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ECB Expected To Raise Rates On Sept. 10 As Tightening Cycle Nears End

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

September 7, 2026

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates on Sept. 10, marking what economists see as the second and final increase in its shortest tightening cycle in 15 years, according to a Reuters poll.

Inflation Pressure Persists, But The Case For More Tightening Is Limited

A Reuters survey conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3 found that most economists do not expect higher energy prices to create broader inflationary pressure, despite the renewed escalation of the war in the Middle East. That view has tempered expectations for a more aggressive policy response.

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ECB watchers also expect policymakers to avoid adding pressure to an already fragile eurozone economy, even as global bond yields have risen sharply in recent days.

Energy Costs Lift Inflation, But Not The Outlook For A Third Hike

Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, moving further above the ECB’s 2% target. Energy costs were the main driver, strengthening the case for another rate increase, but most economists said the latest data did not warrant a third hike.

That assessment differs from interest-rate futures markets, which are pricing in another increase.

Strong Consensus Points To A Quarter-Point Increase

All 65 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. That represents a stronger consensus than in the August poll, when 83% expected a September increase, and ahead of the July meeting, when 72% predicted a move.

The ECB left rates unchanged in July, while its most recent increase came in June.

Markets See A Pause After September

Around 91% of economists expect the deposit rate to end the year at 2.50%, while 78% believe it will remain there through the middle of next year.

Those expectations have held despite the more difficult geopolitical backdrop and sharply higher borrowing costs across global bond markets. Most economists appear to view the recent inflation increase as largely energy-driven and therefore unlikely to develop into persistent, broad-based price pressure requiring prolonged monetary restraint.

If the ECB raises rates as expected in September, most economists surveyed by Reuters believe the move will mark the end of the central bank’s latest tightening cycle.

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LVMH Revenue Rises, But China Weakness Continues To Weigh On Luxury Giant

by THEFUTURE.TEAM

October 13, 2026

A Softer Quarter Exposes The Limits Of Luxury’s Recovery

LVMH, the world’s largest luxury group and parent of Louis Vuitton, Dior, Celine and Hennessy, reported revenue of €18.5 billion in the three months to the end of September, underscoring both the scale of its business and the pressure building across parts of the luxury market.

The company’s revenue rose 1.2% year on year in the third quarter, following a 0.1% increase in the second quarter and a 5.9% decline in the first. The trajectory points to stabilization, but not yet to a convincing rebound.

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Organic Growth Misses Expectations

Organic sales growth, which strips out currency effects and portfolio changes, slowed to 1% in the third quarter from 3% in the previous quarter. That result fell short of market expectations and reinforced concerns that the luxury cycle remains uneven.

For the first nine months of the year, LVMH generated sales of €57.1 billion, with organic growth of 2%.

In its statement, the company highlighted the breadth of its portfolio, saying that diversification continues to provide resilience in an uncertain geopolitical and economic environment. That remains one of LVMH’s defining strengths: when one category weakens, another can help offset the downturn.

China Remains The Key Pressure Point

LVMH said sales performed well in the United States, Europe and Japan, but conditions in China remained less favorable. That matters because the country has long been one of the most important growth engines for global luxury brands.

The fashion and leather goods division, LVMH’s most closely watched unit, saw organic sales fall 5% as weaker demand in China weighed on performance. Deutsche Bank said the decline was steeper than the roughly 2% drop expected by analysts.

The segment had delivered its first organic sales gain in two years in the previous quarter, making the latest retreat a notable setback.

Brand Equity Faces A Test In China

The quarter also highlighted the reputational risks facing global brands in China. Louis Vuitton drew criticism after suing local tea company Molly Tea over logo copying. Although the company won the case, the dispute sparked social media backlash and boycott calls, adding another layer of pressure to an already fragile environment.

For a company built on scarcity, aspiration and brand discipline, perception is an asset as valuable as inventory. In a market as digitally connected as China, that asset can shift quickly.

Mixed Performance Across The Portfolio

Not every division weakened. LVMH’s selective retailing business, which includes Sephora, posted an 8% organic sales increase. Watches and jewellery, along with wines and spirits, both recorded 6% organic gains.

That broad mix is precisely what has historically given LVMH an advantage over rivals: it can absorb softness in one category without relying on a single growth driver.

Analysts See A Longer Recovery Ahead

Deutsche Bank analysts said the results could lead to further cuts in earnings forecasts for the second half of 2026 and 2027. They added that it is difficult to see what could improve investor sentiment in the near term.

Still, the bank framed the weakness as cyclical rather than structural. In its view, recovery is taking longer because Chinese demand remains subdued, but the problem does not appear to reflect a permanent deterioration in the brand franchise. Analysts said ongoing brand initiatives are beginning to show results, though improvements are likely to remain gradual.

Investor Pressure Continues To Mount

LVMH’s share price has fallen nearly 40% since the start of the year. In September, L’Oréal overtook the group as France’s most valuable listed company, a symbolic shift that captures how sharply sentiment has changed.

Shares in LVMH were down more than 1.6% in Paris around 10 a.m. CEST following the release.