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Decline In Business Loans Amidst Economic Uncertainty

The latest data from the Central Bank of Cyprus indicates a notable decline in the issuance of new business loans during the first five months of 2024. The reduction is largely attributed to the prevailing high interest rates and overarching economic uncertainties, which have deterred businesses from taking on new debt.

Decrease in Loan Issuance

New business loans amounted to €814 million from January to May 2024, marking a significant drop from €971 million during the same period in 2023, representing a decrease of 16.1%. This downward trend contrasts with the increase in loans to households, which rose by 6% to €556 million, up from €524 million in the previous year.

Factors Influencing the Decline

The economic environment in Cyprus has been characterised by heightened interest rates, making borrowing more expensive and less attractive for businesses. Additionally, the broader economic uncertainties have prompted companies to adopt a more cautious approach, opting to restructure existing debts rather than seek new loans. The data reflects a broader trend where businesses are focusing on managing their current financial obligations in a volatile economic climate.

Restructuring Over New Borrowing

The preference for debt restructuring over new borrowing is evident from the data. Business loan restructurings decreased to €731.1 million from €951.7 million in 2023. This decline indicates a strategic shift among businesses towards consolidating and managing existing debts instead of expanding their borrowing.

Household Loans on the Rise

In contrast to the business sector, household loans have shown resilience and growth. The increase in household loan issuance suggests a stable demand for personal and residential financing. This growth may be supported by favourable government policies and economic measures aimed at boosting consumer confidence and spending.

Implications and Future Outlook

The decline in business loans could have significant implications for the Cypriot economy. Reduced borrowing can lead to lower investment in business expansion and innovation, potentially impacting economic growth. However, the focus on debt restructuring may lead to healthier balance sheets and more sustainable financial practices in the long run.

Bitcoin Surges 23% In A Week As Investor Optimism Returns

Bitcoin was on track for a weekly gain of around 23% on Friday as a series of positive macroeconomic and policy developments boosted investor sentiment.

The cryptocurrency was trading about 6% higher at roughly $77,000, up from around $62,800 at the start of the week. Crypto-related stocks also rallied, with Coinbase and Circle gaining more than 9%, while Strategy rose 7%.

Macro Factors Fuel Rally

Bitcoin’s latest surge began Wednesday after Treasury yields fell sharply following a major intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market. Lower yields eased pressure on risk assets and helped trigger a broader move into cryptocurrencies.

The rally was further amplified by a major short squeeze. Around $2.7 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass.

Max Stuedlein, head of Partnerships at Sygnum APAC, said the move reflected an alignment of macroeconomic and policy catalysts, including the Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated government debt.

Clarity Act Boosts Sentiment

Investor confidence improved further on Thursday as the White House and crypto industry leaders made a final push to advance the Clarity Act in the coming weeks.

The legislation is widely viewed as a potential catalyst for the crypto market, although its chances of passing remain relatively limited.

Despite the rally, bitcoin remains well below its 2026 high of $94,820 reached in January and its all-time high of $126,198, set last October.

Analysts See More Volatility Ahead

Lucy Gazmararian, founder and managing partner at Token Bay Capital, said the crypto market may be approaching the end of its bear cycle.

She expects bitcoin could experience one more decline of around 20% before the market turns, pointing to historical cycles and the recent liquidation of heavily leveraged short positions.

Gazmararian also described bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary debasement, while warning that its short-term price remains highly volatile and driven by market cycles.

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