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ECB Wage Tracker Signals Stable Wage Pressures And Moderate Growth Through 2026

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

The European Central Bank has published an updated wage tracker showing that negotiated wage pressures remain stable. Based on agreements signed through the end of May 2026, negotiated wage growth is expected to reach around 2.6% by December.

Quarterly And Yearly Dynamics

The headline indicator, which smooths one-off payments to reflect quarterly and monthly developments, points to wage growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. For 2026, average growth is estimated at 1.8% in the first quarter and 2.1% in the second quarter before accelerating to 2.6% in the final two quarters of the year.

Mechanical Effects And Forecast Nuances

According to the ECB, annual growth figures are still influenced by one-off payments made in 2024 but not repeated in 2025. Their impact is expected to gradually fade during 2026. Excluding the smoothing effect, the tracker points to negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. Removing one-off payments altogether results in a decline from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, indicating slower growth in base wages.

Employee Coverage And Forward-Looking Projections

Coverage data currently available for 2026 shows that employees included in the tracker accounted for 46.4% in the first quarter. That share falls to 44.8% in the second quarter, 41.1% in the third quarter, and 40.4% in the final quarter of the year. The current release extends to December 2026. Additional collective agreements included in the July 2026 update are expected to expand the horizon to the first quarter of 2027.

Caveats And Broader Context

The ECB said the tracker is subject to revision and should not be viewed as a formal forecast. Instead, it reflects information available from active collective bargaining agreements. For a broader picture of wage developments across the euro area, the central bank referred to the June 2026 Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections, which forecast compensation growth per employee of 3.2% in 2026.

A New Twitter-Inspired Social Network Is Taking Shape

by News Editor

A new social network called Twitter.now is entering the market, with a founding team that includes former Twitter trademark counsel Stephen Coates. The service is being developed by startup Operation Bluebird.

As Ars Technica reported, X sued the company last year and asked a Delaware judge to block the launch. Operation Bluebird argued in a petition that X had abandoned trademarks including “Twitter” and “Tweet.”

Coates has said the project is not an attempt to recreate the original Twitter. In a LinkedIn post, he described the platform as a new public space focused on trust, transparency and user choice.

AI System To Rate Posts

Twitter.now is currently being tested, with early access priced at $20. Its main feature is VERA, an AI system designed to evaluate posts, verify claims and provide sources and context.

Posts receive a trust score, with users eventually able to set a minimum score to filter their feeds. The company says this approach will give people more control over what they see instead of leaving those decisions entirely to an algorithm.

Moderation Remains A Challenge

Scaling moderation will be one of the platform’s biggest tests. Social networks have repeatedly struggled with content moderation as their communities grow, and newer platforms such as Bluesky have faced similar criticism.

Operation Bluebird says VERA will form the basis of its moderation and verification system. A second version is already planned, with expanded tools that would let users set a specific trust threshold for the posts appearing in their feeds.

For now, Twitter.now remains in an early testing phase, combining the familiarity of the Twitter name with an AI-driven approach to evaluating online information.

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