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ECB Wage Tracker Forecasts Slower Growth While Cyprus Data Highlights Persistent Inequality

The European Central Bank’s latest wage tracker data, updated through September, signals a notable slowdown in negotiated wage growth moving into 2025. The tracker, rooted in active collective bargaining agreements, recorded a rise of 4.7% in 2024 with smoothed one-off payments. Projections for 2025 indicate a deceleration to 3.2%, based on a slightly reduced employee coverage of 48.7%, compared to 50.6% in the previous year.

Analyzing The Variations

Diverse methodological approaches yield varied outcomes. A version that includes unsmoothed one-off payments suggests a 4.9% growth in 2024 dropping to 3.0% in 2025. Meanwhile, a tracker that excludes one-off payments shows more resilient growth, from 4.2% in 2024 rising to 3.9% in 2025. The ECB attributes these trends, in part, to the mechanical effects of substantial one-off payments in 2024 and the advancement of wage increases in certain sectors during that period.

Forward-Looking Data For 2026

Recent forward-looking figures for the third quarter of 2026 present a mixed picture. The headline wage tracker, with smoothed one-off payments, recorded 2.2%, up from 1.8% in the early half of the year. Conversely, the unsmoothed figure slipped from 2.5% to 2.2%, while the tracker excluding one-off payments declined slightly to 2.4% from 2.6%. Notably, employee coverage fell to 19.4% in Q3 2026, a marked decrease from 31.0% in H1 2026 and 47.2% in Q4 2025, underscoring shifts in the dataset’s representativeness.

Cyprus Wages: Growth Amid Inequality

Provisional data from the Cyprus Statistical Service illustrates a continued upward trend in wages. In the second quarter of 2025, average gross monthly earnings reached €2,476—a 4.2% increase from the previous year—following a 2024 average of €2,483. Despite this overall growth, wage inequality remains a pressing issue. The median wage for 2024 was only €1,881, significantly lower than the average, highlighting persistent disparities.

Persistent Gender And Incomes Disparities

The gender pay gap is a continuing challenge. In Q2 2025, males earned an average of €2,656 while females earned €2,251. However, a higher year-on-year increase for women (4.7% compared to 3.8% for men) may signal a gradual narrowing of the gap. In terms of income distribution, 40% of employees earned between €1,500 and €2,999, with 36.1% earning less than €1,500. Only 5.1% of workers reached the €6,000 or more bracket.

Sectoral Insights And National Disparities

Further analysis by Cystat reveals that non-Cypriot nationals are overrepresented in both the lowest and highest wage brackets—48.7% earn less than €1,500 and 7.7% earn €6,000 or more—reflecting a bimodal distribution in job roles. Sectoral performance shows the Information and Communication industry leading salary growth with an 8.1% increase in 2024, while financial and insurance activities enjoyed the highest average earnings at €4,710.

Meta’s Muse Is Outpacing ChatGPT In Early Mobile Adoption, New Data Suggests

Meta’s new AI app, Muse, may be emerging as one of the company’s strongest consumer launches to date. Fresh estimates from market intelligence firm Apptopia suggest the app has outperformed ChatGPT in early mobile traction, at least in the U.S. and Canada.

According to Apptopia, Muse recorded more downloads in its first 12 days on the market than ChatGPT did during the comparable period after its mobile debut. The comparison, limited to the U.S. and Canada, puts Muse’s iOS downloads at 1.8 million versus 1.3 million for ChatGPT over the same initial window.

A Strong Early Start Across Platforms

In total, Muse has reached 2.8 million global installs in its first 12 days, according to the firm. The app’s momentum also appears to be holding. After debuting at No. 2 on the U.S. App Store, Muse has since climbed to No. 1, surpassing ChatGPT, according to reporting from Business Insider. Appfigures had previously estimated that Muse crossed 1 million downloads shortly after launch.

That early rise matters because app-store performance in the first days after launch often signals whether a product can sustain consumer attention beyond initial curiosity. In Meta’s case, the data suggests Muse is not simply benefiting from novelty; it is gaining ground quickly enough to challenge the category leader.

Daily Users Show Similar Momentum

Apptopia’s estimates point to another favorable comparison for Meta: daily usage. In the U.S. alone, Muse is said to have 642,000 daily active users, well above the 231,000 ChatGPT had at the same stage of its mobile rollout.

To make the comparison fairer, Apptopia also narrowed the analysis to iOS only, since ChatGPT launched on iPhone before expanding more broadly. Even under that tighter lens, Muse still comes out ahead, with 359,000 daily active users on iOS compared with ChatGPT’s earlier figure.

Why Meta Has An Advantage

Third-party estimates are not the same as internal company data, and Apptopia cannot see Meta’s proprietary numbers. Still, even directional data suggests Muse may be on track to become a meaningful consumer product for Meta.

That possibility is strengthened by Meta’s distribution advantage. The company has already demonstrated how powerful its ecosystem can be with Threads, which surpassed 500 million users after heavy promotion across Instagram and Facebook. Muse is likely to receive a similar boost, especially because it can connect across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

Apptopia does not track Meta’s internal promotion strategy, but its data indicates that more than 95% of Muse users are also Facebook users, while 63% are Instagram users. That overlap underscores how effectively Meta can move users across its products when it chooses to prioritize a launch.

The Strategic Test For Meta

For Meta, the early signal from Muse is less about one app’s download count than about whether the company can turn its scale into durable AI adoption. The first test is attention. The harder one is retention.

If Muse can convert early downloads into habitual use, Meta may have found a new front door into its AI ambitions. If not, the app risks becoming another example of how easily mobile hype can spike before settling back down.

Meta, which was asked for comment, has not yet released public figures on Muse’s early adoption.

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