and policy challenges for the European Union. Rising numbers of foreign-born residents and third-country nationals are prompting renewed attention to integration strategies, labor markets and long-term population planning as member states seek to balance economic growth with social stability.

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Middle East Tensions Cast A Long Shadow Over Cyprus Economic Outlook

Improved Current Account Performance Amid Uncertainty

Cyprus recorded an improvement in its current account balance during 2025, with the deficit narrowing to 6.4% of GDP from 9.7% in 2023, according to analysis by Michail Vassileiadis. The improvement was primarily supported by continued expansion in the country’s services surplus, which reached a historic high of 25.2% of GDP compared with 23.5% a year earlier.

Sectoral Strength And Fiscal Dynamics

A moderate reduction in the goods deficit also contributed to the stronger current account position, although the deficit remained elevated at 19.5% of GDP. At the same time, the primary income deficit widened from 10.8% to 11.2% of GDP, reflecting higher outward flows linked to direct investment profits. The secondary income balance improved slightly, moving to a deficit of 0.9% of GDP.

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Robust Contributions From Key Economic Sectors

Strong contributions continued coming from intellectual property, tourism and financial services, which generated surpluses equal to 5.3%, 5.7% and 6.5% of GDP, respectively. Although transport and other business services weakened compared with the previous year, ICT services remained stable at 7.5% of GDP, continuing to support economic growth between 2021 and 2025.

Export-Import Dynamics And Structural Shifts

In value terms, the goods deficit widened by 2.5%, driven by a 1.4% increase in imports alongside a 0.2% decline in exports. Petroleum products accounted for 53.9% of the increase in imports, while pharmaceuticals represented another 16.5%. At the same time, exports of refined petroleum products surged by 298.8%, helping offset the impact of a sharp decline in ship exports.

Risks From Geopolitical Instability And Future Outlook

The analysis noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue posing risks for sectors including tourism and transport. A slowdown in European economic activity or prolonged regional instability could affect tourism revenues and disrupt shipping activity. The report also noted that Cyprus benefited from safe-haven inflows during earlier periods of regional instability, including the Gaza conflict between 2023 and 2025, although prolonged uncertainty could weigh on investment activity and increase market caution.

Conclusion

Cyprus’ recent fiscal improvements, supported by structural reforms and successive sovereign credit rating upgrades, have bolstered investor confidence, enabling a return to A-tier status. Nonetheless, the country faces a delicate balancing act as it navigates rising energy prices and the potential market turbulence induced by external geopolitical pressures. Strategic policy measures and adaptive economic planning will be critical in maintaining this positive momentum against a backdrop of persistent uncertainty.