The European Space Agency is assessing whether to increase the launch tempo of its Ariane 6 and Vega-C rockets as satellite demand is expected to peak around 2030.

ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher said a decision may be needed soon if current forecasts hold. Speaking to reporters at an event organized by the AJPAE aerospace media association, he said Europe could face a launch-capacity shortfall later this decade.

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Launch Demand Could Outpace Capacity

Arianespace’s latest forecast calls for nine or 10 Ariane 6 launches annually from 2027. Europe’s own missions, along with potential additional commercial business from Amazon and other customers, could push demand beyond that capacity, Aschbacher said.

“Of course the question is, can we satisfy all these launches? That’s exactly the assessment we are doing right now,” he said, adding that no final decisions have been made.

ESA is already developing its estimates, but Aschbacher said capacity would need to be expanded soon to meet potential launch requirements in 2030. Amazon has booked 18 launches, adding to demand for European launch services.

ESA Considers European Human Spaceflight

The capacity debate comes as ESA’s 23 member states consider whether Europe could eventually send astronauts into orbit on European rockets rather than relying on U.S. launch vehicles.

Officials have described the initiative as a political decision that could increase ESA’s budget by about 10%, depending on how it is financed. The issue is expected to be discussed at a space summit hosted by France next week.

ESA Signals Role In Satellite Industry Consolidation

Aschbacher also indicated that ESA could use its purchasing power to support competition in Europe’s satellite manufacturing industry as a major merger faces antitrust scrutiny.

Airbus, Thales and Leonardo announced plans last year to combine their satellite manufacturing operations into a new company, code-named Project Bromo. The deal remains subject to regulatory approval.

ESA is not involved in the negotiations, but accounts for about 60% of public-sector satellite spending in Europe. Aschbacher declined to support or oppose the transaction, saying the decision rests with the companies and the European Commission.

ESA could instead use industrial policy tools to protect Europe’s wider space ecosystem, including supply chains, he said. Germany’s OHB, the main domestic European competitor to the proposed group, has warned that the merger could weaken its supply network.

Airbus and its partners argue that competition should be assessed globally rather than only within Europe. They point to the need for European companies to compete with Starlink and other large-scale satellite operators led by Elon Musk.