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ECB Survey Shows Eurozone Inflation Expectations Ease In May

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

June 29, 2026

Inflation Expectations Retreat In May

Consumers across the euro area lowered their short-term inflation expectations in May, according to the European Central Bank’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey.

Expected inflation over the next 12 months fell to 3.5% from 4.0% in April, while perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 4.0%.

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Long-Term Outlook Holds Steady

Longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged. Consumers continued to expect inflation of 2.9% three years ahead and 2.4% over a five-year horizon.

The ECB also reported a decline in uncertainty about inflation over the coming year, although it remained above levels recorded before the conflict in the Middle East.

Income Gaps Continue To Shape Sentiment

The survey showed notable differences across income groups. Lower-income households reported higher perceptions of past inflation and higher expectations for future inflation than higher-income respondents.

Age differences were also evident. Consumers aged 18 to 34 reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than those aged between 35 and 70.

Household Finances Show Mixed Signals

Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.0% from 0.8% in April. At the same time, expected spending growth eased to 3.8% from 4.3%, while expectations for economic growth improved to -1.7% from -2.2%. Although households continued to expect the economy to contract, the latest reading indicates a less negative outlook than a month earlier.

Labour Market Views Remain Broadly Stable

Consumers expected the unemployment rate 12 months ahead to reach 11.3%, up slightly from 11.2% in April. Expectations differed across income groups, with lower-income households forecasting unemployment of 13.7%, compared with 9.5% among higher-income respondents.

The expected unemployment rate remained only slightly above the perceived current rate of 10.7%.

Housing And Credit Conditions Stay Tight

Consumers expect house prices to increase by 3.6% over the next year, compared with 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9% for the third consecutive month.

Lower-income households continued to expect higher mortgage rates than higher-income households, at 5.6% and 4.4% respectively.

The survey also showed that the net share of households reporting tighter access to credit over the previous 12 months reached its highest level since February 2024. At the same time, fewer respondents expected credit conditions to tighten further over the coming year.

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Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 23, 2026

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

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A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.