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ECB Wage Tracker Forecasts Slower Growth While Cyprus Data Highlights Persistent Inequality

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

November 7, 2025

The European Central Bank’s latest wage tracker data, updated through September, signals a notable slowdown in negotiated wage growth moving into 2025. The tracker, rooted in active collective bargaining agreements, recorded a rise of 4.7% in 2024 with smoothed one-off payments. Projections for 2025 indicate a deceleration to 3.2%, based on a slightly reduced employee coverage of 48.7%, compared to 50.6% in the previous year.

Analyzing The Variations

Diverse methodological approaches yield varied outcomes. A version that includes unsmoothed one-off payments suggests a 4.9% growth in 2024 dropping to 3.0% in 2025. Meanwhile, a tracker that excludes one-off payments shows more resilient growth, from 4.2% in 2024 rising to 3.9% in 2025. The ECB attributes these trends, in part, to the mechanical effects of substantial one-off payments in 2024 and the advancement of wage increases in certain sectors during that period.

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Forward-Looking Data For 2026

Recent forward-looking figures for the third quarter of 2026 present a mixed picture. The headline wage tracker, with smoothed one-off payments, recorded 2.2%, up from 1.8% in the early half of the year. Conversely, the unsmoothed figure slipped from 2.5% to 2.2%, while the tracker excluding one-off payments declined slightly to 2.4% from 2.6%. Notably, employee coverage fell to 19.4% in Q3 2026, a marked decrease from 31.0% in H1 2026 and 47.2% in Q4 2025, underscoring shifts in the dataset’s representativeness.

Cyprus Wages: Growth Amid Inequality

Provisional data from the Cyprus Statistical Service illustrates a continued upward trend in wages. In the second quarter of 2025, average gross monthly earnings reached €2,476—a 4.2% increase from the previous year—following a 2024 average of €2,483. Despite this overall growth, wage inequality remains a pressing issue. The median wage for 2024 was only €1,881, significantly lower than the average, highlighting persistent disparities.

Persistent Gender And Incomes Disparities

The gender pay gap is a continuing challenge. In Q2 2025, males earned an average of €2,656 while females earned €2,251. However, a higher year-on-year increase for women (4.7% compared to 3.8% for men) may signal a gradual narrowing of the gap. In terms of income distribution, 40% of employees earned between €1,500 and €2,999, with 36.1% earning less than €1,500. Only 5.1% of workers reached the €6,000 or more bracket.

Sectoral Insights And National Disparities

Further analysis by Cystat reveals that non-Cypriot nationals are overrepresented in both the lowest and highest wage brackets—48.7% earn less than €1,500 and 7.7% earn €6,000 or more—reflecting a bimodal distribution in job roles. Sectoral performance shows the Information and Communication industry leading salary growth with an 8.1% increase in 2024, while financial and insurance activities enjoyed the highest average earnings at €4,710.

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Cyprus Records EU’s Largest Quarterly Drop In Public Debt Ratio

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 21, 2026

Cyprus recorded the European Union’s largest quarterly decline in government debt as a share of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, as its debt burden continued to fall while borrowing levels across the bloc increased, according to Eurostat.

Debt Ratio Falls To 48.5%

Cyprus’ government debt fell to 48.5% of GDP at the end of June, down from 51.5% in the first quarter and 58.1% a year earlier.

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In absolute terms, debt declined to €19.2 billion from €20.03 billion at the end of March and €21.7 billion in June 2025. Cyprus also recorded the EU’s second-largest annual reduction in its debt-to-GDP ratio, after Greece.

Cyprus Outpaces Other EU Member States

Greece recorded the largest annual decline, at 11.2 percentage points, followed by Cyprus at 9.5 points, Slovenia at 4.5 points and Portugal at 3.4 points.

Quarterly, Cyprus led the bloc, ahead of Greece, where the ratio fell by 2.7 percentage points, and Hungary, which recorded a 2-point decline.

By contrast, the EU’s debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 82.9% in the second quarter from 82.5% in the first. The euro area ratio rose to 88.8% from 88.4%. Compared with the same period in 2025, the figures increased from 81.4% and 87.3%, respectively.

Debt Levels Remain High Across Europe

Greece had the EU’s highest debt ratio at the end of June, at 140.8% of GDP, followed by Italy at 139.9%, France at 119.1%, Belgium at 110.2% and Spain at 101.4%.

The lowest ratios were recorded in Estonia at 26.1%, Denmark at 27.1%, Luxembourg at 28.2% and Bulgaria at 28.7%.

Compared with the first quarter, debt ratios rose in 15 member states and fell in 10, while the Netherlands and Spain remained unchanged. Poland recorded the largest quarterly increase, at 3 percentage points.

Cyprus Maintains A Government Surplus

Cyprus’ debt reduction comes alongside a strong fiscal position. In 2025, the country recorded a government surplus of 3.6% of GDP, the highest in the EU, according to audited figures published by Cystat and Eurostat. Government debt at the end of that year stood at €20.05 billion, or 52.3% of GDP.

However, Cyprus’ seasonally adjusted government surplus narrowed to 3.3% of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, from 3.8% in the first quarter.

The figures come from Eurostat’s latest government deficit and debt release, based on member states’ second 2026 notifications under the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure and compiled under the European System of Accounts 2010 methodology.