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ECB Wage Tracker Forecasts Slower Growth While Cyprus Data Highlights Persistent Inequality

The European Central Bank’s latest wage tracker data, updated through September, signals a notable slowdown in negotiated wage growth moving into 2025. The tracker, rooted in active collective bargaining agreements, recorded a rise of 4.7% in 2024 with smoothed one-off payments. Projections for 2025 indicate a deceleration to 3.2%, based on a slightly reduced employee coverage of 48.7%, compared to 50.6% in the previous year.

Analyzing The Variations

Diverse methodological approaches yield varied outcomes. A version that includes unsmoothed one-off payments suggests a 4.9% growth in 2024 dropping to 3.0% in 2025. Meanwhile, a tracker that excludes one-off payments shows more resilient growth, from 4.2% in 2024 rising to 3.9% in 2025. The ECB attributes these trends, in part, to the mechanical effects of substantial one-off payments in 2024 and the advancement of wage increases in certain sectors during that period.

Forward-Looking Data For 2026

Recent forward-looking figures for the third quarter of 2026 present a mixed picture. The headline wage tracker, with smoothed one-off payments, recorded 2.2%, up from 1.8% in the early half of the year. Conversely, the unsmoothed figure slipped from 2.5% to 2.2%, while the tracker excluding one-off payments declined slightly to 2.4% from 2.6%. Notably, employee coverage fell to 19.4% in Q3 2026, a marked decrease from 31.0% in H1 2026 and 47.2% in Q4 2025, underscoring shifts in the dataset’s representativeness.

Cyprus Wages: Growth Amid Inequality

Provisional data from the Cyprus Statistical Service illustrates a continued upward trend in wages. In the second quarter of 2025, average gross monthly earnings reached €2,476—a 4.2% increase from the previous year—following a 2024 average of €2,483. Despite this overall growth, wage inequality remains a pressing issue. The median wage for 2024 was only €1,881, significantly lower than the average, highlighting persistent disparities.

Persistent Gender And Incomes Disparities

The gender pay gap is a continuing challenge. In Q2 2025, males earned an average of €2,656 while females earned €2,251. However, a higher year-on-year increase for women (4.7% compared to 3.8% for men) may signal a gradual narrowing of the gap. In terms of income distribution, 40% of employees earned between €1,500 and €2,999, with 36.1% earning less than €1,500. Only 5.1% of workers reached the €6,000 or more bracket.

Sectoral Insights And National Disparities

Further analysis by Cystat reveals that non-Cypriot nationals are overrepresented in both the lowest and highest wage brackets—48.7% earn less than €1,500 and 7.7% earn €6,000 or more—reflecting a bimodal distribution in job roles. Sectoral performance shows the Information and Communication industry leading salary growth with an 8.1% increase in 2024, while financial and insurance activities enjoyed the highest average earnings at €4,710.

Mercedes-Benz Posts Higher Profit Despite China Slowdown

Mercedes-Benz reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results, lifting its shares on Tuesday despite mounting pressure from Chinese automakers and a weaker outlook for sales and revenue.

The earnings provided a boost for Europe’s auto sector, where manufacturers continue to grapple with tariffs, softer demand and intensifying competition from Chinese rivals. Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have all accelerated restructuring efforts in response.

Cost Discipline Lifts Quarterly Profit

Mercedes-Benz shares rose as much as 5.9% following the results before trimming gains to trade 3.5% higher by 1118 GMT. The company reaffirmed its profit margin guidance for its core passenger car business after reporting an adjusted return on sales of 4.0% for the second quarter, above market expectations and within its 3% to 5% target range.

“In an environment where some automakers are ringing alarm bells on their competitive positioning, Mercedes delivered a clear and confident message,” Morningstar analyst Rella Suskin said.

Second-quarter operating profit increased 22% to €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion), despite a 3% decline in revenue. Lower administrative and research and development costs, together with strong performances from the financial services and vans divisions, supported earnings, while the results also included a €131 million gain related to the planned sale of leasing subsidiary Athlon.

China Remains The Key Pressure Point

Despite stronger profitability, Mercedes continues to face a challenging market environment. Sales in China fell 30% during the second quarter, prompting the company to abandon earlier expectations for stable car sales and group revenue. It now expects both to decline slightly from a year earlier.

BMW also lowered its outlook in June following a deeper-than-expected slowdown in China, highlighting the pressure facing Germany’s premium carmakers. At the same time, Mercedes said Chinese manufacturers are increasingly expanding into European markets, although Chief Executive Ola Kaellenius said their focus remains on higher-volume segments rather than the premium market.

“But that is not a reason to sit back and be relaxed,” he said.

Manufacturing Shift Continues

Mercedes is also reshaping its manufacturing footprint. The company said its German factories will undergo a more aggressive push toward leaner production, although it declined to provide further details while talks with labour representatives continue. Production is also being expanded in lower-cost Eastern European locations, including Hungary, where the company is increasing capacity at its Kecskemet plant, as well as in Poland.

Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm said the full-year margin for the passenger car division is expected to come in at the lower end of the company’s guidance range, reflecting a higher share of electric vehicle sales in Europe, which remain more expensive to produce and continue to weigh on profitability.

“We must continue to work flat out to reduce costs so that we can remain competitive on the prices of our products,” Kaellenius said.

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