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ECB Warns Europe Could Suffer In US-China Trade War

The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further interest rate cuts as inflation moderates, but its board member, Piero Cipollone, expressed concern over the potential impact of the ongoing US-China trade tensions on the eurozone. Cipollone noted that while there is room to lower rates further, higher energy prices and global trade uncertainties, including the US-China trade war, complicate the outlook.

The ECB has already cut rates five times since June, with expectations for at least three more rate cuts in 2024 to support economic recovery. However, Cipollone cautioned that committing to a specific timeline, including a likely rate cut in March, remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks.

One significant risk identified by Cipollone is the potential fallout from US tariffs on China, which could force China to redirect its manufacturing and dump discounted goods in Europe. This could hurt European growth and pricing, despite the euro’s likely depreciation against the dollar.

Despite these risks, Cipollone emphasized that a recession is not expected, with strong labor markets, consumption, and construction providing support. The eurozone is not experiencing a boom, but growth is expected to continue, bolstered by ECB rate cuts and signs of stabilization in industrial sectors.

Foreign Firms Contribute €3.5 Billion To Cyprus Economy In 2023

Recent Eurostat data reveals that Cyprus remains an outlier within the European Union, where foreign-controlled companies contribute minimally to the nation’s employment figures and economic output. While these enterprises have a substantial impact in other member states, in Cyprus they account for only 10 percent of all jobs, a figure comparable only to Italy and marginally higher than Greece’s 8 percent.

Employment Impact

The report highlights that foreign-controlled companies in Cyprus employ 32,119 individuals out of a total workforce that, across the EU, reaches 24,145,727. In contrast, countries such as Luxembourg boast a 45 percent job share in foreign-controlled firms, with Slovakia and the Czech Republic following closely at 28 percent.

Economic Output Analysis

In terms of economic contribution, these enterprises generated a total value added of €3.5 billion in Cyprus, a small fraction compared to the overall EU total of €2.39 trillion. Notably, Ireland leads with 71 percent of its value added stemming from foreign-controlled firms, followed by Luxembourg at 61 percent and Slovakia at 50 percent. On the lower end, France, Italy, Greece, and Germany exhibit values below 20 percent.

Domestic Versus Foreign Ownership

The data underscores Cyprus’s heavy reliance on domestically controlled enterprises for both employment and economic output. However, it is important to note that certain businesses might be owned by foreign nationals who have established companies under Cypriot jurisdiction. As a result, these firms are classified as domestically controlled despite having foreign ownership or management components.

Conclusion

This analysis emphasizes the unique role that foreign-controlled enterprises play within the Cypriot economy. While their overall impact is limited compared to some EU counterparts, the presence of these companies continues to contribute significantly to the island’s economic landscape.

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