ECB Wage Tracker Signals Stable Wage Pressures And Moderate Growth Through 2026

The European Central Bank has published an updated wage tracker showing that negotiated wage pressures remain stable. Based on agreements signed through the end of May 2026, negotiated wage growth is expected to reach around 2.6% by December.

Quarterly And Yearly Dynamics

The headline indicator, which smooths one-off payments to reflect quarterly and monthly developments, points to wage growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. For 2026, average growth is estimated at 1.8% in the first quarter and 2.1% in the second quarter before accelerating to 2.6% in the final two quarters of the year.

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Mechanical Effects And Forecast Nuances

According to the ECB, annual growth figures are still influenced by one-off payments made in 2024 but not repeated in 2025. Their impact is expected to gradually fade during 2026. Excluding the smoothing effect, the tracker points to negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. Removing one-off payments altogether results in a decline from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, indicating slower growth in base wages.

Employee Coverage And Forward-Looking Projections

Coverage data currently available for 2026 shows that employees included in the tracker accounted for 46.4% in the first quarter. That share falls to 44.8% in the second quarter, 41.1% in the third quarter, and 40.4% in the final quarter of the year. The current release extends to December 2026. Additional collective agreements included in the July 2026 update are expected to expand the horizon to the first quarter of 2027.

Caveats And Broader Context

The ECB said the tracker is subject to revision and should not be viewed as a formal forecast. Instead, it reflects information available from active collective bargaining agreements. For a broader picture of wage developments across the euro area, the central bank referred to the June 2026 Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections, which forecast compensation growth per employee of 3.2% in 2026.

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Cyprus Expects More French Visitors In 2027 As Air Capacity Expands

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

September 18, 2026

Cyprus expects more French visitors in 2027 as airlines increase capacity between the two countries, Tourism Deputy Minister Kostas Koumis said after meetings with tour operators in Paris.

France, one of Cyprus’ key tourism markets, has had a difficult 2026. French arrivals fell 46% year over year to 8,453 in August, from 15,663 a year earlier, according to the Statistical Service of Cyprus (Cystat). August arrivals were also nearly 50% below the 16,798 recorded in the same month of 2024.

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Overall, Cyprus received 2.82 million tourist arrivals between January and August, down 7% from the same period in 2025.

Air Connectivity Supports 2027 Outlook

Koumis discussed the 2027 outlook with senior executives from tour operators offering Cyprus holidays during the IFTM Top Resa travel trade fair in Paris.

Higher air capacity between France and Cyprus was a key focus of the talks. Participants also discussed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on the French market and Cyprus’ efforts to adapt its tourism offering to French travelers.

“The French market is undoubtedly an extremely important market for our country’s tourism,” Koumis said, adding that France had regained importance only a few years ago and still had room to grow.

Improved air connectivity will be an important factor in that expansion, according to Koumis. “It is now clear that air connectivity between France and Cyprus is improving significantly, which is a basic prerequisite for the further growth of the market,” he said.

Cyprus Promotes Tourism And Regional Cooperation

Koumis attended the opening of IFTM Top Resa at the invitation of French Tourism Minister Serge Papin, who later visited the Cyprus stand. Held from Sept. 15 to 17 at Paris Porte de Versailles, the event brought together more than 32,000 tourism professionals representing 177 destinations and 1,650 brands, according to organizers.

During his visit, Koumis also met Egyptian Tourism Minister Sherif Fathy. Cyprus and Egypt reaffirmed their tourism cooperation and discussed opportunities to strengthen ties further.

French media interviews covered Cyprus’ tourism offering, infrastructure and services, along with efforts to develop specialized tourism products. Regional instability weighed on arrivals in 2026, particularly during the spring, although the decline narrowed over the summer.

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