The Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) recently reported a deceleration in the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for Q1 2024. This trend highlights a noteworthy shift in the property market, attributed to a normalisation in demand coupled with increased supply and elevated interest rates. Such factors are pivotal in understanding the dynamics of the current real estate landscape in Cyprus.
Quarterly and Annual Trends
The RPPI, which tracks changes in property prices across flats and houses, increased by 1.6% in Q1 2024, following a 2.3% rise in the previous quarter. Specifically, house prices rose by 0.8%, while flat prices surged by 3.4%. On an annual basis, the RPPI saw a 7.8% increase compared to Q1 2023, with flat prices up by 13.9% and house prices by 4.7%.
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District-Specific Changes
The deceleration was not uniform across Cyprus. Pafos and Famagusta districts experienced accelerated house price increases of 3.1% and 4.4% quarterly, and 11.2% and 11.8% annually, respectively. In contrast, Nicosia, Limassol, and Larnaca saw slower quarterly growth of 0.2%, 1.5%, and 2.2%, respectively, with annual increases of 4%, 9.2%, and 10.7%.
Flat prices exhibited a similar pattern. Quarterly, Nicosia recorded a 0.8% rise, Limassol 3.7%, Larnaca 4.3%, Pafos 3.5%, and Famagusta 10.7%. Annually, Limassol, Larnaca, and Famagusta showed significant increases of 16.5%, 18.1%, and 16.5%, while Nicosia and Pafos noted more moderate rises of 5.1% and 21.4%.
Economic Implications
This deceleration signals a potential shift towards a more balanced market. The combination of stabilised demand, increased supply, and the high cost of borrowing due to rising interest rates are crucial factors. Additionally, the minor reduction in construction material costs, despite remaining high, impacts overall market dynamics.
Looking Ahead
The CBC’s caution about future deceleration reflects broader economic concerns. As interest rates continue to rise, the affordability of mortgages may further influence demand. Additionally, the construction sector’s response to material costs will be critical in shaping future supply levels.
