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Eastern Mediterranean Shipping Charts Uneven Course To Decarbonization

Survey Reveals Incremental Progress and Challenges

A recent survey conducted by the Hellenic Marine Environment Protection Association (HELMEPA), in collaboration with the Lloyd’s Register Foundation, highlights the Eastern Mediterranean shipping industry’s evolving commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The METAVASEA survey, which gathered 898 responses from shipping companies, seafarers, ports, suppliers, and civil society between June and November 2024, offers a nuanced view of an industry at the crossroads of tradition and transformation.

Emissions Focus and Alternative Fuels

The survey indicates that 74 percent of shipping companies have either aligned or are planning to align with the International Maritime Organization’s net-zero targets. However, emphasis remains predominantly on direct emissions, with 73 percent of respondents focusing on them, while lesser attention is given to indirect (Scope 2) and supply-chain (Scope 3) emissions, at 9 percent and 4 percent respectively. Biofuels lead as the most adopted alternative, cited by 62 percent of respondents, followed by green hydrogen (25 percent) and ammonia (19 percent).

Operational Concerns and Technological Adoption

Despite these efforts, nearly half (42 percent) of participants flagged infrastructure and compatibility issues, particularly as new technologies such as onboard carbon capture, wind and solar power, and air lubrication remain fraught with concerns over cost, vessel readiness, and safety. For seafarers, crew fatigue tops the list of safety concerns at 70 percent, even as a notable training deficit persists, with 64 percent reporting a lack of decarbonisation-related training in the past two years.

Workforce Development and Strategic Gaps

The findings reveal a dual need for technical expertise—including emissions monitoring, energy management, and handling of new fuels—alongside essential soft skills such as leadership and strategic thinking. Larger fleets demonstrate greater progress in emissions tracking and ESG strategy adoption, whereas smaller operators cite limited resources as a significant barrier.

Ports, Infrastructure, and Misaligned Public Perceptions

Ports and suppliers face their own set of challenges. Only 20 percent of ports currently offer VLSFO bunkering, even as the Mediterranean prepares for its designation as a SOx Emission Control Area in May 2025. With 40 percent of ports lacking decarbonisation interventions and 60 percent missing emissions monitoring systems, infrastructure gaps remain a significant hurdle. Meanwhile, public perceptions are at odds with reality—many erroneously estimate that shipping accounts for 50–70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, compared to an actual figure closer to 3 percent.

A Roadmap For Sustained Green Transition

The METAVASEA project, running from 2023 until 2027, aims to map the skills and infrastructure necessary for a successful green transition in this strategically vital region. With a network that includes six core partners, twelve associates, and over sixty stakeholders, the project intends to track ongoing trends and training needs, providing a critical framework for future progress in decarbonization.

Bank of Cyprus Upgrade Signals Fresh Optimism For Greek And Cypriot Banks

Regional Banks Enter A More Favorable Cycle

Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank are well positioned to benefit from a renewed re-rating of Greek and Cypriot bank stocks, according to Cyprus-based investment firm Roemer Capital, which upgraded Bank of Cyprus to a buy rating and reaffirmed its positive view on Eurobank.

The firm cited easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic growth in Greece and Cyprus, lower funding costs and Greece’s expected transition to developed-market status as the main factors supporting the sector.

Roemer Capital also lowered its cost of equity assumptions, updated its forecasts following first-quarter 2026 results and extended its valuation horizon to the end of 2027, raising target prices across its banking coverage.

Bank Of Cyprus Gets The Largest Upgrade

Bank of Cyprus received the biggest revision, with Roemer Capital upgrading the stock from hold to buy and setting a target price of €11.10, implying potential total upside of 27%.

The firm highlighted the bank’s strong capital generation, profitability and projected 100% dividend payout, describing it as the strongest capital-return story among the banks under coverage. Roemer Capital maintained its buy rating on Eurobank, assigning a target price of €4.90 and forecasting potential upside of 28%. The report said the bank is well placed to benefit from loan growth, improving operating performance and merger-and-acquisition synergies.

National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank also retained buy ratings, with expected returns ranging from 25% to 36%. Optima Bank was upgraded to buy, while Alpha Bank remained at hold on valuation grounds.

Why Growth Still Sets The Region Apart

According to Roemer Capital, Greek and Cypriot banks continue to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals than many western European peers. The report pointed to faster economic growth, healthier balance sheets, low levels of non-performing exposures, capital ratios approaching 20% and strong customer deposit bases.

Analysts expect performing loans across the sector to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% to 8% through 2028, supported by private investment, digitalisation, green manufacturing, supply-chain expansion and a gradual recovery in household lending.

The report also said the conclusion of lending under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility is unlikely to materially affect credit growth, as banks have already shifted back towards traditional commercial lending. Roemer Capital expects Euribor to remain between 2.2% and 2.5%, a level it believes should support both lending activity and net interest margins.

Geopolitics, Valuation And Market Structure Support The Case

The report said improving geopolitical conditions have strengthened the investment outlook, noting that Brent crude prices have largely returned to pre-war levels while Greek government bond yields have stabilised at around 3.5%. Although geopolitical risks remain, Roemer Capital believes the likelihood of a major inflationary shock or significant pressure on bank profitability has eased.

Another important catalyst identified by the firm is Greece’s expected promotion to developed-market status by FTSE Russell, STOXX and MSCI over the coming months.

According to the report, the reclassification should improve liquidity and attract a broader base of international investors. Roemer Capital also said Euronext’s acquisition of the Athens Exchange is expected to strengthen market infrastructure and increase international visibility, particularly for Bank of Cyprus and Optima Bank.

The firm noted that Bank of Cyprus has already benefited from its Athens listing, with average daily trading value increasing from less than €400,000 before its September 2024 move to nearly €6 million afterwards.

Economic Momentum Remains A Core Tailwind

Roemer Capital said both Greece and Cyprus have moved beyond post-crisis recovery and are now supported by private-sector-led growth. For Cyprus, the report highlighted recent tax reform and efforts to simplify the legal and regulatory framework, while also noting that limited foreign banking competition continues to support domestic lenders.

Overall, Roemer Capital expects Greek and Cypriot banks to remain well-positioned for profitable loan growth over the coming years.

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