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EBA Sounds Alarm On Geopolitical Risks Facing European Banks

The European Banking Authority (EBA) has raised significant concerns regarding the heightened geopolitical risks currently affecting European banks. In its latest Risk Assessment Report, the EBA underscores the myriad of challenges banks are grappling with, including uncertain economic growth prospects, volatile interest rates, and an increase in geopolitical tensions. These factors are contributing to a complex and unstable financial environment.

A key concern highlighted in the report is the rise in non-performing loans (NPLs). Despite this, many banks are planning to expand their lending exposures and increase their long-term market-based financing. This approach signals a strategic move to maintain competitiveness and market share, even amidst growing financial uncertainties. However, this strategy is not without its risks, as increased lending can exacerbate the issue of NPLs if economic conditions deteriorate further.

Moreover, the EBA has identified a surge in cyber risks and operational threats. As digital transformation accelerates within the banking sector, vulnerabilities to cyber-attacks and operational disruptions have become more pronounced. The EBA’s report calls for enhanced cybersecurity measures and robust operational risk management frameworks to mitigate these threats.

The geopolitical landscape, marked by ongoing conflicts and trade tensions, adds another layer of complexity to the banking sector’s risk profile. These geopolitical risks have far-reaching implications, potentially affecting everything from cross-border transactions to regulatory environments.

In response to these multifaceted risks, the EBA recommends that banks adopt a more vigilant and strategic approach. This includes strengthening their risk management practices, enhancing their cybersecurity infrastructure, and being more cautious in their lending practices. By doing so, banks can better navigate the uncertainties and safeguard their financial stability.

The EBA’s report serves as a critical reminder for banks to remain agile and responsive to the rapidly changing risk landscape. As geopolitical and economic uncertainties continue to evolve, the ability of banks to adapt and implement robust risk mitigation strategies will be pivotal in ensuring their resilience and long-term viability.

Bitcoin Surges 23% In A Week As Investor Optimism Returns

Bitcoin was on track for a weekly gain of around 23% on Friday as a series of positive macroeconomic and policy developments boosted investor sentiment.

The cryptocurrency was trading about 6% higher at roughly $77,000, up from around $62,800 at the start of the week. Crypto-related stocks also rallied, with Coinbase and Circle gaining more than 9%, while Strategy rose 7%.

Macro Factors Fuel Rally

Bitcoin’s latest surge began Wednesday after Treasury yields fell sharply following a major intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market. Lower yields eased pressure on risk assets and helped trigger a broader move into cryptocurrencies.

The rally was further amplified by a major short squeeze. Around $2.7 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass.

Max Stuedlein, head of Partnerships at Sygnum APAC, said the move reflected an alignment of macroeconomic and policy catalysts, including the Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated government debt.

Clarity Act Boosts Sentiment

Investor confidence improved further on Thursday as the White House and crypto industry leaders made a final push to advance the Clarity Act in the coming weeks.

The legislation is widely viewed as a potential catalyst for the crypto market, although its chances of passing remain relatively limited.

Despite the rally, bitcoin remains well below its 2026 high of $94,820 reached in January and its all-time high of $126,198, set last October.

Analysts See More Volatility Ahead

Lucy Gazmararian, founder and managing partner at Token Bay Capital, said the crypto market may be approaching the end of its bear cycle.

She expects bitcoin could experience one more decline of around 20% before the market turns, pointing to historical cycles and the recent liquidation of heavily leveraged short positions.

Gazmararian also described bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, while warning that its short-term price remains highly volatile and driven by market cycles.

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