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ECB Wage Tracker Signals Stable Wage Pressures And Moderate Growth Through 2026

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

The European Central Bank has published an updated wage tracker showing that negotiated wage pressures remain stable. Based on agreements signed through the end of May 2026, negotiated wage growth is expected to reach around 2.6% by December.

Quarterly And Yearly Dynamics

The headline indicator, which smooths one-off payments to reflect quarterly and monthly developments, points to wage growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. For 2026, average growth is estimated at 1.8% in the first quarter and 2.1% in the second quarter before accelerating to 2.6% in the final two quarters of the year.

Mechanical Effects And Forecast Nuances

According to the ECB, annual growth figures are still influenced by one-off payments made in 2024 but not repeated in 2025. Their impact is expected to gradually fade during 2026. Excluding the smoothing effect, the tracker points to negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. Removing one-off payments altogether results in a decline from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, indicating slower growth in base wages.

Employee Coverage And Forward-Looking Projections

Coverage data currently available for 2026 shows that employees included in the tracker accounted for 46.4% in the first quarter. That share falls to 44.8% in the second quarter, 41.1% in the third quarter, and 40.4% in the final quarter of the year. The current release extends to December 2026. Additional collective agreements included in the July 2026 update are expected to expand the horizon to the first quarter of 2027.

Caveats And Broader Context

The ECB said the tracker is subject to revision and should not be viewed as a formal forecast. Instead, it reflects information available from active collective bargaining agreements. For a broader picture of wage developments across the euro area, the central bank referred to the June 2026 Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections, which forecast compensation growth per employee of 3.2% in 2026.

Mirendil Signs $100 Million Google Cloud Deal To Advance Self-Improving AI

by News Editor

AI startup Mirendil has signed a multi-year agreement worth more than $100 million with Google Cloud to secure computing infrastructure for its self-improving AI research.

The partnership reflects growing competition among AI companies to lock in access to high-performance computing, while cloud providers race to attract promising startups developing next-generation AI models.

Backing The Next Stage Of AI Research

Mirendil plans to use Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), Nvidia GPUs and managed training infrastructure to develop AI systems capable of improving their own performance over time.

Known as recursive self-improvement, the concept focuses on building AI that can refine its knowledge and capabilities with minimal human intervention. The technology is attracting growing interest across the industry, with several startups and leading AI labs exploring similar approaches.

According to co-founder and Chief Executive Behnam Neyshabur, the long-term goal is to develop AI that can automate scientific research and accelerate discoveries in fields such as medicine, biology and materials science.

Compute Capacity Becomes A Strategic Asset

Training increasingly advanced AI models requires enormous computing resources, making long-term infrastructure agreements a critical competitive advantage.

Mirendil said Google’s combination of TPUs and GPUs allows workloads to be matched with the most suitable hardware, improving efficiency while reducing costs for customers.

For Google Cloud, the agreement strengthens its position in the race to provide infrastructure for frontier AI developers, while giving the company exposure to one of the industry’s emerging approaches to next-generation artificial intelligence.

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