ECB Expected To Raise Rates On Sept. 10 As Tightening Cycle Nears End

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

September 7, 2026

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates on Sept. 10, marking what economists see as the second and final increase in its shortest tightening cycle in 15 years, according to a Reuters poll.

Inflation Pressure Persists, But The Case For More Tightening Is Limited

A Reuters survey conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3 found that most economists do not expect higher energy prices to create broader inflationary pressure, despite the renewed escalation of the war in the Middle East. That view has tempered expectations for a more aggressive policy response.

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ECB watchers also expect policymakers to avoid adding pressure to an already fragile eurozone economy, even as global bond yields have risen sharply in recent days.

Energy Costs Lift Inflation, But Not The Outlook For A Third Hike

Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, moving further above the ECB’s 2% target. Energy costs were the main driver, strengthening the case for another rate increase, but most economists said the latest data did not warrant a third hike.

That assessment differs from interest-rate futures markets, which are pricing in another increase.

Strong Consensus Points To A Quarter-Point Increase

All 65 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. That represents a stronger consensus than in the August poll, when 83% expected a September increase, and ahead of the July meeting, when 72% predicted a move.

The ECB left rates unchanged in July, while its most recent increase came in June.

Markets See A Pause After September

Around 91% of economists expect the deposit rate to end the year at 2.50%, while 78% believe it will remain there through the middle of next year.

Those expectations have held despite the more difficult geopolitical backdrop and sharply higher borrowing costs across global bond markets. Most economists appear to view the recent inflation increase as largely energy-driven and therefore unlikely to develop into persistent, broad-based price pressure requiring prolonged monetary restraint.

If the ECB raises rates as expected in September, most economists surveyed by Reuters believe the move will mark the end of the central bank’s latest tightening cycle.

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Europe’s Deadly Summer Heat Exposed The Cost Of A Warming Continent

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 23, 2026

Europe experienced its deadliest summer for heat-related deaths on record in 2026, with an estimated 24,400 excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures across 30 countries. Researchers estimate that human-induced climate change was responsible for around 32,000 of the deaths attributed to heat in the study’s broader analysis, accounting for 65% of the total.

The findings highlight the growing public-health consequences of global warming, largely driven by fossil fuel use, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe.

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A Summer Of Dangerous Heat

Between June and August, heatwaves pushed temperatures in Western Europe to an average of 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, with some days reaching 12°C above average. Nearly a third of estimated heat-related deaths occurred during a particularly intense heatwave between 17 June and 1 July.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” said Dr Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

The estimated toll exceeded previous peaks of around 29,000 deaths in summer 2022 and 28,000 in 2003 across the region studied.

How Researchers Estimated The Toll

Researchers modelled the relationship between temperature and mortality across 854 urban areas in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland, covering around 40% of the population in the 30 countries studied.

The analysis incorporated temperature records, age, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors and access to healthcare. By comparing actual temperatures with those expected without human-induced warming, the team estimated the additional deaths attributable to climate change.

Final official mortality figures for summer 2026 are not yet available in many countries, and heat-related deaths are often underreported because their effects can be difficult to identify directly.

Older People Face The Greatest Risk

People aged 85 and over accounted for roughly half of the estimated deaths. However, the impact extended across age groups, with around 800 excess deaths among adults aged 20–44 and approximately 6,000 among people under 65.

Southern Europe experienced the highest mortality burden, reflecting hotter temperatures and other vulnerabilities, including air pollution, limited green space and unequal access to healthcare and heat-alert systems.

Italy, France And Spain Record Highest Toll

Italy recorded an estimated 13,303 heat-related excess deaths, followed by France with 7,268 and Spain with 6,824. Germany recorded around 6,340, while the UK saw an estimated 4,354 deaths.

In the UK, the heat also placed significant pressure on healthcare services. Andrew Hartle, Professor of Practice of Anaesthesia at Imperial College Healthcare, said demand during the summer resembled that of a severe winter virus season.

Cities Urged To Strengthen Heat Protection

Researchers say cities can reduce the risks through climate shelters, external shading and building retrofits, alongside measures to help residents avoid exposure during the hottest hours. Checking on vulnerable people, staying hydrated and following heat alerts are also important.

The researchers stress that adaptation must go hand in hand with reducing fossil fuel use to limit further warming. The findings underline that extreme heat is already a major public-health threat across Europe, with thousands of lives at risk each summer.

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